We have reached the point in the offseason where fantasy players have nothing to do but evaluate their teams. However, the NFL is coming off its busiest time of the offseason. The 2023 NFL Draft is barely a week old, yet several players have seen their fantasy value rise or fall from the three-day event.
Some players saw their team add competition at their position. Others now have more job security than three weeks ago. We’ve seen a few blockbuster trades over the past few weeks, including one involving a four-time MVP. Let’s look at the latest trends and see which players are heading up and which are heading down.
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Post-NFL Draft Player Outlooks
Players Trending Up
The QB1 should send the team’s front office an early Christmas present. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, the Chiefs spent a second-round pick on Rashee Rice. The former SMU receiver is a scoring machine, totaling 19 receiving touchdowns over the past two years. Meanwhile, Kansas City spent a third-round pick on offensive tackle Wanya Morris and signed veteran Donovan Smith in free agency. Then, for the icing on the cake, the Chiefs re-signed Jerick McKinnon. The veteran running back was one of Mahomes’ favorite targets last year, totaling 56 receptions for 512 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, all career highs.
Harris struggled over the first half of the 2022 season. However, he ended the year on fire. The star running back was the RB4 over the final eight weeks last season, averaging 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, the Steelers made several moves this offseason to improve their offensive line. They signed Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig in free agency. Then Pittsburgh traded up on draft night for Broderick Jones. Yet, the team didn’t stop there. The Steelers also used their third-round pick on Darnell Washington, the best blocking tight end in the draft class. Furthermore, Pittsburgh didn’t sign a veteran in free agency or spend a draft pick on a running back.
After the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette this offseason, White saw his fantasy value skyrocket. However, the rumors that Tampa Bay was targeting Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in the 2023 NFL Draft brought White’s stock back down to Earth. Yet, the Buccaneers didn’t spend any draft capital on a running back. While they signed Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent, the rookie isn’t a threat to White’s starting role. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay spent a second-round pick on Cody Mauch, improving their offensive line.
Detroit lost DJ Chark in free agency but signed Marvin Jones as a replacement. Unfortunately, Jameson Williams will miss the first six weeks this season after getting suspended for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Meanwhile, the Lions used two of their first three draft pick on offensive skill players. However, neither was a wide receiver. Furthermore, the team waited until the seventh round to draft a wide receiver, selecting North Carolina’s Antoine Green. After finishing seventh in receptions last year (106), St. Brown could finish top three in 2023.
Players Trending Down
Last year Tennessee spent a third-round pick on Malik Willis. However, the former Liberty quarterback was awful as a rookie, making him no threat to Tannehill. Unfortunately, the veteran saw his stock tank over the draft weekend. After the Titans used their first-round pick on Peter Skoronski, the team stabbed Tannehill in the back. They traded up in the second round to secure his replacement in Will Levis. Furthermore, Tennessee waited until the seventh round to add a wide receiver, selecting Colton Dowell. After the team released Robert Woods earlier this offseason, Treylon Burks is the only starting-caliber wide receiver on the roster.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Patterson came out of nowhere in 2021, ending the year as the RB9, averaging 13 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the veteran running back saw his fantasy value tank last year with the emergence of Tyler Allgeier. Yet, Patterson still had some value as a flex option in deeper PPR leagues. Unfortunately, that changed when the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson. The former Longhorn will be the featured back in Atlanta, with Allgeier sliding into the backup/high-end handcuff role. That means Patterson is the odd man out. Hopefully, he gets cut or traded and lands in a solid situation as a team’s pass-catching back where he could have some value this season.
While he started his rookie season dealing with injuries and drops, Watson took off in the second half. He finished second in receiving yards, only behind Allen Lazard. When the Lazard joined the New York Jets this offseason, Watson became the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Green Bay. However, the Packers spent all three of their Day 2 draft picks on pass catchers. They spent a second-rounder on Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave and a third-round pick on Tucker Kraft. While he remains the WR1 on the team, Watson has plenty of competition for targets. Furthermore, the second-year receiver is now catching passes from Jordan Love instead of Aaron Rodgers.
After totaling 103 receptions for 1,038 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2021, Renfrow struggled with injuries last year and regressed. Unfortunately, his fantasy value has tanked this offseason. The Raiders released Derek Carr, who considered Renfrow a security blanket. More importantly, the team added multiple receivers over the past several weeks. They signed Josh McDaniels’ favorite Jakobi Meyers in free agency. Las Vegas also added DeAndre Carter, Phillip Dorsett, and Cam Sims. Then, the Raiders used a second-round pick on Michael Mayer and a third-rounder on Tre Tucker. Hopefully, Renfrow gets traded to a less crowded situation. Maybe the New Orleans Saints will reunite the slot receiver with his favorite quarterback.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
