Thursday is a light day for MLB action. The largest DFS slate includes only four games. Furthermore, the four-game slate begins at 12:35 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. So, the picks in today’s DFS primer are whittled to a small number befitting the slate size.
Thursday is a light day for MLB action. The largest DFS slate includes only four games. Furthermore, the four-game slate begins at 12:35 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. So, the picks in today’s DFS primer are whittled to a small number befitting the slate size.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options leave something to be desired on this small slate. However, the two suggested hurlers have excellent matchups and exciting ceilings.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. CLE
Sadly, Cease isn't living up to expectations after back-to-back excellent seasons. Nevertheless, he has a dreamy matchup and a track record of success at home.
According to FanGraphs, the Guardians are tied for last in wRC+ (77) against right-handed pitchers this year. Cleveland is also 29th in wRC+ (69) in the previous 14 days.
As for Cease, in 218.1 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 2.93 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP and 30.6 K%. The betting info is also ideal for him. Per Betting Pros, the White Sox are -140, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs. Thus, Cease is the most attractive pitcher on today's slate.
Eury Perez (MIA) vs. WSH
Perez had his big-league debut last week. It was a mixed bag. The 20-year-old righty allowed only four hits, two walks and had seven strikeouts. However, Perez pitched only 4.2 innings and coughed up two homers.
The youngster's dynamic arsenal produced a 17.0 SwStr% and 29.5 CSW% in his debut. Perez was also lights out in Triple-A this year and has a soft matchup today. The Nationals are 27th in wRC+ (79) against righties. Finally, the Marlins are -155, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. So, the rookie is the most inviting SP2 pick at DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rays are MLB's best offense against righties. They've hammered right-handed pitchers for an MLB-high 137 wRC+ this year, 19 points higher than the second-highest mark. They're not slowing down, either. They've had a 130 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Conversely, despite outproducing his ERA estimators, Tylor Megill has been mediocre this year. Megill's 4.02 ERA is lower than his 5.90 xERA, 5.32 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA. So, he's a lousy bet to cool down the white-hot Rays.
- Wander Franco is blossoming into a full-blown stud in his age-22 season. In 188 plate appearances this year, he has seven homers, 14 stolen bases, a .351 OBP, .212 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- Josh Lowe is also breaking out this year. The 25-year-old left-handed-hitting outfielder fills the box score. In 132 plate appearances this year, he has nine homers, seven stolen bases, a .364 OBP, .308 ISO and 170 wRC+.
- Jake Burger is thriving this year and clobbers lefties. In 86 plate appearances against lefties in his career, he has had six homers, a .372 OBP, .351 ISO and 174 wRC+.
- Andrew Vaughn can't match Burger's jaw-dropping numbers against lefties. Nonetheless, Vaughn is also an above-average hitter against left-handed pitchers. In 297 plate appearances against lefties in The Show, he's had a .367 OBP, .177 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- Luke Raley has unloaded on right-handed pitchers this year for a .337 OBP, .306 ISO and 152 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Rays are the backbone for DFS lineups tonight. But Burger and Vaughn are stellar bargains from the White Sox. Luis Arraez wasn't listed above but is a good bargain pick at FD.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
