Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through May 15, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
The Mariners have been playing some solid baseball so far this month, but, surprisingly, Rodriguez’s bat has not been a major factor in their success. The 2022 AL Rookie of the Year has managed just a .561 OPS while going 8-for-49 (.163) overall through 12 games in May. His 32.7 K% is obviously not good either. Still, there are multiple underlying metrics that indicate he has been dealing with far more than his share of poor luck.
Let’s start with a .207 BABIP. That is ridiculously low for any hitter. For Rodriguez, it’s laughable, especially considering his 45.2 HardHit%, 91.4 mph EV, and 25.8 LD% during this 12-game stretch. He has already shown some signs of picking things up a bit, going 6-for-23 (.261) with a double and a homer over the last five games. That improvement has coincided with a move out of the leadoff spot.
Musgrove did not make his season debut until April 22 due to injury. Through four turns in the Padres’ rotation, the All-Star righty has only once surrendered less than three earned runs, leading to an ugly 6.63 ERA on the year. However, his 3.93 xERA is one reason for encouragement.
The long ball has ailed Musgrove so far, as he has allowed five of them already in just 19 innings. Lest anyone forget, three of those came during a matchup against the Giants at Mexico City’s Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium. That game saw the two sides combine for 11 total home runs in a 16-11 Padres win, showcasing exactly what can transpire in the thin air that can be found at more than 7,300 feet above sea level.
Aside from that start, Musgrove has allowed only 1.15 HR/9. That mark is right in line with his career 1.47 HR/9, as are his 93.3 mph heat, 87.3 mph EV, and 11.5 SwStr%. Given that swinging-strike rate, Musgrove’s 21.6 K% should pick up going forward. He does need to improve upon a 9.1 BB%, but his 6.5% mark over the last two years suggests he will.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Bellinger went on a three-week run in April that had many believing he might be “back”. From April 10-30, he produced an eye-popping 1.193 OPS with six home runs and five doubles in 16 games. While the 2019 MVP and two-time All-Star has certainly earned the renewed optimism given him, some of the chinks in his armor have begun to be exploited in more recent days.
Bellinger has so far turned in just a .226/.276/.302 line across his first 13 games this month and picked up only two hits – a pair of singles – over his last 20 at-bats. He has yet to go deep in May while his strikeout rate has ballooned. This dip in production has been the result of a negative turn in multiple measures.
O-Swing% is the number of pitches outside the zone that a batter chases.
| GB% / FB% | HardHit% | K% | O-Swing% | |
| April 10-30 | 29.4 / 56.9 | 35.3 | 16.9 | 28.0 |
| May 1-15 | 50.0 / 30.0 | 20.0 | 24.1 | 36.3 |
Wells has been the Orioles’ best starting pitcher to this point, and it really hasn’t even been close. The fact he did not begin the campaign in the rotation seems silly now. Over his last five starts, the 28-year-old righty hasn’t just been good. He’s actually been among the best in the entire league.
In that stretch, Wells has cruised to the tune of a 2.05 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 28-to-8 K/BB ratio across 30 2/3 innings. His trick has been magically keeping runners off base by making potential base hits disappear into thin air. Despite a 42.1 HardHit%, 11.8 Barrel%, and a mere 36.8 GB%, he has limited the opposition to a microscopic .135 AVG (.127 BABIP) and 100-percent strand rate. Only time will tell when this Houdini act will end, but Wells’ 4.28 xFIP illustrates what the result will likely turn into once it inevitably does.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
