Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
Most Overrated Player on Each AFC North Team
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell Beckham Jr. is currently being drafted as a top-50 fantasy wide receiver, despite missing the entire 2022 season due to a torn ACL. While Beckham may be deemed healthy, expecting him to make a significant impact in a completely new Ravens offense alongside Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews, is an enormous leap of faith. It’s worth noting that his yards per route run has been on a downward trend over his past three healthy seasons. In 2021, Beckham managed just 1.68 yards per route run with the Rams, ranking him 42nd among all wide receivers. Furthermore, it’s important to consider that Beckham will be turning 31 years old in November, raising questions about his durability and ability to regain his previous form. – Erickson
Cincinnati Bengals – Tee Higgins
The Bengals have a shortage of candidates for the overrated category now that drafters seem to be (wisely) fading Joe Mixon. Higgins is typically drafted as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2, which seems slightly aspirational considering that the presence of Ja’Marr Chase caps Higgins’ ceiling. Higgins’ fantasy finishes in the two seasons since Chase joined the Bengals: WR22 (14 games) and WR17. Higgins is a terrific player, but it’s hard to see him turning a profit for investors at his current cost. – Fitzmaurice
Cleveland Browns – Deshaun Watson
The thought of drafting Deshaun Watson in 2023 frightens me for fantasy football. Last year he played terribly. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when he was on the field. His big-time throw rate was the fourth-lowest in the NFL, behind only Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones (per PFF). Watson also racked up the tenth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (per PFF). The quarterback pool is too deep, with rushing options aplenty, to consider taking the plunge with Watson this year. – DBro
Pittsburgh Steelers – George Pickens
Despite his potential, there are reasons to view Steelers wide receiver George Pickens as an overrated fantasy football player. While Pickens is highly valued, it’s worth noting that his teammate Diontae Johnson had a superior target share in 2022, receiving 27% of the targets compared to Pickens’ 16%. Additionally, Pickens’ role on the team cannot be expected to increase significantly, as he already ran a route on 91% of dropbacks last season. In terms of target rate per route run, Pickens ranked last among wide receivers who ran a route on 80% or more of dropbacks, tying with Parris Campbell and Tyler Boyd at 14%. While Pickens may receive hype due to his age and highlight-reel catches, such as leading in FiveThirtyEight’s catch rate metric, it’s important to remember that consistently ranking in the top three for receptions on 20-plus air yard targets is no easy feat. – Erickson
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