MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (5/20)

This has been a fascinating week. It’s funny to watch these teams creep back to the mean because that’s always how it works in baseball. The two most surprising starts were the hot opening month by the Cubs and the ice-cold start to the season for the Cardinals. What’s funny is that both of those have turned over the last week, and we anticipate that to continue over the summer months. Overreacting in baseball is one of the critical mistakes many DFS and fantasy managers make, but that’s a recipe for disaster!

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Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is such a good slate from a pitching perspective. We have so many guys to choose from, that I threw the best pitcher in the GPP section. That’s a former Cy Young winner who will get going sooner rather than later. Our top cash game recommendation is one of the hottest pitchers in the NL, so let’s go ahead and start there!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Logan Webb (SF) vs. MIA

Webb isn’t the most exciting pitcher, but there’s no better bet for a quality start on this slate. The San Fran slinger has reached at least six innings in all but one start this year and has never allowed more than four runs. That’s led to his 3.20 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, scoring at least 29 FanDuel points in all but one start. A matchup with Miami is magical, too, with the Marlins ranked 26th in OBP, 28th in runs scored, and 24th in xwOBA.

Jon Gray (TEX) vs. COL

The Rockies are the worst road team in baseball. They’ve been last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA in each of the last two years. The statistics aren’t quite the same this year, but they will be when evaluating this lineup. That’s huge for Gray in a revenge game, scoring 29 and 31 DraftKings points in his two most recent outings.

GPP Recommendations:

Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. CLE

We mentioned overreacting earlier because too many people are doing that with Mad Max. We expect this ace to return to his usual self soon, collecting a 2.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 32 percent K rate over the last two years. He’s obviously gotten off to a rough start this season behind his 4.88 ERA, but it’s just a matter of time before he creeps closer to those two-year averages. A home matchup with Cleveland could kickstart that run, with the Guardians ranked 29th in runs scored and last in wOBA.

Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. OAK

There’s no better bet for a win on this slate. Brown is projected to be a -300 favorite in this game, and that’s simply impossible to overlook. This youngster has earned that line, generating a 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP since last year’s call-up. The matchup with Oakland is the icing on the cake, with the A’s ranked 26th in runs scored and 28th in xwOBA.

Top Lineup Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Noah Syndergaard)

• Home (Busch Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/STL -110

Don’t look now, but the Cardinals are starting to get hot. This looked like one of the best lineups in the NL at the beginning of the season, and they’re showing that right now. They come into this matchup winning nine of their last 12 games, averaging 8.7 runs in those nine victories. That’s the highest total in baseball, and we’re not worried about them facing a washed-up Endgame-type Thor. He’s got a 5.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this year.

Houston Astros (vs. JP Sears)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/HOU -300

It’s going to be tough to fade the Astros this weekend. This is one of the best lineups in the AL, and they’re facing an Oakland pitching staff with a 7.13 ERA. I had to double-check that number because it’s 1.5 runs bigger than the team in 29th. Sears is one of those duds, providing a 5.27 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Jameson Taillon)

• Home (Citizens Bank Ballpark)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/PHI -170

Taillon has been good at times in his career, but it’s not clicking this season, The right-hander has registered a 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in a nightmarish campaign. Those devilish averages are bad news against a dangerous lineup like Philly, especially since CBP is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the sport.

Core Studs

• Don’t look now, but Jusge is starting to get hot. We all know this is the best hitter in the sport when he’s rolling, knocking out 62 homers and 132 RBI last year. One of those home run binges just started earlier in the week, picking up seven bombs over his last seven games. We’d play him against anyone, but hitting in Great American Smallpark against a pitcher with a 6.26 ERA is the cherry on top.
• Harper made a historical return from Tommy John surgery, and he looks as good as ever. The perennial MVP candidate has a typical .386 OBP, which is right on par with his .390 career OBP and .912 career OPS. There are not many better players out there, and he should cruise against a struggling Taillon.
• Bregman is always a top-notch option when he faces lefties. Throughout his career, AB is flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That always has him in the heart of this lineup, and he should destroy this atrocious A’s pitching staff.
• Muncy goes on these power binges where he looks like the best masher in the NL, and he’s on one of them right now. He’s got three homers over the last five games and started the year with 11 bombs across his first 22 outings. He’s also been much better against righties throughout his career, which is fantastic since Jack Flaherty has a 4.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
• The Rays always find these random players, and Lowe is yet another diamond in the rough. He’s got 10 homers and seven steals this season, backed by his .306 AVG. Those averages might send him to the All-Star game because he’s also got a 1.073 OPS across his last 10 outings.

Value Plays/Punts

• Baez was benched about a month ago, but he’s been one of the best shortstops in baseball since then. In fact, Javy has a .298 AVG, .351 OBP, and .784 OPS across his last 29 games. That’s all you can ask for since he’s got a tremendous power-speed combo, and Baez has always been much better against southpaws throughout his career. He’s got a .880 OPS against left-handers over the last three years and a 1.000 OPS in 20 at-bats against Corbin.
• Nothing about Abreu’s season will encourage you to use him, but this has been one of the most reliable players for a decade. That’s why it’s shocking to see him in this price range because he’s still in the heart of an amazing Astros lineup. This guy will get going, and we’ll bet on it starting against these crappy Oakland lefties.
• Vargas is one of the top prospects in the LA organization, and he’s starting to get going. He has a .342 OBP this year but a .874 OPS across his last eight outings. That makes him way too cheap below $3,000, because this kid is getting better every time he’s out there. We already talked about how bad Flaherty has been, and it should have Vargas hitting fifth or sixth in this dominant Dodgers lineup.
• Some players get overlooked because they play for bad teams, and Dom Smith is one of them. This guy has raked throughout his career and is generating a .278 AVG and .364 OBP in what’s quietly been a nice year. His biggest asset is getting the platoon advantage against Alex Faedo, who has a career ERA above 5.00.

Hitter Strategy

This slate should be a breeze from a lineup construction standpoint. We have numerous pitchers that are good values and even more hitters that are way too cheap. You can squeeze in hitters like Smith and Vargas and then do whatever you want with the rest of your build. That’s rare on such a large slate, but it’ll allow us to use whatever pitchers we want to. Our favorite teams to stack include the Dodgers, Astros, Reds, Tigers, Phillies, and Cardinals. There are plenty of options between all of those teams, but Houston is our top choice of the day!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.