Yes, rookie drafts are still in full swing. However, there is never a bad time for a dynasty startup draft. While there are several strategies you can use during startup drafts, finding the best value in every round is critical regardless of which you deploy. So let’s look at the best value in each of the top 17 rounds in a 12-team, 1QB, PPR startup dynasty draft.
ADP Values in Each Round for Startup Dynasty Drafts (2023 Fantasy Football)
Round 1 – Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Unfortunately, Hall’s rookie season was cut short by a torn ACL. However, the star running back was the consensus 1.01 rookie pick a year ago. Furthermore, Hall is a top-three dynasty running back. Last season the former Iowa State star averaged nearly six yards per rushing attempt after Week 1. More importantly, he has a 20% forced missed tackle rate as a rookie. Barring a complication from his knee injury, Hall will be an elite running back in 2023 and beyond.
Round 2 – Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
While Pitts was a fantasy bust last season, I still believe in the star tight end. He was the TE7 as a rookie, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite having only one receiving touchdown. Furthermore, he had 110 targets for over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Last year Pitts struggled because of Marcus Mariota. The star tight end had only a 59.3% catchable target rate. Meanwhile, Mariota completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts over 20 yards last season. Even if Desmond Ridder is only average, it’s a significant upgrade for Pitts.
Round 3 – Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Last year Kupp averaged 18.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite Matthew Stafford and the team’s struggles on offense. Furthermore, the superstar would have been the WR1 if not for a high ankle sprain that cost him half the season. Despite missing eight games with the injury, Kupp still ended the year as the WR24. Meanwhile, the superstar has been the most consistent wide receiver the past two years, scoring 12.7 or more fantasy points in all but one game, removing the matchup where he suffered the ankle injury. Yes, Kupp turns 30 years old next month. Yet, I couldn’t care less. Getting him in the third round is an absolute steal.
Round 4 – J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
While it nearly took 15 months, Dobbins appears 100% healthy from the 2021 preseason knee injury. Over the final four games of the regular season, the star running back averaged 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. Furthermore, he averaged seven yards per rushing attempt and a 15.8% forced missed tackle rate. More importantly, Dobbins put up those numbers despite playing an average of only 15.8 snaps per game during those contests. With another entire offseason to recover from the knee injury, Dobbins should break out this year.
Round 5 – Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Brown is one of my favorite dynasty trade targets this offseason. The star receiver was outstanding to start the 2022 season. Over the first six weeks last year, Brown was the WR6, averaging 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he suffered a foot injury the week before DeAndre Hopkins returned. Then, Brown only played one game with the veteran wide receiver before Kyler Murray tore his ACL. As a result, the 2023 season will be rocky for Brown. However, he has the talent needed to take over as the No. 1 wide receiver in 2024.
Round 6 – Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Last year the veteran was the WR40, averaging 8.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest average since his rookie year. However, Johnson was extremely unlucky in finding the end zone. He averaged 6.7 receiving touchdowns over the first three years of his career, including a career-high eight in 2021. Unfortunately, the veteran receiver didn’t score a single touchdown last season. Yet, Johnson would have been the WR19 in 2022 if he had scored 6.7 receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Steelers didn’t make any significant additions at wide receiver this offseason, meaning Johnson should rebound after his frustrating 2023 season.
Round 7 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
After a limited rookie year, Fields had a productive 2022 season. He averaged 19.7 fantasy points per after averaging 10.6 per contest as a rookie. Furthermore, the Bears took advantage of the quarterback’s rushing ability. Fields had 160 rushing attempts last season, more than doubling his total as a rookie in 2021. More importantly, the star quarterback made plays downfield, making 13 big-time throws on 18 completions of 20 or more yards downfield last season, according to PFF. Fields should have a breakout season in 2023, thanks to the addition of DJ Moore.
Round 8 – Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
Unfortunately, Allen struggled with a hamstring injury last year that cost him seven games. However, the veteran has stayed mostly healthy after injuries plagued the earlier part of his career. Despite turning 31 last month, the star receiver has plenty of gas left in the tank. Allen averaged 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.37 fantasy points per route run in the eight games after returning from the hamstring injury. If Allen and Justin Herbert stay healthy, this duo should provide fantasy players with consistent production for the next few years.
Round 9 – Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
Waller surprisingly got traded to the Giants this offseason. Unfortunately, the star tight end has struggled with injuries the past two years, missing 41.2% of the contests. However, he has been one of the top tight ends over the past four years, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, Waller won’t have much competition for targets in New York. The Giants lack an alpha No. 1 wide receiver on the roster. Last year Saquon Barkley led the team with 76 targets, but Waller should easily surpass that this season. The only thing standing in his way is his health.
Round 10 – Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
After starting his rookie year barely playing on offense, Okonkwo ended the season playing well. The rookie averaged 3.5 receptions on 4.3 targets for 40.5 receiving yards per game over the final six games last season. Furthermore, Okonkwo was the TE8 over those six weeks, averaging 8.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, he finished first in yards after the catch per receptions and yards per route run among tight ends with at least 30 targets last year. The young tight end will be even better as the full-time starter this season.
Round 11 – Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)
Mingo was one of my favorite wide receiver prospects heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. The former Ole Miss star landed in an excellent situation for his long-term fantasy value. Carolina traded away DJ Moore this offseason, leaving the team with a hole at their No. 1 wide receiver spot. While they signed Adam Thielen in free agency, the veteran is only a stop-gap option. Meanwhile, Mingo finished third among rookie wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception last year in college (7.3). While he won’t make much of an impact as a rookie, the former Ole Miss receiver could turn into a low-end WR2 in 2024.
Round 12 – Trey Lance (QB – SF)
While Lance has barely played two years into his NFL career, fantasy players should have hope for the young quarterback. He started two games as a rookie and played the second half of the Week 4 matchup. In those 2.5 games, the rookie averaged 18 fantasy points per contest. However, adjusting that he only played 10 quarters of football instead of 12, Lance would have averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in those three matchups. Yes, he struggled in Week 1 last year, but the quarterback was without George Kittle and was playing in a rainstorm. Whether in San Francisco or elsewhere, Lance will get a chance to prove he’s a franchise quarterback.
Round 13 – Alec Pierce (WR – IND)
Indianapolis spent a third-round pick on Josh Downs this year, but I prefer Pierce over the rookie. The former Bearcat flashed potential last season. While he averaged only 5.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie, poor quarterback production limited Pierce’s upside. However, the rookie shined when given a solid target share. Pierce averaged 11.1 fantasy points per game in the five contests with six or more targets last year. With Michael Pittman Jr. heading into a contract year, Pierce could be the team’s No. 1 wide receiver a year from now.
Round 14 – Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)
Johnson had a breakout 2022 season. He finished third in the league among tight ends with seven receiving touchdowns. The only two tight ends with more touchdowns than the Saints star last year were Travis Kelce and George Kittle. While New Orleans recently signed Foster Moreau, the veteran won’t impact Johnson’s fantasy value. More importantly, Michael Thomas is arguably the most prone wide receiver in the NFL. If Thomas can’t stay healthy, Johnson could be the No. 2 pass catcher this year behind Chris Olave.
Round 15 – Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
While Najee Harris is the featured back in Pittsburgh, Warren is arguably the top handcuff in fantasy football. Last year, he had 77 rushing attempts for 379 yards and a touchdown. While the rookie averaged only five half-point PPR fantasy points per game, Warren was productive with his touches. He averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, 14.3% of the rookie’s rushing attempts went for more than 10 yards. By comparison, Harris had only 7.4% of his rushing attempts go for more than 10 yards last season. As a result, Warren could earn more of a role in 2023.
Round 16 – Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
Houston traded away Brandin Cooks this offseason, leaving the team without a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. However, Dell has a chance to earn that role as a rookie. Last year the former Cougar had 109 for 1,398 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. He finished first or second in the country in all three categories. More importantly, the rookie forced a missed tackle on 17.6% of his receptions last season. Furthermore, it only helps Dell that C.J. Stroud asked the Texans to draft the wide receiver.
Round 17 – Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)
Thielen has seen his fantasy production regress over the past few years. However, the veteran wide receiver has been one of the best at finding the end zone over the past five years, totaling 45 receiving touchdowns in 71 games. Meanwhile, he will be Bryce Young‘s No. 1 wide receiver this season after the Panthers traded away DJ Moore a few months ago. Moore averaged 133.5 targets per season over the past four years, which would be an excellent total for Thielen. Even if he only sees 75% of those targets (100), the veteran wide receiver is still a value in the 17th round.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
