The midweek MLB DFS slate is small, featuring only six games at DraftKings and seven at FanDuel. It begins at 6:40 pm ET on FD and 7:07 pm ET on DK. The picks in today’s primer are narrowed to three pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher is living up to his prospect billing. However, he carries some risk, like all the pitchers on this slate. The matchup is a mixed bag for him. The matchup is less concerning for the second pitcher on the table, but his home ballpark is treacherous for pitchers. Nevertheless, he's the best SP2 in cash games at DK and a decent choice in GPPs at FD. Finally, the third listed pitcher is a dart throw based on his recent performance in the minors.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. MIN
Brown is cooking with gasoline this year after getting a cup of coffee in the majors last year. According to FanGraphs, in 10 starts spanning 57.2 innings this season, he has a 3.12 ERA, 3.80 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 28.1 K% and 29.5 CSW%.
The 24-year-old righty's pitch modeling is excellent, too. Among qualified pitchers, Brown is tied for 20th in Stuff+ (105). He also boasts a 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
The young righty's matchup isn't perfect. For example, the Twins are tied for eighth in wRC+ (106) against righties this year. However, Minnesota has also struck out in 26.2% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in 2023. Furthermore, the Twins have face-planted on the road this season, tying for 22nd in wRC+ (88) and punching out at a 26.6% clip.
The betting info indicates the oddsmakers and bettors expect Minnesota's offense to struggle. Per Betting Pros, the Astros are -170, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. So, there's a ton to love about Brown, making him the top pitcher tonight.
James Paxton (BOS) vs. CIN
Paxton had two good starts for the Red Sox before pitching a dud his last time toeing the slab. Fortunately, the lefty's velocity is still high. Paxton's 95.5 mph average fastball velocity in his third start of the year was down a pinch from his first two starts in 2023. Nevertheless, it was in the same range as his velocity from 2017-2019 before his pitching took a nosedive while missing significant time with injuries.
Paxton has struck out 19 batters in 14.0 innings for the Red Sox and posted a 28.7 CSW%. His ability to strike batters out is fantasy-friendly. Paxton's matchup and betting info is decent, too. The Reds are 18th in wRC+ (101) against lefties. And the Red Sox are -195. Unfortunately, the game's total of 10.0 runs is alarming. As a result, Paxton is a risky pick. Still, tonight's slate lacks low-risk pitchers.
GPP Recommendation:
Dinelson Lamet (COL) at ARI
Lamet was crushed in Colorado's bullpen to begin the year. In addition, he's generally struggled since his breakout 2020 campaign. However, a transition back to starting might be what he needs if his stats in Triple-A are any indication.
In three starts totaling 10.2 innings in Triple-A this season, he has a 0.84 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.66 WHIP, 2.8 BB%, 30.6 K% and 18.0 SwStr%. The 30-year-old righty was stretched out to 63 pitches in his last start, throwing 42 strikes en route to 4.2 scoreless innings. So, Lamet will likely face a pitch restriction tonight, rendering him a non-option on FD. Yet, Lamet can clear the low bar needed to be a DFS value at DK if his success in Triple-A follows him to the majors tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Blue Jays have what should be a cupcake matchup tonight, despite Julio Teheran holding the Giants to just one run in 5.0 innings in his debut for the Brewers. The 32-year-old righty had a 5.63 ERA, 5.42 xFIP and 1.68 WHIP in eight starts in Triple-A this year. Of course, a one-start sample isn't a reason to toss out Teheran's struggle in Triple-A this year. So, the Blue Jays are the co-best stack on tonight's slate.
- Home (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.0 Runs/BOS -195
The Red Sox are the other co-best stack tonight. Luke Weaver has been crushed for a 5.45 ERA, 4.31 xERA, 4.36 xFIP and 2.13 HR/9 in seven starts this year for the Reds. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have an above-average offense against righties and rake at home. Boston is tied for 11th in wRC+ (103) against righties and tied for third in wRC+ (123) at home in 2023. Thus, they're built to add to Weaver's woes.
- Jarred Kelenic is breaking out and has a dreamy matchup tonight. The 23-year-old outfielder has 10 homers, seven stolen bases, a .340 OBP, .241 ISO and 139 wRC+ in 209 plate appearances this season. And righty Clarke Schmidt has allowed a .425 OBP, .616 SLG and .441 wOBA to 113 left-handed batters in 2023.
- In 728 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, Bo Bichette has had a .335 OBP, .171 ISO and 118 wRC+.
- Jarren Duran is clobbering righties this year. In 106 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, he has three homers, a .352 OBP, .206 ISO and 133 wRC+. Duran is also a threat to steal a base, swiping seven in seven attempts this year.
- Justin Turner hits in the middle of Boston's lineup and faces a righty who's been torched by right-handed batters this season. Weaver has yielded a .363 OBP, .628 SLG and .419 wOBA to 91 right-handed batters in 2023.
- In 309 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, Alejandro Kirk has had a .359 OBP, .185 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- Triston Casas is a slightly above-average hitter at home against righties, tallying a 104 wRC+ in 100 plate appearances under those conditions in his career.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Blue Jays and Red Sox should light up the scoreboard tonight. As a result, they're the best sources of hitters on tonight's MLB DFS main slate. Gamers also shouldn't sleep on players near the bottom of the order when stacking Toronto and Boston.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
