Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is large. It has 12 games and begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite the large player pool for tonight’s MLB DFS action, the touted pitchers and stacks were narrowed to three and two, respectively. There are also the customary three core studs. However, notable salary discrepancies at DK and FD necessitated including a whopping five values/punts.
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is large. It has 12 games and begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite the large player pool for tonight’s MLB DFS action, the touted pitchers and stacks were narrowed to three and two, respectively. There are also the customary three core studs. However, notable salary discrepancies at DK and FD necessitated including a whopping five values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A righty who entered the year as a rock-solid starting pitcher has kicked it up a notch after tweaking his repertoire in the offseason. He's the top starting pitcher tonight. And a pair of lefties are appealing SP2s at DK in cash games and GPPs. The lefties are also viable options in tournaments at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Joe Ryan (MIN) at LAA
Ryan is pitching at a legitimate ace level this year after adjusting his arsenal at Driveline during the offseason. According to FanGraphs, he's sixth in ERA (2.16), first in xERA (2.16), 10th in xFIP (3.13), fifth in SIERA (3.07), second in WHIP (0.84), tied for third in walk rate (3.6 BB%), eighth in strikeout rate (29.7 K%), tied for 14th in Stuff+ (111) and 15th in called strikes and swinging strikes percentage (29.8 CSW%) among qualified pitchers this year. So, Ryan is pitching like a frontline starter by any measure. He's also chewed up 50.0 innings in eight starts.
The Angels are a mid-pack matchup tonight. And the betting info is merely good but not great. Per Betting Pros, the Twins are -124, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, Ryan isn't a risk-free choice. Still, he's the top-ranked hurler tonight.
Martin Perez (TEX) vs. COL
Perez isn't flawless. However, he's pitched adequately overall since last year and produced dazzling numbers at home. In 104.0 innings at home since last season, Perez has had a 2.77 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, 9.5 BB% and 22.5 K%.
The veteran lefty has a dreamy matchup tonight to increase the appeal of using him in DFS. The Rockies are last in wRC+ (70) against lefties this year, with an exploitable 24.5 K%. Furthermore, they're 28th in wRC+ (77) on the road, fanning at a 25.1% clip. Finally, the Rangers are -225, the cherry on top of Perez's case for DFS usage tonight.
GPP Recommendation:
James Paxton (BOS) at SD
Paxton has a challenging matchup tonight in only his second start in the majors since 2021. Yet, he's worth a tournament flyer after passing his first test with flying colors when he held St. Louis's lefty-killing lineup in check at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The Padres are roughly an equally formidable foe tonight, but PETCO Park has the lowest park factor for runs (0.856).
Paxton allowed two runs on four hits, one walk and nine strikeouts in 5.0 innings in his 2023 debut for the Red Sox last week. His underlying data was encouraging, too. Per FanGraphs, his fastball's average velocity was 96.6 mph, its fastest since 2016. And Paxton had a dominant 32.2 CSW%. Of course, he could come crashing back to Earth tonight and has more injury risk than many hurlers because of his track record of injuries. Regardless, the risks should depress the percentage of rosters he's on, making him a dreamy GPP pick.
Top Lineup Stacks
Karl Kauffmann is expected to make his big-league debut for the Rockies tonight. The 25-year-old righty will have his hands full and hasn't graduated from the minors with honors. Instead, Kauffmann has had a 6.68 ERA, 6.13 FIP, 1.79 WHIP, 11.9 BB% and 18.0 K% in 101.0 innings in Triple-A. Colorado's bullpen is a tire fire as well. Colorado's relievers are tied for the sixth-highest ERA (4.72) in 2023. So, this is a blow-up spot for the Rangers.
- Road (Minute Maid Park)
- Value: Medium (FD)/High (DK)
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/OAK +205
No one will confuse the A's for a potent offense. Yet, Brandon Bielak might make them look like an explosive offense tonight. This year, the 27-year-old righty's 3.29 ERA is markedly lower than his ERA estimators. His 8.32 xERA, 5.04 xFIP and 4.96 SIERA all suggest regression is around the corner. Bielak has also coughed up 1.98 HR/9 this year and 1.58 HR/9 in 108.0 innings in his big-league career. So, the A's have tater potential. And, of course, they're an affordable stack at FD and an extremely cap-friendly stack at DK.
- Marcus Semien is excellent in same-handed matchups. Since 2021, he's had a .325 OBP, .238 ISO and 125 wRC+ against righties. Semien also has a .385 OBP, .240 ISO and 156 wRC+ against them this season.
- Corey Seager rips the cover off the ball against righties. Since 2021, he's had a .364 OBP, .200 ISO and 131 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. In addition, he's kicked it up to a .447 OBP, .207 ISO and 168 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances against righties this year.
- Nathaniel Lowe is a decent option on DK but more appealing on FD. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has a .349 OBP, .202 ISO and 129 wRC+ against righties this year.
- Vinnie Pasquantino is why Lowe is only a good option at DK, not a great one. Kansas City's left-handed-hitting first baseman has had 17 homers, a .355 OBP, .202 ISO and 130 wRC+ in 381 plate appearances against righties in The Show.
- J.J. Bleday is a useful option at DK. However, he's a screaming value at the minimum salary on FD. In 40 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .325 OBP, .324 ISO and 153 wRC+.
- Brent Rooker is going nuts this season. The right-handed slugger has a .383 OBP, .270 ISO and 157 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Apparently, DK hasn't gotten the memo, making him an undeniable value there. In addition, Bielak has coughed up a .373 OBP, .533 SLG and .392 wOBA to righties since last season.
- Jake Burger is an OK option at FD. Yet, he's far more appealing at DK. In 65 plate appearances against righties this year, he has seven homers, a .323 OBP, .424 ISO and 168 wRC+.
- Brett Baty has been roughly an average hitter this season, sporting a 102 wRC+. However, he's climbed to fifth in the batting order against righties and has more encouraging batted-ball data than his surface stats.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Rangers are a treasure trove of DFS options tonight against a debuting righty who struggled in Triple-A. The Athletics are a nifty stacking option in tournaments and have some excellent bargains for all game types.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
