Fantasy football is a game of expecting the unexpected. Every year the preseason ADP never looks like the end-of-season results. However, the most volatile position is arguably quarterback.
Last year, the top five quarterbacks in the preseason ADP were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Yet, only Allen and Mahomes ended the season in the top five, finishing as the top-two scoring quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was the QB3 last season, while Joe Burrow and Geno Smith rounded out the top five. Hurts and Burrow had a top-10 ADP during the preseason, but Smith was well off the fantasy radar.
So which quarterbacks could be this year’s version of Smith? Let’s look at four quarterbacks with an ADP outside the top 12 that could end the season in the top five.
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QB2s with Top-5 Potential
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | QB13
Unfortunately, a concussion played a role in Tagovailoa ending the 2022 season as the QB15. However, the former first-round pick has significant upside. He averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game, nearly four points more per contest than his 2021 average. Furthermore, the addition of Tyreek Hill made Miami’s offense more explosive, as Tagovailoa averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt – a career high.
Tagovailoa had a 3.12-1 touchdown to interceptions ratio last season. More importantly, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game last year in the 12 contests he played at least 40% of the snaps. The former Alabama star would have been the QB5 in 2022 with that fantasy points per game average.
Tagovailoa should be even better heading into his second season in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | QB14
Last year, the Green Bay Packers traded away Davante Adams and let Marquez Valdes-Scantling leave in free agency. Yet, Rodgers had 26 passing touchdowns, the seventh-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the future Hall-of-Famer had that many touchdown passes despite playing most of the year with a thumb injury on his throwing hand. Unfortunately, Rodgers averaged only 14.1 fantasy points per game last year, the lowest of his career.
Rodgers averaged at least 20.8 fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2020. Furthermore, he has 12 top-10 finishes in his 15 years as a starting QB, including eight top-two finishes.
Rodgers will have several weapons in New York. Garrett Wilson is an emerging star, while the Jets added Rodgers’ favorite receiver from last year – Allen Lazard – in free agency. Rodgers could have a top-three finish this year if he stays healthy.
Geno Smith (SEA) | QB16
You know the old saying – if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. Therefore, let’s go back to the well with Smith. Despite finishing as a top-five quarterback last year, the ADP has him outside the top 15. Yet, the veteran quarterback had a career year in 2022.
Smith had 30 passing touchdowns, the fourth-most in the NFL, finishing only behind Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. Meanwhile, the Seahawks only made his situation more fantasy-friendly this offseason.
Seattle did their homework on the rookie quarterback draft class. However, the team had 10 picks this year and didn’t draft a quarterback. Instead, the Seahawks used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Last year, Smith had two top 20 wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Now he has a trio of star wide receivers. After throwing 30 touchdowns last season, Smith could finish closer to 40 this year, thanks to the team’s offensive moves.
Trey Lance (SF) | QB26
Yes, Lance has to earn the starting role in San Francisco before becoming a top-five fantasy quarterback. However, Brock Purdy isn’t guaranteed the starting role either.
We’ve seen backup quarterbacks under Kyle Shanahan have a hot run before reverting to their natural position, including C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens. Lance was a No. 3 overall pick that has barely played in his career. Yet, he’s been productive when on the field.
Lance started two games as a rookie and played the second half of another matchup. In those games, he averaged 18 fantasy points per contest. However, considering that he only played 10 quarters of football instead of 12, the former North Dakota State star would have averaged 21.6 fantasy points per matchup. That would have made him the QB5 on a points-per-game basis last year.
Lance has the top supporting cast in the NFL. If he earns the starting role, the third-year quarterback has top-five potential.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
