The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of Jahmyr Gibbs.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: Jahmyr Gibbs
Stats:
- 2022 (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 45th
- Breakaway rate: 7th
- PFF elusive rating: 35th
- PFF receiving grade: 6th
- Yards per route run: 9th
- 2021 (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 74th
- Breakaway rate: 30th
- PFF elusive rating: 69th
- PFF receiving grade: 2nd
- Yards per route run: 2nd
- 2020 (minimum 20 targets)
- PFF receiving grade: 2nd
- Yards per route run: 1st
- Career
- 93rd percentile collegiate target share
Scouting report:
- Gibbs is a slasher back that has 0 to 60 speed. He wins with foot quickness and raw speed that can string together lightning-fast lateral movements. Gibbs can take any touch to the house with a small crease in the second level.
- He has average contact balance. Gibbs will never be a pile-pushing running back. This could leave his red zone usage more in the form of pass-game targets than two-yard goal-line dives.
- Gibbs has been an elite receiving option out of the backfield for the last three seasons. Since 2020, he’s never ranked lower than ninth in Yards per route run or sixth in PFF receiving grade among running backs (minimum 20 targets). He’s an angle route master that will destroy the soft underbelly of zone coverage. In limited pass pro reps seen on film, Gibbs has the ability to turn into a solid pass protector. His first punch is solid, and he had the leg drive to stand up defenders.
- Gibbs has a high motor. He’s sprinting out in front of his scrambling quarterback to try and set a block or fighting for extra yards at every turn. Coaches will love his energy.
Player Comp: faster D’Andre Swift
Dynasty Outlook: The Detroit Lions apparently agree with my comp. Gibbs replaces Swift in Detroit as the former passing down specialist was shipped off to Philadelphia after the Lions selected Gibbs 12th overall. My post-draft ranking of Gibbs at tenth overall in Superflex drafts might not sit well with everyone, and that’s fine. Frame it however you’d like, but Gibbs is my RB2 of this class now, with Zach Charbonnet getting torpedoed by the Seattle Seahawks. You can make a case to take Gibbs as high as the 1.05 in Superflex drafts, but I prefer the four wide receivers and Dalton Kincaid, that were also selected in round 1 of the NFL Draft. Gibbs should have a productive rookie season, there’s no doubt about that, but David Montgomery will remain a big part of this offense. Last year Jamaal Williams led the NFL in red zone rushing attempts and inside the five-yard line carries. Montgomery should soak up most of this work, but that doesn’t mean Gibbs won’t have a red zone role. Last season Swift ranked second on the team in red zone targets despite missing time and being marginalized some weeks. Gibbs could eclipse that mark in his rookie season.
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