NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (5/11)

We saw these four teams play on Tuesday, and it was one of the worst nights of the playoffs we’ve seen. Both matchups were blowouts, but they didn’t go quite as expected. Denver took take of business at home, but Philly pulled out a shocking road win against Boston. That has the Sixers and Nuggets up 3-2, and both clubs will try to close things out here. We don’t anticipate seeing any blowouts tonight, and it should lead to a fun night of basketball!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

BOS at PHI (BOS -2) O/U: 214.5

DEN at PHX (PHX -3.5) O/U: 226

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Chris Paul (groin) OUT
• Deandre Ayton (ribs) Questionable

Core Plays

Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $9,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
I picked the Sixers to win the title at the beginning of the playoffs, but I thought they had no chance in Game 5. The MVP has other ideas, finishing that gem with 33 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and four blocks. That’s allowed Embiid to score at least 53 DraftKings points in three straight games, which is on par with his absurd season average. As long as Embiid gets the 40 minutes and 25 shots we’re anticipating, the MVP should be in line for another monster night.

Devin Booker (PG/SG – PHX): $10,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Booker finally showed us that he’s human in Game 5! The sharpshooter was shooting at an 80 percent clip in the two games prior, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in all 10 playoff games. He’s also got a 58-point average this postseason, scoring 64 and 77 DK points in Games 3 and 4. The simple fact is, DB has to do everything with Chris Paul sidelined, guaranteeing Book 40 minutes, 25-30 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate. All of those could be his floor in this elimination game.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,500 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The Joker was the highest-scoring player in fantasy before a lackluster final month, averaging 62 DraftKings points per game. That’s the stud we’ve seen in this series, scoring at least 73 fantasy points in six of his last seven outings. That’s right on par with his average against the Suns this season, averaging 33.9 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 10.6 assists in their seven matchups this year. This two-time MVP is trying to take the next step in his career, and you know he will be full tilt to grab that first title.

Kevin Durant (SF/PF – PHX): $9,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
With CP3 sidelined, Durant and Booker have to carry this Suns offense. That’s what they’ve been doing, with Durant scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in 11 straight games. He’s also seeing some crazy usage in this series, averaging 25 shots and 43 minutes a night over his last four fixtures. With the Suns staring down elimination, KD might play a full 48 minutes and could take 30-plus shots. In 14 career elimination games, Durant is averaging 30.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.4 steals across 42 minutes a night.

GPP Targets

Aaron Gordon (PF – DEN): $5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Gordon had a career year in Denver, but this salary doesn’t represent that. The versatile forward averaged 31 DK points per game during the year, which is right on par with what he did in Game 5. The Nuggets need him out there for 40 minutes to guard KD, and as long as AG has that sort of role, he should never be sitting around $6,000 on both sites. He’s also slaughtered the Suns all year, averaging 34 DK points per game in their eight matchups.

Deandre Ayton (C – PHX): $5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
There’s been a ton of negativity towards Ayton in this series, but his salary is getting too cheap. The big man is still providing solid value for a $6K player, dropping 32 DK points across 32 minutes in Game 5. This team needs him to do that more often, posting a 35-point average during the regular season. All you need is 30 fantasy points for DA to be a decent value, and he should play 35-40 minutes in this must-win game. He’s also got a matchup with Nikola Jokic, who’s one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA.

Value Plays

Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Toby is just a role player with Embiid and James Harden swallowing up all of the usage in Philly, but he’s one of the best role players in the league. The efficiency stud averaged nearly 30 DK points per game in the regular season and is coming off a 33-point gem in his most recent outing. If he duplicates that, Toby is one of the best values on the slate. The role should allow him to do just that because Philly needs him out there for 40 minutes to close out this series.

Marcus Smart (PG/SG – BOS): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Smart has been in this article throughout the postseason, and he’s provided value on nearly every slate. The former Defensive Player of the Year is seeing a boost in playing time during these playoffs, averaging 32 DK points per game in their 11 postseason outings. That’s a fantastic total from such an affordable player, but Smart has been even better throughout his postseason career. In his last eight elimination games, Smart is averaging 38 DraftKings points across 39 minutes a night.

Advantageous Pricing

Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $9,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

Kevin Durant (SF/PF – PHX): $9,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $9,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel

Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI): $6,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Al Horford (PF/C – BOS): $5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

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