Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is ideal for gamers who love large slates. It has 10 games at DraftKings and FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 pm ET at both DFS providers. It’s a pitching-rich slate. However, there are appealing offenses, too. Today’s primer will make the tough cuts, narrowing the options to a manageable number.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
It's not challenging to find top-shelf pitching on this slate. Instead, there were tricky cuts. Still, the top-ranked hurler is lights out with unmatched strikeout ability. The second pitcher on the table is an inviting pivot in GPPs. The third pitcher is the ideal SP2 in cash games at DK but a non-option at his inflated salary on FD. Finally, the last pitcher on the table is a desirable SP2 in GPPs at DK. His ceiling might be a pinch light for tournament consideration on FD, but taking a stab at him to build a hitter-centric lineup isn't outrageous.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. LAD
According to FanGraphs, Strider leads qualified pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings (14.98 K/9), strikeout rate (41.5 K%), called strikes and swinging strikes percentage (36.2 CSW%), Stuff+ (131), Pitching+ (117) and SIERA (2.48). Sadly, the elite righty's 2.96 ERA has fallen short of his ERA estimators. Nevertheless, that's obviously still an excellent mark.
The matchup is challenging. Yet, Strider's excellence makes him matchup-proof. Furthermore, the betting info is good. Per Betting Pros, the Braves are -210, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, Strider is the highest-ceiling option with a useful floor because of his elite strikeout rate, making him the top pitcher in all game types tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) at KC
Rodriguez had a forgettable first season on the Tigers in 2022. However, he's rewarding the club this year for their investment in him by pitching brilliantly. In nine starts spanning 56.2 innings, E-Rod has a 2.06 ERA, 2.85 xERA, 3.80 SIERA, 0.86 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 24.4 K% and 28.4 CSW%.
The veteran lefty has a mid-pack matchup. However, the risk when using him is enhanced by the hitter-friendly park factors at Kauffman Stadium. Still, E-Rod is underpriced at DK relative to how well he's pitched this year, making him an excellent SP2 in all game types but a no-brainer in cash games.
GPP Recommendations:
Yu Darvish (SD) at WSH
Darvish might get lost in the mix tonight since he shares the same slate as Strider and Gerrit Cole. Gamers shouldn't sleep on the frontline starter. In eight starts spanning 48.0 innings this year, he has a 3.56 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 3.77 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, 27.2 K% and 30.5 CSW%.
In addition, Darvish's pitch modeling is elite. He's tied for the 12th-highest Stuff+ (112) among qualified pitchers this year. And the betting info is stellar. The Padres are -150, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Finally, the matchup is good. The Nationals are 27th in wRC+ (81) against right-handed pitchers this year. So, Darvish's ceiling is sky-high.
Brayan Bello (BOS) at LAA
Bello has rounded into good form lately. In his previous five starts totaling 25.2 innings, he had a 3.16 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 9.8 BB%, 23.2 K% and 26.6 CSW%.
Bello's numbers weren't pristine. Yet, they were acceptable. The Angels have a slightly-above average offense, too. So, they aren't the most imposing opponent. As a result, Bello can outperform his salary at DK and FD significantly. He is a high-risk pick worth taking the plunge on in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves scored six runs in a losing effort against a rookie righty last night. They'll face another rookie righty tonight. Bobby Miller will make his big-league debut for the Dodgers tonight. He's pitched fewer than 40 innings at the Triple-A level and didn't demonstrate a mastery of the upper minors. Instead, Miller had a 4.41 ERA in 126.2 innings in Double-A and Triple-A combined. Additionally, he has a 5.65 ERA, 5.31 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 9.8 BB% and 19.7 K% in four starts in Triple-A this year, totaling 14.1 innings. Therefore, the Braves can tee off on Miller if he performs at a similar level to how he's pitched in the minors this year.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Cash
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/MIA -124
The Marlins opened their series at Coors Field last night. They'll get another opportunity to hit in MLB's most hitter-friendly environment in a mouthwatering matchup tonight. In nine starts lasting 44.1 innings this year, Austin Gomber has a 6.70 ERA, 6.98 xERA, 5.03 xFIP, 9.2 BB%, 14.9 K% and 23.9 CSW%. The veteran lefty has also yielded 1.83 HR/9 in 2023. And Colorado's bullpen is below average. So, while Miami's offense isn't potent, they can look explosive tonight. And the game's betting info indicates oddsmakers and bettors expect the Marlins to light up the scoreboard.
- Road (Wrigley Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/NYM -110
Drew Smyly has a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 50.1 innings this season. And his 2.83 xERA indicates he hasn't been entirely lucky. However, his 4.23 xFIP is less flattering. Additionally, Chicago's relievers have the seventh-highest ERA (4.50) this year. It's not a perfect layout for the Mets, but it might be better than meets the eye. Further, the projected lineup has succeeded in recent years against lefties, despite their below-average ranking against southpaws this year. Per FanGraphs, eight of New York's projected starters have had at least a 103 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 (or since debuting in the majors), and six have had at least a 118 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Jorge Soler has had a .350 OBP, .355 ISO and 152 wRC+ against lefties. Additionally, he's been obscene against lefties this year, clubbing seven homers with a .513 OBP, .719 ISO and 321 wRC+ in 39 plate appearances.
- In 143 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has 11 homers, a .413 OBP, .357 ISO and 175 wRC+.
- Willy Adames hits for power against righties at home. In 410 plate appearances at home against righties since the Brewers traded for him in 2021, Adames has had a .266 ISO and 118 wRC+.
- Mark Vientos has substantial power and crushes southpaws. According to Baseball-Reference, Vientos had a 1.094 OPS against lefties last year and a 1.027 OPS against them this year.
- Eddie Rosario has found his footing in the past month. He also hit a homer last night.
- Eduardo Escobar is essentially a bench bat now. Yet, he's a good punt if he's in the lineup tonight. Since 2021, Escobar has had a .254 ISO and 128 wRC+ against lefties. Thankfully, he's continued to thrive against them this year, posting a .273 ISO and 112 wRC+.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The pitching is loaded tonight, creating a need to rummage in the bargain bin for hitters tonight. Still, Soler and Olson are worthy high-salaried picks. And the Braves, Marlins and Mets are superb stacks, offering gamers high-end choices and bargains.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
