Everyone in the fantasy football world is knee-deep in dynasty rookie drafts. Yet, it’s never too early to prepare for redraft season.
Sometimes rookies end up being league winners. Other times they end up being a waste of a draft pick. Unfortunately, trying to project rookies is easier said than done. However, let’s look at who I think will be the top-scoring rookies for every position.
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- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Predicting the Highest Scoring Rookies Per Position (2023 Fantasy Football)
Quarterback
- 1st – Anthony Richardson (IND)
- 2nd – C.J. Stroud (HOU)
- 3rd – Bryce Young (CAR)
Typically rookie quarterbacks don’t have much fantasy success. However, when we see the exception to the rule, it’s because the rookie has massive rushing upside. That’s why I would bet on Richardson leading all rookie quarterbacks in fantasy scoring this season. New head coach Shane Steichen spent the past two years in Philadelphia, making Jalen Hurts a fantasy superstar.
In his first year as the starter, Hurts was the QB9, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. He had 139 rushing attempts for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns that year. While Richardson won’t put up that same production, the former Gator could end the season in the low-end QB1 range if he starts 15 or more games.
While Richardson is the only rookie quarterback I would consider drafting in 1QB leagues, Stroud and Young are decent mid to low-end QB2s in superflex leagues. Stroud gets the nod over Young because of two reasons. First, the Texans will be in negative game script more often than the Panthers. Second, Stroud has better weapons than Young.
Houston’s receiving core is far from elite. Yet, it’s a good mix of reliable veterans like Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz and upside young players like Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Meanwhile, Young has one proven weapon he can lean on, Adam Thielen. While I have high hopes for Jonathan Mingo, the rookie receiver likely won’t be a factor until the second half of the season.
Running Back
- 1st – Bijan Robinson (ATL)
- 2nd – Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
- 3rd – Roschon Johnson (CHI)
Running back is the easiest position to predict this year. Robinson is already a top-five running back in the NFL before his first career snap. Meanwhile, some in the fantasy community are already naming him the RB1 in redraft leagues. Robinson averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and 4.1 yards after contact.
He also is a big play running back, as nearly 40% of his rushing yards last season came on 15-plus yard runs. More importantly, Atlanta’s offensive line had an 83.7 run-blocking grade in 2022, the highest in the NFL by 6.5 points. Furthermore, the Falcons used their second-round pick on Matthew Bergeron. Robinson will easily outscore every other rookie running back.
Gibbs isn’t the same talent as Robinson, but the Detroit rookie will be a fantasy star. He will have to split the backfield work with David Montgomery. However, that isn’t a problem. Head coach Dan Campbell was part of the New Orleans Saints coaching staff in 2017 when Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara both had top-10 finishes.
Furthermore, Gibbs forced a missed tackle on 43.2% of his receptions last year at Alabama, showing he can make big plays after the catch. More importantly, the Lions lack proven pass catchers outside Amon-Ra St. Brown, meaning Gibbs could finish second on the team in that category as a rookie.
While Johnson was the eighth running back drafted and a fourth-round pick, I have high expectations for the former Longhorn. His role at Texas was limited because of Robinson. However, Johnson was a dangerous runner. Last season he only had 94 rushing attempts. Yet, he had 46 forced missed tackles on those rushing attempts, meaning nearly half of his rush attempts resulted in Johnson making a defender miss. Meanwhile, Chicago earned the fifth-highest run blocking grade by PFF last season (73.1) and used their first-round pick on offensive tackle Darnell Wright. Johnson has already gotten plenty of hype since the NFL Draft. Don’t be surprised if he is starting come Week 1.
Wide Receiver
- 1st – Jordan Addison (MIN)
- 2nd – Rashee Rice (KC)
- 3rd – Zay Flowers (BAL)
Despite being the last first-round wide receiver drafted, Addison should easily have the most fantasy points as a rookie. Unlike the other three first-round wide receivers, the former USC star had a starting role before he showed up for rookie minicamp. While Justin Jefferson is arguably the top wide receiver in the NFL, he no longer has his running mate on the other side.
However, Addison can fill the void left by Thielen. The rookie receiver can play in the slot or outside and is an excellent route runner. Last year he averaged nearly 2.8 yards per route run at USC. With defenses focused on Jefferson, Addison will take advantage of the one-on-one matchups.
Picking Rice to be the second-highest-scoring rookie is certainly sticking my neck out. However, it’s possible. The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, opening up 101 targets from last year’s team. Travis Kelce is the de facto WR1 in Kansas City. But who will be his running mate this year when it was Smith-Schuster in 2022?
Many are excited for Kadarius Toney, but the third-year receiver has missed 44.1% of the games in his career because of injury. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the only wide receiver on the team other than Smith-Schuster with more than 35 targets last season. Rice had 19 touchdowns over the past two years and could quickly become a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes.
Addison had the best immediate landing spot because of a lack of competition for targets. Meanwhile, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Flowers will have a tougher pathway to targets as a rookie. However, Flowers only needs an injury to Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman to take off this season.
Beckham didn’t play last year as he recovered from a torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl, while Bateman missed 11 games last season and has only played in 52.9% of the games in his career because of multiple injuries. More importantly, Flowers produced last year despite awful quarterback production. He had 12 receiving touchdowns, finishing fifth in the country, while the rest of the team had only nine.
Tight End
- 1st – Sam LaPorta (DET)
- 2nd – Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
- 3rd – Michael Mayer (LV)
Detroit traded away T.J. Hockenson last year but still got nine receiving touchdowns from their other tight ends. However, the team knew they had to improve their unit and saw LaPorta had untapped potential. The former Hawkeye had 111 receptions for 1,327 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the past two years despite Iowa’s struggles at the quarterback position.
Furthermore, the rookie can play all over the field. Last season, he lined up in the slot 30.1% of the time and 20.5% out wide. More importantly, St. Brown is the only player clearly ahead of LaPorta in Detroit’s passing game pecking order. That means the rookie could have an Evan Engram-lite rookie season finish.
While Kincaid and Mayer might be the two best in the draft class five years from now, both rookies have competition for targets this season. Kincaid could push LaPorta for the rookie TE1 finish, depending on how much Buffalo uses him as their big slot receiver versus a No. 2 tight end behind Dawson Knox. Still, the rookie won’t see a massive target share with Stefon Diggs healthy.
Meanwhile, Mayer will have to fight for targets behind Davante Adams. The Raiders also have Hunter Renfrow and signed multiple veteran pass catchers this offseason, including Jakobi Meyers and Austin Hooper. While Kincaid and Mayer are my top two rookie dynasty tight ends, fantasy players should avoid drafting both in redraft leagues.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.