It’s crazy to think we’re already headed into week six of the baseball season. I swear it was just December and Carlos Correa had signed his seventh free agent deal. Now here we are more than a week into May and I can’t help but enjoy some of the crazy stat lines being put up so far.
Luis Arraez is hitting over .400, Max Muncy leads all of baseball in home runs after a down 2022, and Ronald Acuna Jr. is stealing bases at a ridiculous pace. On top of it all, the damn Tampa Bay Rays just keep on winning. As of me writing this, they’re currently 20 games over .500 which is absurd for May.
With this weekly planner, my goal is to break down a few of the matchups I both like and dislike for the upcoming week. With that, I’m also going to give you a few players from those games you should keep your eyes on for those matchups. Be sure to check out my weekly waiver wire article on Sunday mornings for a more in-depth breakdown of the players I think you should be targeting moving forward.
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Favorable Schedules
Arizona Diamondbacks: vs MIA (3), vs SFG (4)
This season, the Diamondbacks have been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball, especially offensively. Led by rookie Corbin Carrol, the Diamondbacks have scored the sixth most runs, have the third-lowest strikeout rate, and the fifth-best team batting average. All things you look for when evaluating which lineups can be the most beneficial for players getting extra counting stats.
The Miami Marlins are the ninth-worst team by ERA this season at 4.78 and are one of the worst in terms of home runs allowed at 1.41 per nine innings. They have some pitching that has shown flashes in Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo, but the walks and home runs will come back to haunt them, especially with Sandy Alcantara struggling this season.
The Giants somehow manage to give up slightly more HR/9 than the Marlins at 1.42, which is important because the Diamondbacks have 31 XBH over their last nine games and 50 XBH total at home this season with a home batting average of .283 against a team with a 4.73 road ERA. Their pitching has been ok in theory, but they’re not safe from the powerful Diamondbacks offense.
Players To Target
Ketel Marte (2B/OF – ARI)
I may have been a bit lower on Marte before the season, but the man is on fire right now. In his last five games, he’s hit three home runs, drove in six, and has four walks to just three strikeouts. In 74 career games against the Giants, he’s hitting .294 with 40 XBH and a 12% walk rate. He may not have the same speed that he had years prior, but the power is there and he’s on a hot streak. Look for him to keep it rolling.
Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks (4)
pic.twitter.com/HtoTgYhbeK— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) May 3, 2023
Gabriel Moreno (C – ARI)
After a slow start to the season, Moreno has really started to pick up the pace. In his last 12 games, he’s hitting .342 with a strikeout rate of just 17%. His fantasy value is going to be much more relevant in points leagues, but there is a lot to like here. The Diamondbacks should have no problem getting runners on base ahead of him and his .292 batting average with men in scoring position points towards a guy who will likely end up with a few RBI by week’s end.
Texas Rangers: @ SEA (3), @ OAK
This matchup is partly “you need to be starting guys from teams facing Oakland” and partly “Man the Mariners suck and should also be started against”. Combine that with the fact that Texas has been scorching hot lately and you have some matchups made in heaven.
They’ve scored 191 runs this season, second to only the Tampa Bay Rays. Much of that has been by way of the 43 long balls they’ve hit already. If you take what they’ve done recently into account, their offense has been even more impressive. Since the 16th of April, they’ve scored 116 runs, that’s 15 more than Tampa Bay the second-highest scoring team.
Oakland has been just as bad as you think they have. Their team ERA thus far is 7.45, almost two runs worse than everyone else in baseball. They give up the most home runs, walk the most batters and really struggle to strike hitters out as well. Despite Oakland being one of the least friendly home parks for home runs, the Rangers have too much firepower.
Seattle has been one of the most frustrating teams thus far. Breaking their playoff curse last year, they headed into this season with high hopes and have fallen flat. Everyone knows T-Mobile Park is tough to hit in, but the Rangers have been so good lately they’re damn near ballpark-proof. They’re in line to match up against the back half of the Mariners rotation which should lend them some assistance when it comes to scoring runs.
Players To Target
Josh Jung (3B – TEX)
Speaking of on fire, you’d be hard-pressed to find a player on a hotter hot streak than the rookie third baseman. He’s currently hitting .274 with eight home runs and 24 RBI. Five home runs and 13 RBI of that have come in his last eight starts, including a pair of multi-home run games.
His 32.5% strikeout rate isn’t ideal, but Jung has made up for it this year with excellent contact. His 14.1% barrel rate and 89.5 MPH average exit velocity are both major improvements over his short stint in 2022. With Oakland struggling to strike guys out and Seattle having a history of giving up home runs, Jung should make quite a statement this week.
Robbie Grossman (OF/DH – TEX)
The big theme of this article, if you can’t tell, is riding these hot streaks into next week. For me, I’m riding a hot streak until I’m sure it’s over and Grossman’s is far from that point it seems. Serving as mainly just Texas’ DH, he’s putting up counting stats he hasn’t since 2021.
In his last 12 games, Grossman is hitting .357 with two doubles, two home runs, nine RBI, and a whopping 14 runs scored. The 18% strikeout rate screams points league standout, but the fact that he’s contributing in multiple categories at an above-average level gives him value everywhere. We have yet to see how Corey Seager returning will affect others’ playing time, but for now plan on Grossman to continue his current trend.
Unfavorable Matchups
Detroit Tigers: @ CLE (3), vs SEA (3)
To nobody’s surprise, the Detroit Tigers have been a mess this season. Their 13-17 record proves that. So does the fact that they’re last in the league with just 102 runs scored. This was supposed to be the year of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene and that has yet to be the case.
Facing Cleveland is the last thing they need right no, especially their hitters. The Guardians have recently called up top pitching prospects Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen to pair with ace Shane Bieber and it’s worked out very well. Their team 1.279 WHIP and a low 1 HR/9 means the Tigers are going to be in for a long three games.
Seattle can be just as tough. While Texas is matchup-proof and is likely going to find success against anyone, Detroit is far from good enough to say the same. Outside of the Chris Flexen experiment, Seattle’s pitching has been their strong suit. In fact, their team FIP is 3.42, the lowest in all of baseball. Detroit is going to have a hard time getting anything going.
Players To Avoid
Riley Greene (OF – DET)
The hope that there was for Riley Greene’s breakout coming into this season is starting to dwindle. He’s shown flashes of making good contact but his hard-hit rate has dropped 7% this season, his barrel rate has dropped to 7.8% and his strikeout rate has risen to a terrible 31.5%.
His 30.6% chase rate and 26.7% whiff rate are going to come back to bite him against these strikeout-heavy teams. His contributions in the counting stats categories are already slim with just three home runs and nine RBI. Don’t let his current eight-game hit streak fool you, it ends this week.
Spencer Torkelson (1B – DET)
Surprise, surprise, the second person here is Torkelson. He was all the rage coming into last season where he really fell flat hitting .203 with just eight home runs in 110 games. His power lacked and he found himself never reaching that potential.
Roaring early, thanks to a Spencer Torkelson RBI double ?#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/9Dgk9kN6HI
— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) May 3, 2023
Not a lot has changed in 2023. His home run potential isn’t coming around and while his .252 xBA is higher than last season, he’s managed to get even worse at hitting fastballs. Hitting just .203 off of them isn’t going to cut it, especially not this week.
Los Angeles Angels: vs HOU (3), @ CLE (3)
The Angels have such a good lineup but they do an incredible job of routinely underachieving. Unless your name is Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani, you really aren’t doing anything consistently good this season. They may be a team that scores runs, and the superstars they have make them feel dominant, but against teams like Houston and Cleveland, they’re in line to feel very ordinary.
Houston is….Houston is Houston. They may be down two starters, but Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Hunter Brown are proving to be one of the best pitching trios in baseball. Their team ERA of 3.23 is second best in baseball behind Tampa Bay and they strikeout batters at an impressive clip. The Angels are going to struggle.
Cleveland is going to give the Angels the same fits they’re going to give Detroit. Granted, Los Angeles is much better offensively than Detroit, but it won’t matter. Much like Houston’s big three of pitching, Cleveland has their own and their potential is untapped at this point. Young dominant pitching has been a theme in 2023 and it’s going to continue in this series.
Players To Avoid
Anthony Rendon (3B – LAA)
In his last 11 games, Rendon has really cooled off. He’s hitting just .220 with two doubles and no home runs. He’s scored seven runs and his .347 OBP has been great, but he’s not doing the things you look for when targeting a quality fantasy baseball contributor.
Even when fully healthy and batting in the heart of the order, Rendon has very limited power and speed. He’s barreled up just two balls this season and has a max exit velocity of just 103 MPH. Those put him in the 14th and 12th percentile. Dominant pitching seems to get the best of him more often than not and I think that happens again this week.
Brandon Drury (1B/2B/3B – LAA)
Outside of the series they just played against the Oakland Athletics, Drury hasn’t produced whatsoever this season. He did hit a home run Thursday but it’s only the second one he’s hit this year off a team not from Oakland. The 31-home run hitter he was in 2022 is really starting to feel like an anomaly.
He has a healthy 10% barrel rate and his 47.1% hard-hit rate is in the 78th percentile, but swings and misses are his downfall. He’s in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate, 22nd percentile in whiff rate, and 10th percentile in chase rate. It really feels like he may be rushing at the plate and over-aggressively messing up his plate approach which is hindering his fantasy value. I want Drury to right the ship but I don’t see it happening against the dominant pitching of Cleveland and Houston.
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