The Tuesday night MLB DFS slate has 10 games. It begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer features four starting pitchers, a pair of stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher tonight has the highest ceiling. However, his salary requires making significant hitter concessions. So, he is best reserved for tournaments. On the other hand, the second-ranked pitcher is excellent and the best choice in cash games. And the final two pitchers are the best SP2s at DK. Further, they're intriguing GPP options at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. WSH
Webb hasn't been perfect this year. Yet, his overall profile is stellar. According to FanGraphs, Webb has a 3.80 ERA, 3.78 xERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 57.9 GB%, 3.9 BB%, 27.0 K% and 31.1 CSW% in seven starts, totaling 45.0 innings.
In addition, Webb's in good form and dominates at home. He's spun three straight quality starts, tallying a 2.53 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 58.9 GB%, 4.9 BB% and 24.7 K% in 21.1 innings. And in 192.0 innings at home since 2021, Webb has had a 2.48 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.7 BB% and 25.4 K%.
The betting info is also dreamy. According to Betting Pros, the Giants are -250, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs. So, saving money from the top hurler by pivoting to Webb is ideal in cash games. And Webb has a high enough ceiling to warrant GPP consideration.
Lucas Giolito (CWS) at KC
Giolito is in a groove. In his previous five starts spanning 32.2 innings, Giolito has had a 2.20 ERA, 4.02 SIERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, 25.0 K% and 26.1 CSW%. He also had quality starts in four of those turns.
Obviously, Giolito's SIERA wasn't as impressive as his ERA. Still, his combination of walk rate and strikeout rate was good. And the White Sox are -145. The matchup is a mixed bag, though. The Royals are 29th in wRC+ (75), with a 24.7 K% against righties this year. Yet, they're ninth in wRC+ (118) over the last 14 days. As a result, Giolito is a risky pick, reflected by the game's total of 9.0 runs. Nonetheless, he's the best SP2 in cash games at DK and a viable tournament option at FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. HOU
Ohtani is absurdly good. He's 14th in ERA (2.54), 18th in xFIP (3.48), eighth in SIERA (3.16), fifth in WHIP (0.87), second in strikeout rate (38.6 K%) and first in Stuff+ (133) among qualified pitchers this year. Additionally, he's struck out at least eight batters five times in seven starts.
So, Ohtani's ceiling is massive. The matchup is good for him, too. The Astros are 25th in wRC+ (83) against righties this season. And they're 29th in wRC+ (64) in the last 14 days. Thus, Ohtani's ceiling is unrivaled tonight.
Louie Varland (MIN) vs. SD
Varland's 5.91 ERA in two starts spanning 10.2 innings for the Twins this year would seem to be a red flag for using him on DFS rosters. And the righty's 5.46 xERA is ugly as well. However, Varland's 2.62 xFIP, 6.4 BB%, 29.8 K% and 35.3 CSW% are superb.
Homers have been Varland's undoing. He's coughed up four taters at an unsustainable 57.1 HR/FB%. Can homer regression start tonight for the young righty? Maybe. The Twins are -125, but the game's total of 9.0 runs is undesirable. Therefore, Varland's tailor-made for tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Brewers have a cushy matchup at home tonight. Sadly, Noah Syndergaard hasn't turned the clock back this season. Instead, he has a 6.32 ERA, 4.69 xERA and 4.67 xFIP in six starts. The artist formerly known as Thor has also coughed up 1.44 HR/9. Furthermore, he can't control the running game, allowing nine stolen bases this year, 30 in 25 games last year and 178 in 152 in his career.
The Brewers can keep producing DFS goodness after Syndergaard is removed since LA's bullpen is lousy. Dodgers' relievers have the seventh-highest ERA (4.56) in 2023.
- Home (Oracle Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SF -250
Patrick Corbin has allowed three runs or fewer in his last three starts. However, Corbin's larger body of work suggests his recent run of competency is a blip on the radar. The veteran lefty has a 5.17 ERA and 5.87 xERA this year. Furthermore, he had a 5.13 xERA in 2020, 5.62 xERA in 2021 and 6.41 xERA last season. And lefties and righties have demolished him. Left-handed batters have amassed a .355 wOBA against Corbin since 2022, and righties have tallied a .379 wOBA. So, the Giants are a high-upside stack tonight.
- Rowdy Tellez has a .340 OBP, .329 ISO and 139 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year.
- In 291 plate appearances against righties at home since 2021, Byron Buxton had had 22 homers, a .330 OBP, .326 ISO and 153 wRC+.
- In 394 plate appearances against righties at home for the Brewers since they traded for him in 2021, Willy Adames has had 27 homers, a .269 ISO and 122 wRC+.
- Mitch Haniger has had a .347 OBP, .253 ISO and 140 wRC+ in 311 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- J.D. Davis has a .360 OBP, .228 ISO and 139 wRC+ this year. He's had better numbers against righties than lefties in recent years. However, Davis is an above-average hitter against lefties, and Corbin can't handle righties.
- Brice Turang has a .352 OBP and only a .113 ISO against righties this year. Don't fret about the lackluster power. Turang has above-average speed and can steal on Syndergaard, enhancing his DFS potential tonight.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Brewers and the Giants are my favorite sources for hitters tonight. And Buxton's potential is alluring as a one-off against Michael Wacha.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
