The Friday MLB DFS main slate is ideal for gamers who love large ones. It has 11 games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun starts at 7:05 pm ET. Today’s MLB DFS primer has four suggested pitchers, three stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is plentiful tonight. However, a bargain salary on a top-shelf hurler earned him the top honors tonight. The second and third pitchers on the table have fun ceilings for tournaments. And the fourth pitcher is a rock-solid SP2 in cash games at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Fried (ATL) vs. BAL
Fried is on cruise control this year. According to FanGraphs, in four starts totaling 20.0 innings, Fried has a 0.45 ERA, 1.82 xERA, 3.12 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 64.7 GB%, 5.4 BB% and 24.3 K%. Further, he hasn't allowed a run in his past three starts, pitching 5.0, 6.2 and 5.0 innings.
Admittedly, Fried has a challenging matchup tonight. So, the risk for using him is medium. However, the betting info is encouraging. According to Betting Pros, the Braves are -200, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. So, Fried is the top option in cash games at both DFS providers.
Bailey Ober (MIN) at CLE
Ober is approximately a five-and-dive pitcher. He's spun 5.2 innings in each of his turns for the Twins this year. Moreover, Ober has pitched at least 6.0 innings only five times in 33 starts for the Twins since debuting in 2021.
Nevertheless, the approach suits the righty. Ober has a 1.59 ERA, 3.25 xERA and 1.06 WHIP this year. And he's had a 3.66 ERA, 3.95 SIERA and 1.14 WHIP in his career. Ober's also struck out an adequate 22.7% of the batters he's faced this year and 24.2% of them in his career.
The matchup is also good for him tonight. The Guardians are tied for 25th in wRC+ (81) against right-handed pitchers in 2023. In addition, the Twins are -126. Still, the game's total is 8.5 runs, and the Guardians have struck out in an unexciting 19.7% of their plate appearances against righties this year. It's not a perfect matchup. Nevertheless, Ober's a rock-solid SP2 in cash games at DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Cristian Javier (HOU) at SEA
The betting info calls for a pitchers' duel in Seattle. The Astros are sight underdogs (+125). However, the game's total is only 7.0 runs.
Javier is capable of handling his side of the duel. In six starts totaling 33.2 innings this year, he has a 3.48 ERA, 3.90 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.0 BB% and 25.2 K%. Javier's 4.88 xERA isn't as flattering, but the matchup alleviates concern. The Mariners are 18th in wRC+ (98) against righties and have a DFS-friendly 26.3 K% against them. So, Javier's ceiling is a perfect fit in GPPs.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at SF
Burnes was shaky through his first two starts this year. Fortunately, he's rounded into better form in subsequent starts. In his last four starts spanning 24.1 innings, Burnes has had a 1.85 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 6.6 BB% and 23.1 K%.
The strikeouts were low relative to Burnes's standard output. However, the righty's 14.8 SwStr% was outstanding. Thus, more strikeouts should be on the horizon, and the Giants should help him pile them up tonight. San Francisco has the third-highest strikeout rate (26.2 K%) against righties this year.
Although, they pose a threat to Burnes since they have a 122 wRC+ against righties. Ultimately, the betting info is the cherry on top for using Burnes in tournaments. The Brewers are -146, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Cardinals are one of the top offenses against lefties. They're seventh in wRC+ (117) against southpaws this year. In addition, seven of their projected starters have had at least a 128 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. The Cards have a compelling case for stacking against any lefty, and Matthew Boyd is an unimposing left-handed pitcher. The 32-year-old lefty has a 5.47 ERA, 4.06 xERA and 5.25 xFIP this season.
- Road (Progressive Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -126
The Twins are an above-average offense against righties this season, tying for eighth in wRC+ (107). They also have seven hitters with at least a 103 wRC+ against righties since 2021, with four sporting at least a 118 wRC+. The matchup is good as well. Although, there's a caveat. Peyton Battenfield has a 4.67 ERA, 7.46 xERA and 5.87 xFIP in 17.1 innings for the Guardians. However, Cleveland's relievers have the eighth-lowest ERA (3.35) this year. Overall, Minnesota's profile is befitting a GPP stack.
- Home (Citi Field)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYM -240
The Mets have a cupcake matchup tonight. Antonio Senzatela will make his 2023 debut tonight. Last year, he had a 5.07 ERA and 5.24 xERA in 92.1 innings. He's not merely a victim of pitching home games at Coors Field, either. Instead, he had a 6.41 ERA in road starts last season. Senzatela's also had a 5.24 ERA in road starts in his career.
Additionally, Colorado's bullpen is a punching bag. They're tied for the seventh-highest ERA (4.50) this season. Therefore, the Mets have an excellent matchup from the start of the game through its conclusion. As a result, they're a high-ceiling stack tonight.
- Paul Goldschmidt has hammered lefties. Since 2021, he's had a .453 OBP, .327 ISO and 215 wRC+ against them. Goldy's also crushing the ball this season. Per Baseball Savant, he has a .429 xwOBA.
- Willson Contreras is another desirable lefty killer in St. Louis's lineup. He's had a .341 OBP, .285 ISO and 137 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021.
- Since 2021, Byron Buxton has lit up righties for a .315 ISO and 147 wRC+. Furthermore, he has eight homers, two stolen bases, 21 runs, 19 RBI, a .350 OBP, .308 ISO and 153 wRC+ this year.
- Brett Baty didn't hit the ground running when he received a cup of coffee last year. He's enjoying more success in his second opportunity. In 49 plate appearances this year, Baty has two homers, a .367 OBP, .178 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- Jason Heyward has unlocked his bat with the Dodgers. In 70 plate appearances this year, the veteran outfielder has four homers, one stolen base, a .353 OBP, .281 ISO and 136 wRC+. Additionally, he has a juicy .378 xwOBA.
- Dylan Carlson is a pain for lefties. In 302 plate appearances against them since 2021, he's had a .379 OBP and 143 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Cardinals are my favorite source of hitters tonight. Yet, the Twins and Mets also have exciting options to use on DFS rosters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
