Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is medium-sized, featuring eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. It begins at the customary time, 7:05 pm ET. Today’s DFS primer has three pitchers, two stacks, two core studs and four values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is medium-sized, featuring eight games at DraftKings and FanDuel. It begins at the customary time, 7:05 pm ET. Today’s DFS primer has three pitchers, two stacks, two core studs and four values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A rookie who's hit the ground running and has a soft matchup is atop tonight's pitching options. He's followed by a veteran lefty who thrives at home. The third listed pitcher on the table is making an eye-catching return from multiple injury-marred seasons.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. OAK
Miller has made the transition from the minors to the majors with aplomb. According to FanGraphs, in four starts spanning 25.1 innings, he's had a 1.42 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 3.72 SIERA, 0.51 WHIP, 2.3 BB% and 25.0 K%. The rookie has pitched at least 6.0 innings in all of his starts.
In addition, his pitch modeling is excellent. Among starters with at least 20 innings this year, Miller's 122 Stuff+ is tied for the seventh-highest mark. He also has a 105 Location+ and 112 Pitching+.
The context is ideal for another superb start tonight. First, the Athletics are 22nd in wRC+ (86) and have a 26.3 K% against righties this year. They're also tied for 22nd in wRC+ (84) over the previous 14 days and have had a 26.6 K%.
Second, per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -275, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. So, Miller is the top pitcher in all game types at both DFS outlets tonight.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. BAL
The Orioles are an admittedly challenging matchup for Cortes. He's also tallied an ugly 5.21 ERA and 5.00 xFIP this season in nine starts. However, the lefty's 3.79 xERA is reasonable.
Cortes has also excelled at home. In 161.1 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 2.57 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 6.4 BB% and 26.4 K%. The betting info is also rock-solid. The Bronx Bombers are -150, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, Cortes is the best SP2 at DK in all game types and is appealing in tournaments at FD.
GPP Recommendation:
James Paxton (BOS) at LAA
Paxton was last fantasy relevant in 2019 before suffering injuries. However, he's had a remarkable bounce-back so far this year. In two starts spanning 11.0 innings, Paxton has a 2.45 ERA, 4.60 xERA, 3.38 SIERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.8 BB%, 31.8 K% and 30.3 CSW%.
The veteran lefty pumping heat at a level unseen since 2016 has been a welcome development for Paxton. Per FanGraphs, he's averaging 96.4 mph with his four-seam fastball and 95.5 mph with his sinker, his highest averages since 2016 (97.6 mph) and 2017 (95.5 mph), respectively.
Sadly, Paxton has a tricky matchup tonight. The Angels are 12th in wRC+ (109) against lefties this season. However, they've stumbled lately. In the past 14 days, the Angels are 19th in wRC+ (90) and have had a staggering 27.3 K%. So, there's an upside to using Paxton tonight. Yet, there is a risk for using him, too. Thus, Paxton is perfect for tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SEA -275
The Mariners have a tasty matchup tonight. Among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, Ken Waldichuk has the fourth-highest ERA (6.85), eighth-highest xERA (6.26), fourth-highest xFIP (5.80) and second-highest homers per nine innings (2.54 HR/9). Predictably, all hitters have crushed him. Fellow lefties have a .424 OBP, .704 SLG and .467 wOBA against Waldichuk this year. And righties have a .398 OBP, .579 SLG and .415 wOBA.
Somehow, it gets better. Oakland's bullpen is more likely to pour fuel on a fire than put one out. The Athletics' relievers have the highest ERA this year. As a result, Seattle's in an eruption spot at home tonight.
- Home (Wrigley Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 6.5 Runs/CHC -115
The Cubs are a contrarian stack tonight. The game's total is low, which should immediately deter many gamers and those using lineup optimizers exclusively from stacking Chicago. However, Kodai Senga isn't infallible. The 30-year-old righty's 3.77 ERA aligns with his 3.98 xERA and 3.84 xFIP. However, his dreadful control could bite him in the butt during any given start. He's walked an eye-popping 13.9% of batters he's faced this year.
Meanwhile, six of the Cubs' projected starters have an above-average wRC+ against righties this year, and five have at least a 113 wRC+. They also have patient hitters who can exploit Senga's lousy control. Therefore, the Cubs can exceed expectations and reward gamers who take a chance on them tonight.
- Juan Soto had three hits, one homer and a walk last night, bringing his total this year to nine homers, a .408 OBP, .237 ISO and 150 wRC+. The sweet-swinging lefty has a .442 OBP, .266 ISO and 173 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year.
- Since reaching the majors last year, Julio Rodriguez has had a .333 OBP, .199 ISO and 129 wRC+ against southpaws. He also hits in the heart of Seattle's order, putting him in a prime position to take advantage of tonight's cushy matchup.
- Sadly, Teoscar Hernandez isn't having a banner year. Nevertheless, he has a .295 ISO against lefties in 45 plate appearances against lefties in 2023. The slugger also has a track record of crushing lefties, owning a .351 OBP, .356 ISO and 176 wRC+ against them since 2021.
- Jose Caballero has hit the ground running against lefties in his rookie season. He has a .441 OBP, 185 ISO and 169 wRC+ against lefties in 34 plate appearances.
- Justin Turner is a bargain from the second spot in Boston's lineup. In 389 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .344 OBP, .186 ISO and 120 wRC+.
- Enrique Hernandez has also had above-average marks against lefties since 2021, recording a .350 OBP, .207 ISO and 117 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Mariners are my favorite source of hitters tonight, offering gamers a mix of high-end hitters and values. And the Red Sox have a pair of value options who are a good lineup fit in all game types. Gamers entering multiple GPP lineups should consider the Cubs. And Soto is the most exciting stud hitter on the slate.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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