The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of Josh Downs.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: Josh Downs
Stats:
- 2022 (286 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)
- Yards per route run: 87th
- PFF receiving grade: 5th
- 2021 (251 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)
- Yards per route run: 29th
- PFF receiving grade: 29th
- Career
- 87th percentile breakout age
- 69th percentile college dominator
- 97th percentile college target share
Scouting report:
- Downs has been a productive slot option at North Carolina (89% collegiate slot rate). He has a nose for the soft spots in zone coverage.
- He was utilized on screens and easy crossers to capitalize on his RAC ability. Downs weaves through traffic and sets up blocks after the catch like a running back. His first step and burst pop on film. Because of it, he can succeed on slants, drive routes, and screens.
- Downs has some of the most dependable hands in this class. Among 53 wide receivers last year with at least 100 targets, he ranked second in contested catch rate (72.2%) and logged the eighth-lowest drop rate.
- He varies his tempo in his routes and releases constantly. He’ll utilize speed releases and then slow-play a corner on the next rep before exploding into his stem.
- His size shows up on boundary routes where he can get pressed into the boundary and off his route. While he’s elusive after the catch, this is because of his quick feet and vision. He’s not a tackle breaker and can be dropped by a decent wrap or corner catching him at the ankles.
- Downs can get open deep with subtle, smooth changes of direction on posts and corners, but if you’re asking him to win on out and ups or nines, you could have a problem. His lack of a third gear deep shows up on verticals. He routinely leaves corners unstacked, and without a home-run gear, it creates problems for him at the catch point. Downs should be an underneath zone-beating option and YAC pillar in the NFL.
Player Comp: Eddie Royal/Sterling Shepard
Dynasty Outlook: The Colts nabbed the former Tar Heel slot standout in the third round of the NFL Draft. Downs should have any problems beating out Isaiah McKenzie for the starting slot position in camp. Another comforting factor towards his 2023 playing time projection is that Shane Steichen oversaw a Philadelphia offense that utilized at least three wide receivers on the field for 73.6% (seventh-highest) of its snaps. The biggest worries for Downs will be the overall passing volume, with the Colts likely to lean on the run and ease in Anthony Richardson versus NFL competition. He could be the second target in the passing attack behind only Michael Pittman. Downs is a late-second-round/early third-round rookie draft pick.
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