Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has seven games. It begins at the unconventional time of 7:20 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The following picks for starting pitchers, stacks, core studs and values/punts are narrowed to fit the medium size of the slate.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
One pitcher is easily ahead of the others on a slate with a lackluster group of options. The second listed pitcher is a rock-solid SP2 at DK. Finally, the last pitcher on the table is adequate but benefits from an ideal matchup.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. OAK
Castillo hasn't been in his best form in his previous three starts. Still, his numbers for the whole season are stellar. According to FanGraphs, Castillo has a 3.23 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 3.45 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 27.8 K% and 28.6 CSW% in nine starts this year, totaling 51.2 innings.
Additionally, Castillo has dazzled at home since the Mariners traded for him last year. In 11 turns in Seattle for the Mariners, Castillo has had six quality starts, a 2.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 11.4 K/9. The matchup and betting info is perfect, too.
The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (87) and have a 26.2 K% against righties this year. Oakland is also 21st in wRC+ (90) and has a 25.4 K% in the last 14 days. So, understandably, the Mariners are -305, and the game's total is 7.5 runs, per BettingPros.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. SF
Sadly, Ober's ERA estimators suggest he's been lucky this year. So, Ober's 3.62 xERA is a better barometer of his actual pitching ability than his 1.78 ERA in five starts spanning 30.1 innings. However, Ober has outkicked his 4.16 xFIP in his career, earning a 3.48 ERA. Thus, gamers probably shouldn't overreact to Ober's 4.56 xFIP this year.
The 27-year-old righty's 24.1 K% is also fantasy-friendly. Although, the matchup and betting info is a mixed bag. The Giants are sixth in wRC+ (110) against right-handed pitchers this year, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. So, there's some risk for using Ober. However, the Giants have a 24.8 K% against righties in 2023. They're also 25th in wRC+ (85) over the last 14 days, and the Twins are -145. Overall, Ober is a desirable option relative to the other starting pitchers on tonight's slate.
GPP Recommendation:
Michael Lorenzen (DET) at KC
Lorenzen is a decent starting pitcher. In six starts spanning 34.0 innings this year, he has a 3.44 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.4 BB% and 18.6 K%. So no. His numbers won't get DFS gamers worked up into a frenzy. Nevertheless, they're acceptable.
Lorenzen also has eye-catching pitch modeling data. Per FanGraphs, he has a 104 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. Finally, the matchup enhances the appeal of using Lorenzen tonight. The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (74) against right-handed pitchers this year and 29th (77 wRC+) in the last 14 days.
Top Lineup Stacks
Gavin Stone will likely be an excellent big-league starter. He thoroughly dominated the minors last year. Sadly, he was shaky in his first start in The Show. He also had a 4.04 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP and 12.8 BB% in eight starts in Triple-A this season. In addition, LA's bullpen is wretched. The Dodgers' relievers have the fifth-highest ERA (4.70) in 2023. So, Atlanta's offense is an appealing stack tonight.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/SEA -305
The Mariners are a matchup-driven stack tonight. Unfortunately, their offense can flub a golden opportunity. Yet, Kyle Muller and Oakland's dreadful bullpen is an ideal matchup for Seattle showing out. Among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, Muller has the highest ERA (7.71), the highest xERA (7.53) and the 12th-highest xFIP (5.22).
He's also destroyed by all hitters. Left-handed batters have a .397 wOBA and right-handed batters have a .410 wOBA against Muller this year. Seattle can rough him up and hammer Oakland's MLB-worst bullpen. Oakland's relievers have a 6.49 ERA in 2023, over a run higher than the second-highest ERA (5.41).
- Ronald Acuna is having a monster offensive season. In 209 plate appearances this year, he has 11 homers, 18 stolen bases, a .431 OBP, .256 ISO and 177 wRC+.
- Matt Olson is hammering righties this year. In 140 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, he has a .407 OBP, .354 ISO and 172 wRC+.
- Sadly, Austin Riley isn't having his best season at the plate. However, the right-handed slugger is outstanding against changeups. Among qualified hitters since 2021, Riley has the 12th-highest run value against changeups. Meanwhile, the changeup is Stone's best offering, and he used it at a 42.9% clip in his big-league debut.
- Teoscar Hernandez is a lefty killer. In 277 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .357 OBP, .363 ISO and 182 wRC+.
- In his first 30 plate appearances against lefties in his young big-league career, Jose Caballero has a .400 OBP and 127 wRC+.
- Jared Walsh is an FD-specific punt. He has the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck and Boston's righty struggles with left-handed batters. He's coughed up a .482 slugging and .343 wOBA to 97 left-handed batters this season.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The top-shelf hitters in Atlanta's lineup are the core studs tonight. The Mariners also have a useful stack. Gamers should also keep tabs on tonight's lineups at Coors Field. However, instead of stacking the Rockies or Marlins, I prefer using only one or two hitters to get exposure.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
