Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through May 1, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Josh Naylor (1B,OF – CLE)
Naylor enjoyed a breakout season for the Guardians in 2022. Over 122 games, he slugged a healthy .452 with 20 homers and 28 doubles. His underlying metrics this year suggest he should be matching, or even improving, on that offensive output. Instead, the 25-year-old first baseman’s stat sheet lists a .337 SLG with just five extra-base hits through his first 100 plate appearances of the campaign.
Simply put, the combination of a 90.6-mph average EV, 46.7 HardHit%, 9.3 Barrel%, and 20.0 LD% should not result in such a paltry slugging percentage. Hence the reason for Naylor’s xSLG to read .486 not to mention his .281 xBA being masked by a .213 actual batting average. He has at least made his hits count so far, driving in 17 runs over 26 games.
With eight of those RBI coming in his last six games, the course correction has already begun. Naylor has gone 7-for-21 with two doubles and a homer in that stretch. Look for his production to really take off in the coming weeks.
Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
After making a combined 11 starts (48 1/3 IP) over the last two years, Sale entered 2023 looking to rebound from his health issues and reassert himself as a front-line starting pitcher. Through his first three starts, there was reason to question if he could.
In his first 12 innings of the season, Sale labored to an 11.25 ERA while surrendering 18 hits (5 HR) and seven walks. He was giving up an alarming rate of hard contact and struggling with command. Over his three starts since, Sale has shown signs of turning things around beginning with a 3.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 17 1/3 innings. Take a look at the table below for more encouraging trends.
| 2023 | Fastball Velo/Usage | HardHit% | EV | AVG against | BABIP | BB% | HR allowed |
| First 3 Starts | 93.2 mph / 52.8% | 48.6 | 91.2 mph | .321 | .406 | 10.9 | 5 |
| Last 3 Starts | 94.3 mph / 57.8% | 31.3 | 88.8 mph | .234 | .313 | 4.3 | 0 |
Players Due for Negative Regression
J.D. Davis (1B,3B – SF)
Davis has been getting it done in a big way for the Giants to this point. Through 25 games of his age-30 season, he is sporting a .291/.361/.523 slash line with six long balls and a team-leading 17 RBI. Davis has been able to put those numbers up despite a 27.8 K% and 55.0 GB%. His ridiculous 40.0-percent HR/FB rate is in no way sustainable for anyone.
The well has already dried up a bit for Davis. Even though he has popped a couple of homers over his last eight games, Davis has hit just .214 with a 35.3 K% and a more reasonable .286 BABIP compared to the .375 mark he was previously riding.
Shane Bieber (SP – CLE)
“This cannot keep going for Bieber.” It’s been said many times by many observers in the past couple of years. Yet, the Cleveland ace has maintained his success in spite of the naysayers. Still, this cannot keep going.
The alarm bells are currently at 11 for Bieber. He started the season in fine fashion, firing six shutout frames in Seattle on Opening Day. He did manage to avoid giving up more than three runs while working at least 5 2/3 innings in each of his five April starts, but he owes much of that to plain good fortune.
That good fortune certainly includes benefitting from matchups against the Athletics, Nationals, and Marlins – each rank among the bottom six teams in Runs per Game. On top of that, Bieber has managed to limit the opposition to a .222 AVG (.261 BABIP) despite a 47.9 HardHit%, 25.8 LD%, and a mere 17.8 K%. His current 3.11 ERA on the year is hiding a 4.73 xERA and his .230 AVG against is covering up a .280 xBA. Do not expect the positive results to continue for Bieber at the level they have.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
