The rookie class of 2023 might not be a gold mine for dynasty leaguers, but it’s not without its charms.
We’re getting a crown-jewel RB prospect in Bijan Robinson, and there’s RB depth galore. After the Great QB Drought of 2022, there are some high-quality quarterback prospects joining the NFL this year. The TE crop is extraordinarily talented and deep.
On the other hand …
This WR class is thin compared to recent WR classes. There are probably only five QBs worth your attention. There aren’t many safe bets at RB after the top two or three guys.
I’m going to discuss six of the players I’m targeting in this year’s rookie drafts — my “must-haves” if you will. But I won’t classify any slam-dunk first-round picks as must-haves, because the first round of superflex drafts are basically a paint-by-numbers exercise.
The rookie class of 2023 might not be a gold mine for dynasty leaguers, but it’s not without its charms.
We’re getting a crown-jewel RB prospect in Bijan Robinson, and there’s RB depth galore. After the Great QB Drought of 2022, there are some high-quality quarterback prospects joining the NFL this year. The TE crop is extraordinarily talented and deep.
On the other hand …
This WR class is thin compared to recent WR classes. There are probably only five QBs worth your attention. There aren’t many safe bets at RB after the top two or three guys.
I’m going to discuss six of the players I’m targeting in this year’s rookie drafts — my “must-haves” if you will. But I won’t classify any slam-dunk first-round picks as must-haves, because the first round of superflex drafts are basically a paint-by-numbers exercise.
Must-Have Dynasty Rookies
Here are the players I’m targeting at the end of the first round of rookie drafts and beyond:
Size snobs won’t be attracted to the 5-foot-9, 188-pound Achane, but he’ll quicken the pulses of speed enthusiasts. Achane’s 4.32-second 40 time at the combine was the fastest among RBs, and he’s run the 200 meters in 20.2 seconds for the Texas A&M track team.
Speed is Achane’s calling card, but he has surprisingly good contact balance for a smaller back and will power through arm tackles. Texas A&M often ran Achane between the tackles, and he was fearless and effective on inside runs.
FantasyPros’ college football analyst, Thor Nystrom, compares Achane to Jahvid Best, an electrifying college performer at Cal whose NFL career never got off the ground due to repeated concussions. I like that comp, but Achane reminds me of Warrick Dunn, a 5-foot-9, 180-pound warrior who excelled as a pass-catching back but also had eight seasons with more than 200 carries.
The Dolphins had limited draft capital (just four total picks and no first-rounder) but spent a third-round pick on Achane. The fleet-footed Achane should be a hand-in-glove fit for Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone running scheme. Raheem Mostert (another smaller RB with speed) had a mid-career breakout in that scheme when McDaniel was the running-game coordinator in San Francisco and played well in Miami last year, but Mostert is 31 and has an extensive injury history. Achane is a younger, more electric version of Mostert and is a far better pass catcher. It will be fascinating to see how McDaniel deploys the explosive Achane.
LaPorta won’t be the first tight end to come off the board in rookie drafts — Dalton Kincaid will have that honor — but could end up being a highly productive pass catcher in the NFL.
The 6-foot-3, 245-pound LaPorta was a combine standout who ran a 4.59 and also fared well in the jumps and agility drills. The athleticism shows up on the field, where he consistently gets open and then causes headaches for defenders after the catch.
For the last two seasons, LaPorta has been far and away the best weapon in a toothless Iowa offense. Over LaPorta’s last two college seasons, the Hawkeyes averaged 168.8 passing yards per game. LaPorta nevertheless had more than 650 receiving yards in each of those seasons. No other Iowa pass catcher had even 400 receiving yards for Iowa in 2021 or 2022. An early second-round pick, LaPorta is likely to start for the Lions right away and could be fantasy-viable immediately.
Mingo was an afterthought in the rookie mocks I did in the months leading up to the NFL Draft, typically available in the third or fourth round. His rookie-draft value took a rocket ride when the Panthers selected him early in the second round, with the 39th overall pick of the NFL Draft.
In a WR class heavy on smaller receivers, Mingo is a 6-foot-1, 226-pound bully who could thrive at the next level. Mingo’s physicality after the catch reminds me of Sterling Sharpe and Anquan Boldin, who were notoriously tough to bring down.
Mingo has 4.46 speed, which, at his size, gives him a 96th-percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com. He also had the second-biggest hands (10 3/8 inches) among the receivers at the NFL Scouting Combine. Mingo only had one season of noteworthy production in college, which seems to be throwing dynasty managers off the trail. The Panthers’ top veteran receivers are Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and Terrace Marshall, so it shouldn’t be too difficult for Mingo to climb the depth chart.
Hooker is a QB tier unto himself in this year’s rookie drafts, below the Stroud, Young, Richardson and Levis, but well ahead of everybody else.
Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way. Hooker tore his ACL in late November, which means he’s going to miss his first NFL training camp. With no training camp reps to help Hooker get acclimated to the speed of the NFL game, his rookie year might end up being a redshirt season. And at 25, Hooker is an overaged prospect. He also comes from an extremely QB-friendly offense choreographed by Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel.
However, Hooker’s selling points are pretty compelling. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, he has prototypical NFL size. In his two seasons with the Vols, Hooker had a 58/5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt. He isn’t in Richardson’s class as a runner, but Hooker has good mobility and will add fantasy value with his legs.
The Lions drafted Hooker early in the third round. If the team declines to make a long-term commitment to Jared Goff after the 2023, season, Hooker could be handed the keys to a Detroit offense with an above-average offensive line and some exciting talent at the skill positions.
It’s not often we see college backups taken in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft, but that was the case with Johnson, who was the No. 2 running back at Texas behind Bijan Robinson. The Bears selected Johnson in the fourth round and might immediately throw him into an RB committee along with Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman.
The 6-foot, 219-pound Johnson is a punishing runner who consistently pushes the pile on inside runs. But Johnson isn’t just an early-down thumper. His exceptional pass-catching ability could keep him on the field for third downs in the NFL. I’ve seen/heard Chris Carson comparisons for Johnson, and those comps seem apt. Like Carson, Johnson is a downhill runner who seems to relish contact and will try to run through a tackler if a hole closes in front of him.
Hat tip to my colleague Derek Brown, whose enthusiasm for Hull has been contagious. Hull, a fifth-round pick of the Colts, profiles as a third-down back with the potential to spell Jonathan Taylor on early downs as well. Hull had a strong week at the Senior Bowl and then tested well at the combine.
Like Sam LaPorta, Hull has been one of the few rays of light in an anemic Big Ten offense. Hull accounted for 36.2% of Northwestern’s offensive yardage last season. He led all FBS running backs in receptions (55) and receiving yards (546). Hull has soft hands and a knack for maximizing his receptions, as evidenced by his 483 yards after the catch last season.
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