2023 was a year to forget for the consensus 1.01 in last year’s fantasy football drafts. Jonathan Taylor underperformed as the RB30 in 11 games played, averaging 12.6 fantasy points as the RB18 when healthy. JT’s usage was that of a top-eight running back – eighth in expected points per game, fourth in touches per game (20) – but a lack of touchdowns decimated his fantasy stock in the Colts’ anemic offense.
After scoring a combined 33 TDs through his first two seasons, Taylor scored just four rushing TDs in 2022. From an efficiency standpoint, I’d expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor in 2023. He will be healthier in 2023 and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson‘s mobility under center should increase JT’s yards per carry. When Taylor first returned from injury (Weeks 10-13 in the 2022 season) he ranked as the RB3 overall.
He should experience some positive TD regression entering the final year of his rookie deal. Although it should be noted that with Richardson under center, Taylor won’t cannibalize all the goal-line carries. However, a mobile quarterback didn’t stop Shane Steichen’s running back Miles Sanders from scoring 13 TDs in 2022. Considering the wide talent gap and proven production from Taylor compared to Sanders, I’d bet Steichen’s new RB1 will reach double-digit scores even if his rookie QB runs in a few himself.
