It’s official, we made it to week seven. Look at us…who’d of thought, right? Regardless, we’re now about to be seven weeks deep and it’s time to really buckle down and win these matchups. If you followed the weekly planner last week, I highlighted the Diamondbacks and Rangers as my favorite matchups for this current week.
Gabriel Moreno was arguably my favorite player to target this week and he’s followed that up by going .500 thus far with a double, stolen base, and one strikeout. Not bad for a couple of game sample sizes. This week I have my eye on a few guys who should rake in week seven. Including a catcher who has some pretty crazy home/road splits.
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Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner: Pickups & Advice
Here are some matchups to be aware of this week along with players to target and avoid.
Favorable Matchups
Colorado Rockies – vs CIN (3), @ TEX (3)
It’s no secret that the Colorado Rockies play much better at home than on the road. Coors Field is the most beneficial hitters’ park in baseball. And their lineup seems built to dominate there. Highly rostered players like Cj Cron and Kris Bryant have played well so far this year and should have big weeks. Especially against a couple of teams that give up a lot of runs.
First, they’re finishing off their six-game homestand with three games against the Cincinnati Reds. Despite the pitching being arguably the best thing about the Reds, they’re still allowing 5.3 runs per game. Pair that with their .274 batting average against (second worst in the league) and you have the makings of a juicy matchup. Meanwhile, the Rockies are hitting .291 at home and tearing the cover off the ball.
Ending their week with a three-game road stretch against Texas is going to be a much better matchup than many people may think. Sure, the Rangers have been one of the better pitching teams this season, but since April 30th their ERA has jumped to 4.37 while striking out just 65 in 80 innings. They’re scoring a ton of runs, but the weather is heating up in Texas and they’re becoming hittable.
Players To Target
Diaz would be the aforementioned player with the crazy home/road splits. He does well on the road, carrying a .281 batting average, but the power hasn’t been there yet outside of three doubles. At home, though, he’s a man possessed. In 15 games at Coors, he’s hitting .396 with three doubles, three home runs, 10 runs scored, and 13 RBI. Look for him to continue that trend this week.
Elias Diaz is the latest Rockies player to enjoy a huge boost playing at Coors Field. Love to see it.
Diaz at home…
? .398 BA / 1.061 OPS
? 153 wRC+
? 3 doubles / 3 HR / 13 RBI in 15 GAlso has a .452 BA with RISP#Rockies | #FantasyBaseball
— Blake Meyer (@Buhhlockaye) May 8, 2023
Tovar is another guy playing pretty damn well at home. In 16 home games, he’s hitting .268 with six doubles, a triple, a home run, and 10 runs scored. He’s also been heating up a bit as of late. In his last 16 games, he’s hitting .276 with five doubles, a triple, a home run, 12 runs scored, and 12 RBI. 10 of those games came on the road. Run him out there with confidence this week.
San Diego Padres – vs KC (3), vs BOS (3)
The Padres are that team that was absolutely loaded coming into the season that started slow and has since taken off. Now that they have Tatis back in the lineup they’ve become a powerhouse. Guys like Manny Machado and Juan Soto have really found their swing and the offense is scoring a ton of runs.
Their home series against KC should be a cakewalk for hitters. Petco Park may be a very pitcher-friendly park but the Padres still find ways to excel there. With 69 extra-base hits at home already, that should continue when they face the weak pitching of KC. On the road, the Royals have the sixth-worst team ERA (5.04) and a .252 batting average against.
The Red Sox certainly line up to be a tougher matchup than the Royals, but they’re still just as hittable. They have a road ERA of 4.94, batting average against of .272 and one of the worst LOB% in baseball at 67.9%. There is plenty of firepower in this Padres lineup to take advantage of the weak pitching, especially in the run scoring department. I expect this to be a very high-scoring series where you’ll want to fade pitching.
Players To Target
Kim is a very under-the-radar fantasy asset, especially this season. After a sneaky productive 2022 where he hit .251 with 29 doubles and 12 stolen bases, he’s seen a decline in batting average but an uptick everywhere else. He already has five doubles, three home runs, and six stolen bases in just 34 games. Coming off a hot 10-game stretch where he’s hitting .303 with five of those stolen bases, Kim lines up to continue the success next week.
While you’re not going to find him on the waiver wire, this is looking like a prime time to add him to the roster via trade. He got off to a slow start but in his last 10 games, he’s hitting .333 with two doubles, four home runs, 10 runs scored, and 11 RBI. He’s hitting .276 at home this year after hitting .280 at home in 2022. With him hitting just .250 for the year with five home runs, your last chance to buy somewhat low may be right now.
Matchups To Avoid
Seattle Mariners – @ BOS (3), @ ATL (3)
As a Seattle area native and huge Mariners fan, there’s no easy way to say this…the Mariners’ offense kinda sucks. After an impressive season where they broke the playoff curse and hit a ton of home runs, they’ve come back down to earth.
The Red Sox pitching isn’t great at home, their 4.85 team ERA would say so at least, but they strike out nine batters per nine innings and the Mariners have really been that bad. They have a road batting average of .221 and scored the fourth-fewest runs on the road with just 66. Lefties may do well there, like Kelenic and Big Dumper, but righties are going to struggle mightily.
The Braves are just an all-around better team than Boston which bodes even worse for Seattle hitters. Kyle Wright and Max Fried may be headed to long IL stints, but the Braves seem to grow productive prospects on trees. At home, the Braves’ pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and the second highest strikeout rate in the league at 27.8%. It’s going to be a long week for people who’ve rostered Mariners hitters, that’s for sure.
Players To Avoid
I don’t think it’s any secret that Teo has had his fair share of struggles this season. His quality of contact has been good, the 14.3% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate show he’s been crushing the ball. It’s the swing-and-miss nightmare that’s taking over. Now with a sixth percentile whiff rate, 14th percentile whiff rate, and a strikeout rate of 35.1%. He looks lost at the plate and should find his way onto your bench for this coming week.
Over his last 14 games, Teoscar Hernandez is batting .167/.224/.259 while running a K-rate close to 47%, a chase rate at 40%(!) and a whiff rate at 45.5(!).
As Scott Servais alluded to early in the week, that sort of approach is “easy to pitch to”. It hasn’t been competitive.
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) May 10, 2023
I’m not sure if father time has come knocking and zapped Suarez of his power or what, but the one thing that was keeping him fantasy relevant last year is seemingly gone. Suarez now has just three home runs in 160 plate appearances. A lot of issues can be overlooked when you hit 31 home runs like he did in 2022, but when your power is gone and you’re also hitting .221 the fantasy appeal starts to fade. Don’t look for this to be the weak Suarez makes an impact.
Minnesota Twins – @ LAD (3), @ LAA (3)
The easiest way to explain why this is a terrible week for the Twins is the fact that they’re literally the worst-hitting team on the road in baseball. Up to this point, the Twins have a road batting average as a team of just .198 and have scored just 77 runs. Their team wRC+ of 76 and OPS of .634 mean they’re just not getting anything going offensively.
First, they match up with a Dodgers team who is killing it at home. Their home ERA of 2.94 and batting average against of .224 are amongst the best in baseball. Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias have been on fire as of late and it’s hard to imagine the Twins get much of anything going offensively.
The Angels aren’t the Dodgers, sure, but they’re like the brother who looks up to their older sibling so much they’ll do anything to make them proud. The Twins aren’t going to get lucky enough to miss Ohtani either. He currently lines up to pitch again on Friday and the Twins don’t offer much in the way of encouragement.
Players To Avoid
I do love me some Byron Buxton in fantasy baseball, but not this week. The home run hitting speedster who doesn’t steal bases has been equally as bad on the road this year. In fact, he’s been just downright bad in general as of late. He’s hit .186 with just one home run on the road this season. That’s after 2022 in which he hit just .219 on the road. Currently, in the midst of an 0-17 stretch, Buxton is far from a lock to be productive this week. I think it’s safe to bench him, especially in 10-team leagues.
There has been some hype surrounding Joey Gallo as of late and I must admit, I don’t get it. I understand the potential excitement over a guy who could hit 40+ home runs, but Gallo has a long way to go to prove he’s still that guy. Gallo hit his last home run on April 26th, which would be 14 games ago. Since going 1-4 with a home run and two RBI that day, Gallo has hit .086 with just three total hits. His strikeout rate has jumped to 37.2% in that time and it doesn’t feel like he’s seeing the ball better than any other stretch of his career. Much like Buxton, I don’t think this is the week where Gallo gets anything going.
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