In order to succeed in dynasty leagues over the long haul, it is important to identify both overvalued and undervalued players in startup drafts. Startup drafts are a different beast. You draft deep rosters while trying to balance short-term success with long-term sustainability. You’ll see a number of different strategies utilized by your league mates. Some will go all-in on winning early, while others will draft almost entirely for the future. Our featured experts are here to highlight some of the top targets in this year’s dynasty startup drafts that are either overvalued or undervalued to help you split the difference.

Here are the players our featured analysts are avoiding and targeting in dynasty startup drafts this offseason.

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Overvalued and Undervalued Dynasty Startup Draft Targets

Who is one overvalued player based on consensus dynasty rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
“I have never been a fan of Deebo Samuel. The veteran wide receiver had an outstanding 2021 season, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, 28.1% of his fantasy production came on the ground that year. Furthermore, Samuel saw his fantasy production tank after the San Francisco 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey. The veteran averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game before the rival of McCaffrey but only nine fantasy points per game with the superstar running back on the roster. Brandon Aiyuk is the true No. 1 wide receiver in San Francisco, while Samuel is on my do-not-draft list, especially as the WR21 in the rankings.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
“It’s hard to justify drafting A.J. Dillon in the single-digit rounds of a dynasty startup when he contributes little as a pass catcher and doesn’t have a monopoly on early-down work for the Packers. With 16 touchdowns in 45 career games, Dillon hasn’t been able to establish himself as a goal-line specialist even though he’s 247 pounds. He’s averaged 1.8 targets a game over his three seasons, and he’s topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage only once, with 1,116 yards in 2021. Even if Dillon is eventually decoupled from teammate Aaron Jones, it’s hard to envision him as anything more than a committee back. Dillon’s ECR pegs him as a midrange RB3 in dynasty, but I rank him as a midrange RB4.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
“In dynasty, running backs are a dime a dozen, and their value can change quickly. That being said, the value of Dameon Pierce is trending in the wrong direction. The team didn’t draft a running back, but they acquired Devin Singletary prior to the draft. This is a team in turmoil and looking for direction, and I just don’t see them relying heavily on Pierce to carry them into the future. He’s going as RB17, and there are at least five running backs going behind him that I’d rather have. Draft with caution.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“It’s entirely possible that we’ve already seen the peak of Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy prowess, despite him only being 24 years old. With Anthony Richardson under center, Taylor will likely see fewer pass-catching opportunities and may have fewer goal-line opportunities too. With Taylor’s price still being the equivalent of a high first-round pick, drafters might wish to move on before Taylor’s value gets any lower.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

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Who is one undervalued player based on consensus dynasty rankings that you’ll be targeting in dynasty drafts and why?

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
“Cooper Kupp averaged 18.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year and would have been the WR1 if not for a high ankle sprain despite Matthew Stafford‘s struggles. Furthermore, the superstar has been the most consistent fantasy wide receiver over the past two years. He scored 12.7 or more fantasy points in all but one game over the past two seasons, removing the Week 10 matchup last year when he suffered the ankle injury. Meanwhile, Kupp scored 20 or more fantasy points in 14 of those 26 games. While the superstar turns 30 in June, I couldn’t care less. Kupp should be much higher than the WR15 in the rankings.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
“Jahan Dotson is a favorite target of mine in the dynasty startups I’m doing this spring. He had 35 catches for 523 yards as a rookie, but Dotson scored seven touchdowns in 12 games and had five weeks in which he was a top-20 scorer at the WR position, even though Washington had one of the worst QB situations in the league. The Commanders raised a few eyebrows by taking Dotson with the 16th overall pick of the 2021 draft, but the Penn State product has 4.43 speed, runs crisp routes, punches well above his 181-pound weight in contested-catch situations, and is slippery after the catch. Dotson’s dynasty ECR is WR30, but I’d rather have him than Jameson Williams or Jerry Jeudy, who have been going before Dotson in dynasty startups.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)
“Treylon Burks at WR24 feels like a steal to me. He’s going to command the WR1 targets on this new-look Titans offense, and I don’t care who’s throwing him the ball. Whether it’s Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, or even Malik Willis, I think Burks could sneak into that WR1 territory come November. He’s being devalued due to the unpredictability at the QB position, but once that’s settled, I expect his value to rise. Get in now before it does.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)
“The Lions surprised everyone by picking Jahmyr Gibbs with the twelfth overall pick, and that high-end draft capital likely sees Gibbs get plenty of opportunities, but Montgomery profiles better for the rushing work between the twenties and possibly at the goal line too. Gibbs is going as a top-five pick in rookie drafts and will be expensive to acquire, but Montgomery is available for a mid-second and could have a better year, particularly if the Lions use him similarly to Jamaal Williams, who scored 17 touchdowns and rushed for over 1000 yards in 2022.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

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