Tonight’s hump day MLB DFS slate is medium-sized, featuring seven games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate starts at 7:07 pm ET. Today’s primer has three pitchers, one stack, core studs and values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two aces are at the top of the pitcher rankings tonight. The first is the most exciting option in all game types. However, the second is an attractive pivot since the top arm should be on a higher percentage of rosters. The third pitcher is the preferred SP2 in all game types at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at TEX
Strider is pitching out of his mind this season. According to FanGraphs, Strider is 13th in ERA (2.51), second in xERA (2.39), second in xFIP (2.47), first in SIERA (2.31), sixth in WHIP (0.92), first in strikeout rate (42.9 K%), first in Stuff+ (130) and first in called strikes and swinging strikes percentage (37.1 CSW%) among qualified pitchers in 2023.
He's immune to matchup concerns because of his unmatched bat-missing and strikeout abilities. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Braves are -155, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. So, the betting info is also excellent for Strider. He's a no-brainer pick in cash games. Yet, his cathedral-high ceiling is also perfect for GPPs.
J.P. France (HOU) vs. CHC
France is making the most of his first crack at the majors. In two starts spanning 11.2 innings, France has allowed six hits, two walks and one run. He's also struck out eight batters. He can't maintain his pace.
However, France pitched well in Triple-A. In 210.1 innings in Triple-A, he had a 3.64 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 11.1 BB% and 29.8 K%. Obviously, his FIP, WHIP and walk rate left something to be desired. Still, France had a fantasy-friendly strikeout rate and navigated traffic on the bases.
France has a mixed-bag matchup tonight, matching his betting info. The good news is the Cubs are 21st in wRC+ (91) over the last 14 days, and the Astros are -160. The bad news is the Cubs are 12th in wRC+ (104) against righties this year, and the game's total is a slightly intimidating 9.0 runs. It's not a perfect profile for France, but it's good enough to make him the best SP2 in cash games at DK.
GPP Recommendation:
Gerrit Cole (NYY) at TOR
Cole had back-to-back mediocre or worse starts in his two most recent turns. Thankfully, that's forgivable against Tampa Bay's top-shelf offense. The sky's still the limit for Cole. He's spun six quality starts this year, including a shutout on April 16, when he held the Twins scoreless on two hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts.
Cole's full-season marks are also elite. In nine starts spanning 56.2 innings this year, Cole has a 2.22 ERA, 3.53 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 8.0 BB%, 27.4 K% and 28.0 CSW%. He'd be the top-ranked hurler on many slates. Yet, Cole sits behind Strider, and getting the former on a depressed number of rosters is dreamy in tournaments. Furthermore, it's not impossible to use Strider and Cole on the same team at DK if gamers get creative with the upcoming stack and punts.
Top Lineup Stack
Seattle's offense will have another opportunity to take advantage of the outstanding park factors at Fenway Park. The matchup is good, too. This year, Brayan Bello's 3.44 xFIP in five starts suggests his 5.01 ERA is unlucky. However, the youngster's 5.06 xERA indicates otherwise. Bello has coughed up a blistering 1.93 HR/9 this year. In addition, he's struggled against all hitters. Since debuting last year, Bello has allowed a .338 wOBA to lefties and a .377 wOBA to righties.
- Jarred Kelenic let me down last night. Still, it's imperative to have a short memory in DFS. So, going back to the well is inviting. In 157 plate appearances this year, Kelenic has eight homers, six stolen bases, a .331 OBP, .255 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Pete Alonso has had a .351 OBP, .286 ISO and 138 wRC+ against lefties. He's also tied for the MLB lead for homers this year, smacking 14 in 183 plate appearances.
- J.P. Crawford has climbed to the top of Seattle's batting order. He's tailor-made for the top spot in the order as a high on-base hitter. Crawford has a rock-solid .368 OBP and 110 wRC+ this year.
- Starling Marte is a fine option at DK. However, he's a steal at FD. It's not a banner year for him at the dish. Still, he's stolen 11 bases. And Marte has found his footing at the dish since he was moved down to sixth in the order, producing a .313 batting average in his last eight games.
- Teoscar Hernandez is settling into a groove. The power-hitting outfielder has a five-game hit streak, recording multiple hits in three of those contests. Furthermore, Hernandez has reached base safely in 12 of his last 13 games, doing so multiple times in seven games.
- Taylor Trammell is an unattractive option at the same salary as Hernandez on FD. But he's a nifty punt at DK. Trammell smashed a homer last night. And in 236 plate appearances against righties since 2021, he's had a .251 ISO and 110 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Mariners are the only exciting full stack. However, the Mets have some appealing options in mini stacks against Josh Fleming. Tonight's lineup construction essentially qualifies as a stars-and-scrubs build.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
