Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Most Overrated Player on Each NFL Team
AFC East
Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid is a terrific TE prospect, but his early ADP seems unwisely aggressive, given the historical performance of rookie tight ends. The first-round draft pick from Utah has an overall ADP of TE11, and an Underdog best-ball ADP of TE12. Kincaid’s rookie snap and target shares might not be substantial enough for him to finish as a low-end TE1. – Fitzmaurice
Miami Dolphins – Devon Achane
I could easily harp on Achane’s size and lingering concerns for overall volume and red zone role, but I won’t go that route. I’ll simply mention that in his final season in college, Achane slipped outside the top 30 running backs in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, PFF elusive rating, and yards per route run (minimum 100 carries or 20 targets per PFF). Even if those numbers don’t concern you (they should), the looming specter of a possible Dalvin Cook trade or signing should be pushing his ADP down the board. If Cook lands in South Beach, Achane is toast. – DBro
New England Patriots – JuJu Smith-Schuster
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been consistently overrated since his third season, despite his initial hype and a WR9 overall finish in 2019. Unfortunately, he has failed to live up to expectations as a true No. 1 wide receiver, and even as the top projected pass-catcher for the New England Patriots, that trend is unlikely to change. Last season, despite playing alongside Patrick Mahomes, Smith-Schuster only commanded an 18% target share, placing him as the WR28 overall and WR42 in points per game (with a meager 9.1 in half-PPR). Realistically, the best-case scenario for Smith-Schuster is offering a weekly WR3/4 floor, similar to what Jakobi Meyers achieved in 2022. Considering his years removed from top-tier fantasy production, it’s safe to say that Smith-Schuster’s fantasy ceiling is almost non-existent. – Erickson
New York Jets – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is far from washed as a real-life NFL quarterback, but his days of delivering for fantasy on his own are long gone. In 2022, Rodgers took a massive step backward, finishing the year as QB27 in points per game (15.0) as the QB13 overall. He had one top-10 fantasy finish while posting nine finishes between QB13 and QB15. Losing Davante Adams killed Rodgers’ 2022 upside. He produced his lowest TD total since 2019 – the last time he was forced to play games without Adams. – Fitzmaurice
Having second-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson and veteran Allen Lazard will help Rodgers in New York, but it’s hard to envision him cracking the fantasy QB1 conversation with his rushing numbers all but nonexistent at this point. His QB15 ADP seems a tad bit pricy with that potentially his fantasy ceiling. – Erickson
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell Beckham Jr. is currently being drafted as a top-50 fantasy wide receiver, despite missing the entire 2022 season due to a torn ACL. While Beckham may be deemed healthy, expecting him to make a significant impact in a completely new Ravens offense alongside Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews, is an enormous leap of faith. It’s worth noting that his yards per route run has been on a downward trend over his past three healthy seasons. In 2021, Beckham managed just 1.68 yards per route run with the Rams, ranking him 42nd among all wide receivers. Furthermore, it’s important to consider that Beckham will be turning 31 years old in November, raising questions about his durability and ability to regain his previous form. – Erickson
Cincinnati Bengals – Tee Higgins
The Bengals have a shortage of candidates for the overrated category now that drafters seem to be (wisely) fading Joe Mixon. Higgins is typically drafted as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2, which seems slightly aspirational considering that the presence of Ja’Marr Chase caps Higgins’ ceiling. Higgins’ fantasy finishes in the two seasons since Chase joined the Bengals: WR22 (14 games) and WR17. Higgins is a terrific player, but it’s hard to see him turning a profit for investors at his current cost. – Fitzmaurice
Cleveland Browns – Deshaun Watson
The thought of drafting Deshaun Watson in 2023 frightens me for fantasy football. Last year he played terribly. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when he was on the field. His big-time throw rate was the fourth-lowest in the NFL, behind only Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones (per PFF). Watson also racked up the tenth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (per PFF). The quarterback pool is too deep, with rushing options aplenty, to consider taking the plunge with Watson this year. – DBro
Pittsburgh Steelers – George Pickens
Despite his potential, there are reasons to view Steelers wide receiver George Pickens as an overrated fantasy football player. While Pickens is highly valued, it’s worth noting that his teammate Diontae Johnson had a superior target share in 2022, receiving 27% of the targets compared to Pickens’ 16%. Additionally, Pickens’ role on the team cannot be expected to increase significantly, as he already ran a route on 91% of dropbacks last season. In terms of target rate per route run, Pickens ranked last among wide receivers who ran a route on 80% or more of dropbacks, tying with Parris Campbell and Tyler Boyd at 14%. While Pickens may receive hype due to his age and highlight-reel catches, such as leading in FiveThirtyEight’s catch rate metric, it’s important to remember that consistently ranking in the top three for receptions on 20-plus air yard targets is no easy feat. – Erickson
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC South
Houston Texans – Dameon Pierce
Banking on a running back delivering solely on volume is a bet that I try to avoid making. Because it’s the one component to a fantasy RB’s game that can disappear quickly. And that’s why I can’t back Dameon Pierce as a top-20 running back. His production was 100% tied to the carry volume he got last season, and he broke down as the season progressed. The team also added Devin Singletary in the offseason who is an immediate upgrade over Pierce’s 2022 competition. And Pierce’s role as a receiver is still very much up in the air, which is problematic for a team that projects to be trailing in games in 2023. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans. – Erickson
Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson
FantasyPros has tracked Richardson’s ADP at QB15, and his ADP on Underdog is all the way up to QB15. With his rare physical traits and a better handle on the subtleties of playing quarterback than he’s given credit for, Richardson has a chance to become a star. But it seems unlikely that he’s going to have a good season as a passer in Year 1, which means his running ability might have to float his rookie-year fantasy value. Richardson is 6-4, 244 pounds with 4.43 speed, so a 1,000-yard rushing season with double-digit TD runs isn’t out of the question, but his ADP is blowing up so quickly that he’ll almost need to post extraordinary rushing numbers just to pay off. – Fitzmaurice
Jacksonville Jaguars – Travis Etienne
Drafting Travis Etienne (ECR RB12) as a top-15 back, much less an RB1, is lunacy. We can’t ignore the team drafting Tank Bigsby in the third round, especially with how badly Etienne struggled in the red zone last season. In 2022, among 65 qualifying running backs ranked 57th in red zone touchdown conversion rate. If you believe his pass game role this year can offset Bigsby’s incoming touchdown vulturing, his 7.8% target share (31st) last season should be an extra large sippy cup of cold water. Etienne is a low-end RB2 at best. – DBro
Tennessee Titans – Chig Okonkwo
The hype and hope for a Chigoziem Oknokwo breakout has reached questionable proportions (ECR: TE12). Okonkwo’s talent is tantalizing, but I remember this song and dance from last season. At this time last year, my Albert Okwuegbunam love letter was passionate and well-rehearsed. Small sample efficiency is alluring, but we must temper our expectations with a run-heavy offense that could have a rookie starting quarterback by midseason. Drafting Okonkwo over players like Cole Kmet or Gerald Everett or a similar upside bet with Greg Dulcich feels a little punch drunk. – DBro
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC West
Denver Broncos – Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams was used as a committee back in college with Michael Carter and as a committee back in Year 1 with Melvin Gordon. In 2023, he will be used in a committee backfield with Samaje Perine under a new coaching staff coming off a major knee injury. Williams’ tackle-breaking ability is enticing — PFF elusive rating of 116.3 was the highest among all running backs with a minimum of 45 carries in 2022 — but his inability to completely own the backfield is too often overlooked. – Erickson
Kansas City Chiefs – Kadarius Toney
In the AFC Championship Game, Kadarius Toney ran three routes. In the Super Bowl, after two weeks of game planning, Toney ran five routes. I understand the bullish case for Toney based on his 4th-ranked target rate per route run (29%) over the last two seasons. And he plays in the Chiefs offense. But he has displayed zero ability to maintain a full-time role in the NFL with one game played with at least a 75% snap share. Toney has also missed so much time with injuries, which also relates to his lack of availability. Why draft Toney as fantasy WR3 with his fourth-ranked target rate when you can draft Deonte Harty (potential limited role in high-powered Bills offense) and his top-10 target rate for FREE. – Erickson
Las Vegas Raiders – Davante Adams
Adams is one of the best pass catchers in the league, but I’m expecting a decline in production now that he’ll no longer be paired with either Aaron Rodgers or his former college teammate, Derek Carr. The Raiders’ new quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, isn’t known for being an aggressive downfield thrower. He averaged 6.9 air yards on his pass attempts last season. Carr averaged 9.1 air yards last year. Adams is reportedly frustrated with the direction of the Raiders offense. This seems like a recipe for disappointment. Adams is typically being drafted at the first-round/second-round turn, and I have serious doubts that he’ll be able to justify that sort of investment. – Fitzmaurice
Las Angeles Chargers – Mike Williams
Every year it seems like the same story with Mike Williams. Flashes of touchdowns and big-plays that are diminished by overall inconsistency. He finished last season as the WR20 in points per game, but missed four games. He also so his TD totals dip by over 50% going from 9 in 2021 to 4 in 2022. At this point, it seems Williams will never fully put together a truly epic WR1 season that he has teased every year since 2018. I am still feverishly waiting for him to go over 1,000 yards with double-digit TDs. Don’t hold your breath. – Erickson
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
