Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

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Most Overrated Player on Each AFC East Team

AFC East

Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid is a terrific TE prospect, but his early ADP seems unwisely aggressive, given the historical performance of rookie tight ends. The first-round draft pick from Utah has an overall ADP of TE11, and an Underdog best-ball ADP of TE12. Kincaid’s rookie snap and target shares might not be substantial enough for him to finish as a low-end TE1. – Fitzmaurice

Miami Dolphins – Devon Achane
I could easily harp on Achane’s size and lingering concerns for overall volume and red zone role, but I won’t go that route. I’ll simply mention that in his final season in college, Achane slipped outside the top 30 running backs in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, PFF elusive rating, and yards per route run (minimum 100 carries or 20 targets per PFF). Even if those numbers don’t concern you (they should), the looming specter of a possible Dalvin Cook trade or signing should be pushing his ADP down the board. If Cook lands in South Beach, Achane is toast. – DBro

New England Patriots – JuJu Smith-Schuster
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been consistently overrated since his third season, despite his initial hype and a WR9 overall finish in 2019. Unfortunately, he has failed to live up to expectations as a true No. 1 wide receiver, and even as the top projected pass-catcher for the New England Patriots, that trend is unlikely to change. Last season, despite playing alongside Patrick Mahomes, Smith-Schuster only commanded an 18% target share, placing him as the WR28 overall and WR42 in points per game (with a meager 9.1 in half-PPR). Realistically, the best-case scenario for Smith-Schuster is offering a weekly WR3/4 floor, similar to what Jakobi Meyers achieved in 2022. Considering his years removed from top-tier fantasy production, it’s safe to say that Smith-Schuster’s fantasy ceiling is almost non-existent. – Erickson

New York Jets – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is far from washed as a real-life NFL quarterback, but his days of delivering for fantasy on his own are long gone. In 2022, Rodgers took a massive step backward, finishing the year as QB27 in points per game (15.0) as the QB13 overall. He had one top-10 fantasy finish while posting nine finishes between QB13 and QB15. Losing Davante Adams killed Rodgers’ 2022 upside. He produced his lowest TD total since 2019 – the last time he was forced to play games without Adams. – Fitzmaurice

Having second-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson and veteran Allen Lazard will help Rodgers in New York, but it’s hard to envision him cracking the fantasy QB1 conversation with his rushing numbers all but nonexistent at this point. His QB15 ADP seems a tad bit pricy with that potentially his fantasy ceiling. – Erickson

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