Friday is a fantastic night for baseball and a large-sized DFS main slate. There are a dozen games on tonight’s main slate. It begins at 7:05 pm ET. Additionally, the slate has something for everyone. There’s a wealth of pitching and high-upside offenses in good matchups. Today’s suggested options are vast, including four pitchers, two stacks, three studs and four values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A blossoming starter and an established ace are the top pitchers in cash games and GPPs, respectively. Although, the top hurler's ceiling is also ideal for tournaments. A veteran lefty who appeared washed-up early in the year and has come on strong lately is a stellar option. And the final listed pitcher on the table is a salary-fueled GPP suggestion.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Hunter Brown (HOU) at OAK
Brown pitched very well in Triple-A and a cup of coffee in the majors last year, and he's thrived so far in his sophomore campaign. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts totaling 50.2 innings, Brown has a 3.20 ERA, 4.01 xERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 53.0 GB%, 8.1 BB%, 26.8 K% and 28.7 CSW%.
The young righty also dominated tonight's opponent in his most recent turn. He held the A's to two runs (one earned) on five hits, zero walks and nine strikeouts in 6.0 innings. The outcome was unsurprising since Oakland's offense stinks. The A's are 24th in wRC+ (84) against righties and have a 26.4 K% against them. And the betting info is the cherry on top. Per Betting Pros, the Astros are -260, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. So, Brown has a dreamy blend of a high floor and ceiling.
Chris Sale (BOS) at ARI
Sale looked like he might be on his last legs to open the year. However, he's resembled his peak years recently. In his previous four starts spanning 27.1 innings, Sale has had a 2.30 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 0.70 WHIP, 2.9 BB%, 30.8 K% and 30.0 CSW%.
The veteran lefty can stay hot in a good matchup tonight. The Diamondbacks are 19th in wRC+ (100) against lefties this year. And while the game's total of 9.0 runs isn't ideal, Boston is a -144 favorite. Sale is an outstanding SP2 at DK in all game types. He's also a high-upside tournament pick at FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) at MIN
Gausman has chewed up 63.0 innings in 10 starts this year, spinning a 3.14 ERA, 3.14 xERA, 2.71 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 4.3 BB%, 31.9 K% and 29.5 CSW%. In addition, the veteran righty has been a road warrior in recent years. In 235.1 innings on the road since 2021, Gausman has had a 2.56 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 4.7 BB% and 29.3 K%.
The 32-year-old pitcher can carve up even the best teams. Still, tonight's matchup is perfect for tournaments. The Twins have an above-average offense, tying for 12th in wRC+ (103) against righties this year. However, they've punched out at a staggering 25.6% clip against them. So, while the Twins aren't a soft matchup, Gausman can pile up strikeouts and hit his ceiling if he's sharp. And the betting info is favorable. The Blue Jays are -145, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Randy Vasquez (NYY) vs. SD
Vasquez had a poor start to the year. However, he's hit his stride just in time for his big-league debut. In his last four starts in Triple-A, Vasquez had a 2.14 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 25.0 K%. The 24-year-old pitcher tossed 5.0, 5.0, 6.0 and 5.0 innings during that stretch. So, a five-and-dive start is probably close to his ceiling tonight.
Still, at his mediocre-hitter-esque salary, the bar is low for him to be a DFS value. And the matchup can help him hit the ground running. The Padres have star power, but they've been below average against righties this year, ranking 21st in wRC+ (89). They're also mired in a funk, tying for 24th in wRC+ (83) over the last 14 days. They could torch Vasquez if he wilts under the bright lights. Nonetheless, Vasquez isn't an outrageous GPP pick.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Mets get a triple dose of excellent news for their offense tonight. First, Coors Field is MLB's most hitter-friendly venue. Second, Connor Seabold has a 5.97 ERA, 4.72 xERA, 5.30 xFIP and has allowed 1.71 HR/9 in 31.2 innings this year. Moreover, lefties and righties have destroyed him. The former have a .383 wOBA and the latter have a .403 wOBA against him in 2023. Third, Colorado's bullpen is below average, tying for the 10th-highest ERA (4.40). So, it will be shocking if the Mets don't light up the scoreboard tonight.
- Home (Angel Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAA -140
Jesus Luzardo could mow down the Angels. He entered his most recent start with a 3.16 ERA, 7.8 BB% and 25.2 K% in his first nine starts. However, Luzardo had a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.34 xFIP, providing some evidence regression was in order. The other shoe dropped in his 10th start of the year when he coughed up six runs on six hits (two homers), one walk and eight strikeouts to the Giants in 5.0 innings. Luzardo has an electrifying arsenal that could give the Angels fits. However, he showed some chinks in the armor in his last start, and the Angels have top-shelf talent and depth in their batting order, making them an exciting stack in tournaments.
- Pete Alonso's power is ideal for the matchup and hitting conditions at Coors Field. He's muscled up for a .289 ISO against righties this year.
- Michael Conforto has been an unstoppable force at the dish lately. The left-handed-hitting outfielder reached base in all five of his plate appearances last night, slugged a homer and stole a base. In his last 60 plate appearances, he's had a .417 OBP and seven homers.
- Brandon Nimmo will get the first crack at Seabold from New York's leadoff spot. He's an ideal table-setter, tallying a .374 OBP, .156 ISO and 133 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
- Brett Baty raked in the minors and has had a rock-solid 111 wRC+ in his first 89 plate appearances against righties in The Show.
- It's a shame Zach Neto hits ninth. Yet, the rest of his profile is a steal at his punt salary. In 25 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie campaign, he has a .400 OBP, .273 ISO and 175 wRC+. He also excelled with the platoon advantage in the minors.
- In 238 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Brandon Drury has had a .295 ISO and 146 wRC+. In addition, he has had positive run values against fastballs, sliders and changeups since 2021. Meanwhile, this year, Luzardo's pitch mix is 52.4% fastballs, 29.8% sliders, and 17.7% changeups.
- Francisco Alvarez is a better pick in tournaments than cash games on FD since he bats ninth. However, he's a no-brainer at catcher in all game types on DK. In 78 plate appearances against righties in his young career, he's had a .359 OBP, .371 ISO and 178 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Mets will likely be a chalky selection tonight. Still, they're the best stack, and the large size of the slate should keep the percentage of rosters their hitters are on in check. Further, gamers can get creative when stacking them. For instance, a wrap-around stack is an option. The Angels also have some appealing picks in all game types and a fun GPP stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
