It’s a medium-sized MLB DFS slate tonight after last night’s monstrous slate. There are eight games on tonight’s slate, and the action begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Games at many hitter-friendly venues give gamers alternatives to chasing the offense at Coors Field. And the pitchers are intriguing at a wide variety of salary points.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There aren't as many aces on tonight's slate. Yet, one of them is the headliner on Wednesday night. Another rock-solid hurler in a great matchup is the second-ranked pitcher. And the third-ranked hurler is a bargain pick with some risk.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) at STL
Ohtani is among MLB's best pitchers. According to FanGraphs, he has the sixth-lowest ERA (1.85) among qualified pitchers this season. Ohtani also has a 2.82 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 13.0 BB%, 35.1 K% and 31.9 CSW%. Sure, Ohtani could clean up his walks. But regardless, he's overwhelming hitters with his electrifying arsenal.
Calling Ohtani's arsenal electrifying doesn't do it full justice, either. Per FanGraphs, he has the second-highest Stuff+ (131) grade among qualified pitchers. Sadly, the Cardinals aren't a pushover. Ohtani can dominate them, though. And the betting info is outstanding. According to Betting Pros, the Angels are -142, and the game's total is just 7.5 runs. Thus, Ohtani is the top pitcher across game types tonight.
Louie Varland (MIN) at CWS
Varland gets the ball for the second time this year for the Twins. He had a quality start in New York against the Yankees on April 14, allowing three runs (all on homers) on six hits, one walk and eight strikeouts in 6.0 innings. It was a rock-solid follow-up to spinning a 3.81 ERA, 4.56 xERA and 4.13 xFIP in five starts totaling 26.0 innings last season.
However, the box-score numbers aren't as eye-catching as his pitch data. After averaging 93.9 mph with his fastball, 89.1 mph for his cutter, 83.3 mph for his slider and 83.8 mph for his changeup in 2022, his velocity is up across the board to 96.1 mph, 91.6 mph, 85.6 mph and 85.1 mph, respectively. Varland had a 14.5 SwStr% and 31.3 CSW% in his first start this year with his higher-octane arsenal.
Varland can also benefit from a good matchup tonight. The White Sox are 23rd in wRC+ (85) against right-handed pitchers this year. The only reason Varland is listed as a high-risk pitcher on the table is his lack of a sample pumping out more explosive pitches. If his velocity slips back to last year's marks, he's a more hittable pitcher. Still, the Twins are slight underdogs (-104), and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Thus, the betting info is adequate.
GPP Recommendation:
Logan Gilbert (SEA) at OAK
Gilbert hasn't been flawless lately. He coughed up eight runs in 11.0 innings in his previous two turns. Nevertheless, Gilbert also struck out 14 batters. In addition, his ERA estimators are markedly better than his 4.23 ERA in five starts spanning 27.2 innings this year. Gilbert has a 2.82 xERA and 2.97 xFIP.
The righty's combination of a 4.4 BB% and 30.1 K% is tantalizing, and his 1.12 WHIP is rock-solid. The matchup and betting info is excellent, too. The A's are 21st in wRC+ (91) and have a 25.4 K% against right-handed pitchers this year. Finally, the Mariners are -175, and the game's total is just 7.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Toronto's offense is loving their series at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. They're unlikely to slow down tonight against Nick Pivetta. Boston's veteran righty has a 5.11 ERA, 5.88 xERA and 4.64 xFIP, coughing up 1.82 HR/9 in five starts, totaling just 24.2 innings this season. He's also struggled at home since joining the Red Sox in 2021, owning a 5.23 ERA, 4.42 xFIP and 1.48 while allowing 1.83 HR/9 in 177.1 innings. So, this is an eruption spot for the Blue Jays.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/BAL -150
It looks like the clock has struck midnight on Zack Greinke. In six starts spanning 31.0 innings this year, he has a 6.10 ERA, 6.00 xERA and 4.69 SIERA. Greinke's also coughed up a staggering 2.03 HR/9. Furthermore, he's getting crushed by lefties and righties. The Orioles can hammer him. Thankfully, they can keep smashing when Greinke hands the ball off to the bullpen. Kansas City's relievers have a bottom-five ERA this season. Thus, the O's are a good bet for another offensive explosion tonight after scoring double-digit runs last night.
- C.J. Cron is a borderline unstoppable force at home against lefties. In 198 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field since 2021, Cron's had a .384 OBP, .366 ISO, .435 wOBA and 150 wRC+.
- Bo Bichette has had a .336 OBP, .178 ISO and 124 wRC+ against righties since 2021. Those are solid marks. However, the park factors at Fenway Park, the matchup against Pivetta and Bichette's lineup spot enhance the appeal of spending significant cap space to use him tonight.
- Teoscar Hernandez terrorizes left-handed pitchers. In 260 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .369 OBP, .387 ISO and 194 wRC+.
- Alejandro Kirk has a .413 OBP and 131 wRC+ this year. He's also good in same-handed matchups.
- Mike Brosseau is a platoon player and at risk of getting pulled early. However, he receives a park-factor boost at Coors Field and has often hit leadoff or cleanup against lefties.
- George Springer is a bargain on FD at his sub-$3,000 salary. First, he hits atop Toronto's lineup. Second, his Statcast expected stats are better than his ugly 2023 surface stats. Additionally, he's had a .333 OBP, .221 ISO and 126 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
Gamers don't need to full stack in cash games. Instead, using a mix of Cron, Hernandez and hitters from the Blue Jays is appealing. The Orioles are a fun stack in tournaments, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
