It’s a matinee main slate for MLB DFS today. There are nine games, starting at 1:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s MLB DFS primer narrows the selections to three starting pitchers, two stacks, core studs and punts/values.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace making his 2023 debut for his new employer is today's headline hurler. And two young righties in plus matchups are excellent selections in cash games and GPPs.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (NYM) at DET
Verlander gets the ball for the first time as a member of the Mets. He made a rehab appearance at the Double-A level, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings on 69 pitches. Verlander allowed two hits, one walk and struck out six batters. He was sharp.
The most significant concern about Verlander is a potential limitation for his pitch count because he threw only 69 in his lone rehab start. Presumably, he'll be permitted to throw at least 80 pitches in a dreamy matchup. The Tigers are tied for 28th in wRC+ (73) and have a 25.5 K% against right-handed pitchers this season.
Verlander was lights out last year, spinning a 1.75 ERA in 175.0 innings. The righty's dominance last year and his sterling showing in his rehab performance make him a high-upside pitcher today. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Mets are -180, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. So, Verlander's the top SP1 in cash games on DK. Yet, his sizable salary and a viable cheaper alternative on FD make him a better option in tournaments there.
George Kirby (SEA) at OAK
Kirby is the best pick in cash games on FD and the ideal SP2 at DK. According to FanGraphs, Kirby has a 2.93 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.7 BB% and 20.0 K% in five starts spanning 30.2 innings this season.
He should build on his strong numbers in a great matchup. The A's are 22nd in wRC+ (87) and have a 26.3 K% against right-handed pitchers this year. Moreover, the Mariners are massive -225 favorites.
GPP Recommendation:
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) at KC
Rodriguez has settled into a groove. He's thrown 10.0 scoreless innings, allowing seven hits, four walks and striking out 15 batters in his last two starts. Furthermore, Rodriguez is a strikeout whiz, fanning at least five batters in every start and at least six in four starts since his big-league debut.
The 23-year-old righty has a golden opportunity to dazzle from the bump again today. The Royals are dead last in wRC+ (65) and have struck out at a 26.0% clip against right-handed pitchers this season. And half of the betting info is DFS-friendly. The Orioles are -164. Unfortunately, the game's total is 9.5 runs at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium. As a result, Rodriguez is best reserved for tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Wade Miley has a 1.86 ERA in five starts totaling 29.0 innings this season. The oddsmakers and bettors aren't fooled, though. Miley's 4.29 xERA and 4.77 xFIP indicate the other shoe will drop, and Coors Field has a funny way of hastening regression for lucky pitchers. Additionally, Miley's low-strikeout approach (16.5 K%) is unlikely to do him favors in MLB's premier hitting venue. The Rockies can rough up Miley, making them the most appealing stack on today's slate.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Rockies have the top stack, but the Cubs aren't far behind. Patrick Corbin takes the bump for the Nationals today, putting the Cubs in a position to light up the scoreboard. The veteran lefty has a 5.74 ERA, 6.92 xERA, 4.61 xFIP and has allowed 1.72 HR/9 in six starts this season. Remarkably, Corbin's ERA this season is his lowest since 2020. Finally, he's dreadful against lefties and righties. Since last year, he's coughed up a .351 wOBA to lefties and a .389 wOBA to righties.
- C.J. Cron draws a lefty at home for the second consecutive game. Since 2021, he's had a .384 OBP, .366 ISO, .435 wOBA and 150 wRC+ against lefties at Coors Field.
- Kris Bryant has excelled against lefties. In 252 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since 2021, he's had a .369 OBP, .262 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Patrick Wisdom has had a .306 ISO and 135 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. The slugging righty has also muscled up for 11 homers in 114 plate appearances this season.
- Nelson Velazquez is a cheap power source with the platoon advantage today. He's tallied a .259 ISO and 111 wRC+ in 93 plate appearances against southpaws since reaching the majors last year.
- Randal Grichuk is the best bargain option at Coors Field today. He's had a .244 ISO and 120 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Luis Garcia is underperforming his batted-ball data this year. So, his numbers should improve. The middle infielder also has a good lineup spot, frequently hitting second.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Rockies and Cubs could be chalky today. Nevertheless, they're the most enticing offenses today. Gamers should invest in both offenses.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
