There is an old saying: what goes up must come down. Thanks to gravity, that applies to everything on Earth. It also applies to players in the NFL. No athlete can play at a high level forever. Even Tom Brady fell victim to this rule. Every football player will eventually have zero fantasy value. It’s just a matter of when it happens.
Dynasty Football Startup Strategy
Basic Information
When players hit their peak, they are at the highest point of their careers. Unfortunately, the player’s production will start to decline after a few years However, how fast will the production drop? How big is the drop-off?
The best feeling in fantasy football is when players on your team are performing at their peak. Meanwhile, it’s awful when you have players struggling on your team. Furthermore, the worst feeling is when you can only trade away your players at a massive discount or can’t at all.
You want to acquire players before their peak to avoid overpaying for them. More importantly, you want to sell players just before they begin their decline. Otherwise, you are forced to trade them for half the return or less than you could have gotten a year or two ago. It is better to trade away a player a year too early than a year too late.
Is There a Right Age?
There is plenty of research to determine when the prime or peak years are for every position in the NFL. Most fantasy players have heard the rule, “don’t have running backs older than 26 on your roster.” Generally, that’s a rule you want to follow, but it’s not written in stone. Last year, seven of the top 10 running backs were 26 years or older. The three exceptions were Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Tony Pollard. However, Jacobs is the only one who won’t be 26 by the start of the upcoming season.
Meanwhile, we’ve seen running backs’ production fall off a cliff quickly before turning 26 years old. A prime example is Todd Gurley. The former Los Angeles Rams star running back was a fantasy cheat code in 2017 and 2018. He totaled 535 rushing attempts for 2,556 yards and 30 touchdowns. Gurley also added another 123 receptions for 1,368 yards and 10 touchdowns in the passing game over those two years. However, his production took a hit in 2019.
After averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt in 2017 and 2018, Gurley saw his yards per attempt drop to 3.8 in 2019. The number was the second-lowest of his career at that time. Furthermore, we saw signs of decline, and so did the Rams. Even before Gurley’s regressed 2019 season, the Rams saw the writing on the wall and used a 2019 third-round pick on Darrell Henderson Jr.
Anyone who traded away Gurley after the 2018 season got a bounty of picks and players. However, anyone who waited until after the 2019 season earned much less. If you were stubborn and held onto Gurley expecting a bounce-back 2020 season, you almost certainly regretted it. Furthermore, you likely ended up dropping him from your team before the start of the 2021 season. Remember, Gurley didn’t turn 26 years old until August 2020.
We have also seen running backs put up fantasy-relevant production well into their 30s. Frank Gore was 34 years old in 2019. Yet, he ended the year as the RB19 in half-point PPR scoring. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson was the RB19 in 2018 at 33 years old. Both running backs were weekly fantasy starters into their mid-30s. While everyone won’t be like them, fantasy players shouldn’t be in a rush to trade away every running back over the age of 26.
Follow the Data?
If you want to look up the best age window to draft each position, you can find it on the internet. However, I am not a fan of the data. Your gut instinct is the best tool in fantasy football.
Every number can be disputed or pushed back on with another number. Numbers are meaningful and provide context, but they can’t foresee everything that goes into a player.
Age is a factor when players decline, but so are several other things like injury and situation. If Gurley didn’t have the chronic knee condition, he likely would have had a few more productive years in his career before flaming out. Another example is Derrick Henry. Thanks to his situation in Tennessee early in his career, Henry had another top-five season in 2022.
The data would have told you to sell Henry after the 2019 season when he was 25 years old. However, the superstar went on to lead the NFL in rushing yards (2,027), rushing touchdowns (17), and non-PPR fantasy points per game (25.2). While he missed half the year in 2021 because of a foot injury, Henry still finished as the RB1 in non-PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis (21.9 per game). Then he was the RB3 last year.
Henry has remained an elite running back past the age of 26 because of the limited workload he saw early in his career. Over the first three years of his career, Henry missed one game and averaged just 10.7 rushing attempts per game. By comparison, Gurley missed four games and averaged 17.9 rushing attempts per game over the first three years of his career. The workload that Henry didn’t receive early in his career extended the window for his prime years in the NFL.
How to Approach the Draft?
The answer to this question depends on your mindset for your team. Do you want to compete right away or in a few years? If you want to contend for the championship this year, you should draft players at their peak. You want to target running backs like Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Henry early in the draft. Then you want to target running backs like Joe Mixon and James Conner in the middle rounds. These five running backs could have a massive loss in value over the next year or so. However, they all finished as top-24 running backs in half-point PPR scoring last year.
On the other hand, if your goal is to tank the first year and contend starting in year two, you want to avoid those players. Instead, you want to target younger running backs who haven’t hit their peak yet or just hit it last year. Potential early-round targets include Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Travis Etienne Jr. Meanwhile, Tyjae Spears and Isaiah Spiller are two of my favorite targets in the middle and later rounds.
The first trio of backs has shown to be great when on the field. Meanwhile, Spears and Spillers will have somewhat limited roles in 2023. However, things can change with Henry and Ekeler being free agents after this season. While both veterans have been elite over the past few years, their team might go with the cheaper and younger option.
While I have focused mainly on running backs, the mindset applies to all positions. If you are playing to win right away, Travis Kelce should be the TE1 in your rankings. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts should be your TE1 if you are tanking in the first year or two. However, Patrick Mahomes should be your QB1, regardless of your contending timeline.
Potential Draft Targets
Here are eight of my favorite players to target when using the Player Age startup draft strategy this year.
Win Right Away Teams
Building for the Future Teams
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
