Dan Tursky | Sun, May 14th 2023, 7:18am EDT

Over & Undervalued Rookies Based on ADP (2023 Fantasy Football)

It brings me great joy to produce NFL content for the 2023 season. With the calendar now turned over to May and the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy draft season is rapidly approaching (and for some, is already underway). For now, we take our first look at the rookie class, where their ADPs currently sit and analyze which young players are over or undervalued based on their position.

There were 10 offensive players taken in the first round of this year’s draft – all 10 of which have a great opportunity to contribute to their respective teams out of the gate. This includes three quarterbacks selected in the top four picks, two top-12 running backs, and a flurry of four straight receivers selected between picks 20 and 23. To top it all off, 2023 represented the deepest tight end rookie class we have seen in nearly a decade, marking five total players drafted at the position by pick No. 58 in the second round.

Every new season represents excitement around new offensive possibilities in the fantasy landscape. In this article, we’ll look at a few of these skills position players and help articulate whether or not they will be able to develop into studs and smash their ADP or if they will fall short of expectations. As both a season-long drafter and NFL Best Ball connoisseur, I’ll touch on both aspects for the upcoming list.

Dynasty Trade Value Chart
Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

Over/Undervalued Rookies Based on ADP (2023 Fantasy Football)

(ADPs courtesy of ESPN’s PPR rankings & Underdog Fantasy’s ADP)

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

ESPN ADP: 6.0 overall (RB3) | UD ADP: 7.1 overall (RB2)

Bijan Robinson is the most intriguing rookie for fantasy purposes coming out of the 2023 Draft, and it is not particularly close. He is one of the highest-ranked rookie running backs in recent memory and for good reason. Robinson was selected by the Falcons with the No. 8 overall pick, and he will be sliding right into an undeniable fit of an offense.

Here are some Falcons team stats that should have fantasy drafters salivating over the prospects of a generational talent like Robinson this season:

Third in rushing (2718 yards, 169.8 YPG)
10th in rushing TDs (17)
10th in offensive line rank (according to PFF)

They also spent their second-round pick (No. 38 overall) on upgrading their guard position by selecting second-team All-ACC Matthew Bergeron out of Syracuse. With a coach of Arthur Smith’s pedigree, in which the rushing attack takes a clear precedent, it is quite obvious that the Falcons will be all-in on their run game in 2023.

Robinson is unparalleled when it comes to college production and future upside. A top-10 Heisman Trophy candidate last season, the rookie posted an astronomical 258-1580-18 rushing and 19-314-2 receiving line at Texas in 2022. He possesses a true three-down skillset and will rarely come off of the field come September. There is a strong argument to be made that he will finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy running back in 2023 and that his ADP should be bumped to the RB1 spot. He is 100% valid as a first-round draft pick this Summer.

Consensus: Undervalued

Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)

ESPN ADP: 124 overall (WR51) | UD ADP: 86.6 overall (WR43)

Selected at pick No. 21 overall by the Chargers, Quentin Johnston ended up being the second wide receiver drafted behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in April. He figures to slot in as a complementary field stretcher and boundary receiver alongside Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the Los Angeles passing attack. However, there were some concerns surrounding Johnston coming out of the draft.

The rookie had eight dropped passes in 2022 and posted just a 34.8% contested catch rate, which is far too low for a player of his stature. His route running has also been regarded as below-average, though his 6-foot-3 frame should be capable of making up for any lack of finesse.

The Chargers used 11 personnel in the top half of NFL teams last season, which should continue in 2023. My main concern is whether Johnson will regularly see the field as the third wide receiver or if he will have to rotate in only when Williams or Allen needs a blow. It is very unlikely the rookie will be thrown in the slot at any point. Johnston has the early look of a fade in a system that, while theoretically should be able to produce three-four fantasy stalwarts each season, has stunningly been unable to do so.

Consensus: Overvalued

Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR)

ESPN ADP: 167 (WR62) | UD ADP: 131.2 overall (WR58)

You can consider me a full-time buyer on Jonathan Mingo, and I will shamelessly tout him all offseason. Early ESPN rankings have him going essentially undrafted after some D/STs and kickers. This is simply egregious. Mingo was drafted by Carolina in the second round at pick No. 39 overall. The draft capital alone should be enough information to know that Carolina has Mingo well within their immediate plans.

Mingo was a late riser in talent evaluator circles leading up to this year’s Draft, and he has recently been compared to names such as A.J. Brown and Anquan Boldin – pretty strong company if you ask me. Profiling at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, Mingo exits a four-year collegiate career at Ole Miss with a 112-1758-5 receiving line across 34 total games.

He is now joining a revamped Carolina team that has been completely overhauled with a new head coach in Frank Reich and quarterback in Bryce Young. Mingo has a surefire shot of being the Panthers’ new WR1 out of the gate, as he is set to compete with 32-year-old Adam Thielen and injury-prone DJ Chark for top duties. Young and Mingo should build chemistry this Summer, and it would not be surprising to start hearing about the two young studs clicking sooner than later. Now is the time to pluck Mingo up in best ball before his ADP shoots upwards.