Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through May 8, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Harris is coming off a stellar season that saw him post an .853 OPS with 19 home runs and 20 steals across 114 games. Those numbers earned him N.L. Rookie of the Year honors at age 21 and catapulted his stock in fantasy drafts this year. So far, those that invested in the dynamic outfielder have not seen positive returns.
Harris spent three weeks on the IL in April. He has gone just 5-for-22 since returning on April 28, but that has included two doubles and a homer as well as one steal and a 4-to-4 K/BB ratio across 26 plate appearances. Underneath all of that is a 55.6 HardHit% and 22.2 Barrel%. The frustrations from Harris should be relieved soon, so stay patient.
Similar to Harris, Taillon has already spent time on the IL. The 31-year-old righty missed more than two weeks with a groin injury and has made just one start since returning. That start came May 4 on the road against the Nationals, and it resulted in Taillon giving up three runs on three hits while striking out four across three innings. Notably, he was limited to 42 pitches (30 strikes) in the outing.
After that effort, Taillon is lugging around a lofty 5.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. There are underlying signs of promise, however. Let’s start with his 27.0 K%, which would go down as a career high. The increased strikeout rate seems to largely be the result of a significant uptick in usage of an effective cutter. On top of that, despite almost mirroring or even slightly improved EV and hard-hit rates, Taillon is dealing with an elevated .347 BABIP compared to a .275 mark with the Yankees over the last two seasons.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Outman exploded out of the gate as a rookie this year, slugging a ridiculous .709 with 14 extra-base hits and 19 RBI over his first 24 games. That was certainly never going to be sustainable, and the negative regression has already begun to set in during the last couple of weeks.
In his last 12 games, even though he has still managed one homer, a pair of doubles, and two steals, Outman has produced just a .191/.306/.310 slash line across 49 plate appearances. The most alarming measure in that span is his 42.9 K%. He’s still hitting the ball very hard (52.4%). The problem is that he’s not hitting it very often. Outman’s .273 AVG (.240 xBA) and .570 SLG (.455 xSLG) are likely to come down even more before leveling off.
Ober has already shown the ability to be a steady performer at the big-league level. The towering righty came into the year with a 3.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 24.3 K% over 31 career starts in the last two years. Still, he began this season in the minors as basically the odd man out in the Twins’ rotational depth. Injuries have since opened the door for Ober, and he has taken full advantage.
In three starts since his callup, Ober has surrendered only two runs on 10 hits and six walks while striking out 16 across 18 1/3 innings. He is generating a ton of weak contact (87.3 EV, 26.1 HardHit%) which has led to a .217 BABIP. Although, that is actually where the adjustment to the norm should soon begin.
Ober’s career BABIP is .281. His mark may not go all the way back there this year, but .217 is going to be virtually impossible to sustain. It is also important to look at his opposition so far this year. Ober could not have asked for better matchups than what he’s undoubtedly benefitted from to this point, as the Nationals (3.9 runs per game), Royals (4.1), and Guardians (3.5) each rank among the bottom-seven offenses in the league.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.