MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (5/6)

I had fun writing the reliever article earlier in the week, but it’s time to dive into some DFS. That’s what’s fascinating about baseball because there are so many moving parts to focus on. All of these different aspects are what make teams so special, and it’s why Tampa has become such a force. They don’t have many big-name players, but all the pieces are in play for this to be a perfect baseball team. Piecing things together is my favorite part of DFS, and we’re just trying to build something special of our own.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

It’s rare to have such a discrepancy between the skills of our four pitchers, but we have two elite options and two risky ones. The top-notch guys might be the favorites for Cy Young in each league, while the other two have had their fair share of struggles. Mixing and matching guys like this is the best way to build a lineup because it’s nearly impossible to squeeze in two aces.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. BAL

I wasn’t so sure that Strider would carry over his absurd form from last year, but he’s truly developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball. The right-hander has a 2.57 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 14.7 K/9 rate. Amazingly, that’s worse than his averages last year, despite scoring at least 33 FanDuel points in every start. Facing the Orioles can be scary, but this isn’t the sort of lineup that worries us. That’s why Strider is a -230 favorite, with the O’s projected for just 3.5 runs.

Sonny Gray (MIN) at CLE

Gray has been a Cy Young pitcher in the past, and he’s recaptured that form through the opening month. Sonny is sporting a 0.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also scored at least 33 FanDuel points in five straight starts, generating a 12.0 K/9 rate in that span. He should be able to keep that going against the Guardians, with Cleveland ranked 24th in OBP, 27th in runs scored, and 28th in wOBA.

GPP Recommendations:

Drew Smyly (CHC) vs. MIA

Smyly has been dreadful over the last few years, but something has changed this season. The lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five consecutive starts, totaling a 1.48 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in that span. That’s one of the best stretches of any pitcher over the last month, and a matchup with Miami should keep him rolling. The Marlins rank 23rd in OBP, 24th in xwOBA, and 29th in runs scored.

Brady Singer (KC) vs. OAK

It’s been a terrible start to the year for Singer, but a matchup with Oakland could be just what the doctor ordered. The A’s are simply the worst offense in the sport, sitting 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s precisely what they did last season, when Singer provided a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. We just saw this guy score 40 FanDuel points two starts ago, and he could definitely recapture that 2022 form against the worst lineup in MLB.

Top Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. Kyle Bradish)

• Home (Truist Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -230

Bradish was among the highest touted prospects a few years ago, but it just hasn’t clicked for the right-hander. He’s got a 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP this year while tallying a 5.03 ERA and 1.45 WHIP throughout his career. Numbers like those won’t bode well against a blistering offense like the Braves, with Atlanta ranked third in OBP and fifth in runs scored.

New York Mets (vs. Austin Gomber)

• Home (Citi Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYM -220

We’ll probably stack against the Rockies on every slate we write about. They have the worst pitching staff in baseball, with Gomber generating a 7.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. He also pitches from the left side, which is scary since Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Fransisco Lindor are better from the right side. This offense hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, but a big weekend against Colorado should skyrocket them up the statistics leaderboard.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Ken Waldichuk)

• Home (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: High
• Risk: High
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 10 Runs/KC -170

It’s rare to stack one of the worst offenses in baseball, but we love the value. This Royals team still has plenty of talented hitters, and they should get going against this atrocious A’s pitching staff. Waldichuk is the guy toeing the rubber for Oakland here, accumulating a 7.26 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The main reason we want to ride the Royals is the pricing, though, because a KC stack will be easy to work in with studs like Strider and Sonny.

Core Studs

• Acuna is the best player in baseball. This youngster took down Player of the Month for April, collecting a .355 AVG, .445 OBP, and 1.034 OPS. That’s amazing because it doesn’t even consider his elite speed, leading the league with 15 steals. That’s why he’s the highest-scoring player in fantasy, and we can’t fade him against a struggling pitcher like Bradish.
• Alonso hasn’t been hitting for average this year, but his power stroke is still there. The Polar Bear is up to 11 homers and 28 RBI, hitting in the heart of this Mets lineup. That makes him impossible to fade if we want to stack NY, especially since Pete gets the platoon advantage against the struggling Gomber.
• Bichette is one of the most talented players in the game, and he’s off to a fantastic start. The slugging shortstop is hitting .331 en route to a 911 OPS. He’s traditionally been one of the best stat-stuffers around, providing elite value through runs, RBI, steals, and home runs amid one of the best lineups in baseball. We also don’t mind that John Oviedo has allowed 11 runs across his last two starts.
• Bregman has been killing lefties throughout his career, and he’s had his way with Marco Gonzales. In 39 at-bats against Marco, Bregman has maintained a .290 AVG and .474 SLG. That’s no surprise when looking at his career splits, flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against lefties.
• The Braves are our favorite stack of the day, and Olson would have to be a primary piece of it. The slugging first baseman has clobbered righties throughout his career, posting an ISO above .250 against them. He’s also rolling right now, totaling a .356 OBP and .842 OPS across his last 10 outings.

Value Plays/Punts

• This is risky with how Melendez has been playing, but we love him in this spot. We already discussed how KC is one of our favorite cheap stacks of the day, and MJ would have to be the first guy in. He typically bats leadoff or cleanup, registering a.297 AVG and .850 OPS against lefties since his call-up.
• Don’t look now, but Eloy is starting to get hot. This power hitter has always been dominant when healthy, generating a .565 OBP and 1.422 OPS across his last five outings. That’s awesome since he gets the platoon advantage against a struggling Nick Lodolo, who’s got a 6.16 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
• Marte has mauled lefties throughout his career and is off to a great start this season. The second baseman has a .839 OPS through the opening month, tallying a .385 OBP and .965 OPS against left-handers since 2021. He’s also scorching right now, homering in three of his last four outings.
• Yoshida struggled in his first few weeks at this level, but he’s really found his stroke. The Japanese outfielder is amid a 14-game hitting streak, amassing a .484 OBP and 1.287 OPS in that span. That’s one of the best two-week stretches of any player all year, and it should continue since he has the platoon advantage in one of the most hitter-friendly parks around.
• Santana has been a sneaky signing by Pittsburgh, hitting in the heart of their lineup. His season-long numbers are nothing special, but he faces a pitcher with a 5.29 ERA. It’s a guy Santana has slaughtered throughout his career, with Carlos collecting a .460 OBP and .960 OPS in nearly 40 at-bats against Jose Berrios.

Hitter Strategy

Man, I love some of the value hitters on this slate. Many of these guys are way too cheap and should be stacked with some of the offenses mentioned above. The lineups that we really love include the Braves, Mets, Royals, Blue Jays, Astros, Reds, White Sox, Red Sox, Phillies, and Nationals. There’s plenty of value between all of those teams, and it should be easy to pair those players with studs like Strider and Gray.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can start with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.