Would you look at that, we meet again. If it’s your first time here, welcome to the best fantasy baseball weekly planner you’ll find. If you’re a returning reader then I’m happy you made it back and hope you won your matchup last week! If there’s one thing you’ll gain from this it’s an edge going into the weekend. Sunday’s are usually when FAAB goes through and waivers ramp up for weekly leagues.
What I try and key in on with this article are teams with the most favorable matchups you’ll find and the players who are due to benefit the most from said matchups. Last week I highlighted both Elias Diaz and Ha-Seong Kim who’ve had highly productive weeks to this point.
If you’re looking for more waiver wire targets for the coming week don’t miss out on my weekly waiver wire article every Sunday morning. We’ve done a great job of being weeks early on guys like Jarred Kelenic, Jarren Duran, Brent Rooker, and Ezequiel Duran. Between these two article series, you should already be well on your way to making the playoffs in your league.
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Let’s take a look at the week ahead.
Favorable Matchups
Miami Marlins: @ COL (4), @LAA (3)
First of all, they play seven games this week which is a big advantage in the fantasy baseball world. Second, they play four games at Coors Field and have a couple of absolute monsters on offense. Miami may not be the most intimidating lineup, but sometimes the matchups a team has can overlook that. Especially when that matchup involves four games at Coors Field.
The Colorado Rockies so far have allowed opposing teams to hit .291 with a .360 wOBA at home. They’ve also allowed 27 home runs and 139 runs which trails only Boston and Oakland so far. Their offense does incredibly well at home, but their pitching isn’t up to snuff. Expect plenty of fireworks.
The Angels are a bit different. Their stadium doesn’t offer anywhere near the offensive advantage that Coors Field does. Their pitching, on the other hand, does. Except for Ohtani, that man is just a cheat code built by the baseball gods. In May, the Angels have the third-worst team ERA at 5.39. They’re exploitable, even by a weaker Marlins lineup.
Hitters To Target
Soler has been playing like a man possessed in May. In 14 games he has six home runs and 14 RBI while hitting .275 and murdering baseballs. A 90.5 MPH average exit velocity, 23.7% barrel rate, and an extended trip to Coors Field mean Soler should get into a couple this coming week. He’s been hitting second in the lineup as well which helps maximize his at-bats and the amount I love him in week eight.
Injuries have allowed De La Cruz to garner some more playing time and he hasn’t disappointed. In the month of May he’s hitting .354 with two home runs, seven RBI and he’s lowered his strikeout rate to 25%. One of the knocks on his game has been his strikeout rate, but with it trending in the right direction this starts to make him viable in points leagues as well. De La Cruz may very well hit .400 with three home runs this week.
Seattle Mariners: vs OAK (4), vs PIT (3)
I may not have loved the Mariners in week seven, but I absolutely love them in week eight. From the fact that they also play seven games, to them playing four of those against one of the all-time worst teams in baseball. Any chance you can target a team playing the worst team in the league and follow it up by playing a team that’s cooled off after a hot start, you get a recipe for success.
Against Oakland, Seattle looks to bounce back from their rough series in Boston. In the month of May, they’ve done an excellent job of scoring runs with 71 thus far. They’re also hitting .243 while Oakland’s pitching staff has allowed a batting average against of .279 and 334 runs. Seattle is going to have a field day.
Pittsburgh would have offered much more of a challenge at the beginning of the year, but because of injury and regression, nobody outside of Mitch Keller is very intimidating. They’ve looked much more human against lefties as well. Their 4.70 ERA and .259 batting average against point to Mariners lefties being in for a treat.
Hitters To Target
There’s no denying that Kelenic has slowed down a bit since the hot start he got off to this year, but he’s still been killing it. Especially against righties. He’s currently hitting .268 off of them with 10 doubles and six of his home runs. His 91.4 MPH average exit velocity and 10.7% barrel rate should help Kelenic end the Oakland series with at least two home runs.
With today’s double jumping off the bat at 103.1 MPH, Jarred Kelenic now has
– 25 BBE of 100+ MPH
– 92.4 MPH Average Exit Velo
– 55.3% Hard Hit Rate
– .293 xBA / .587 xSLG
– 10 Doubles / 7 HRInject This Into My Veins.#SeaUsRise | #Mariners
— Blake Meyer (@Buhhlockaye) May 8, 2023
Big Dumper has been killing it lately. The switch-hitting catcher just became the first catcher to hit home runs from both sides of the plate at Fenway Park. He paired that up with four RBI and a boost to his batting average that saw it hit .240 for at least a game. He has much more power against righties, hitting 32 of his 36 career home runs off of them. With Seattle facing six righties, Raleigh may very well have back-to-back very big series.
Matchups To Avoid
Washington Nationals: vs SDP (3), @ KC (3)
Honestly when it comes to lineups, the Nationals may have the least friendly fantasy baseball lineup you’ll find. Outside of Joey Meneses they don’t offer much in terms of valuable fantasy matchup. That’s not going to be changing at all this week.
Facing San Diego for three games is going to be tough. San Diego has really been rounding into form as of late and their pitching is working on turning a corner. Seth Lugo has shown he can be an effective starter, Yu Darvish is pitching at a high level and who knows if the Nationals have the firepower to actually get to the likes of Musgrove or Snell.
The Royals offer a slighly better matchup, but even then, their pitching has still been servicable and the Nationals lineup really is that bad. They have just 47 XBH on the road this season and with Joey Meneses out on Paternity leave they’re now missing a major piece. The Royals are hittable, but can the Nationals really get to them?
Hitters To Avoid:
Abrams is a guy who always seems to have all the hype in the world but hasn’t lived up to it. On the surface, some of his numbers look good this year but they don’t mesh well with the week eight schedule. Abrams does much of his damage at home. The National’s lone playoff series this week comes against the incredibly difficult Padres. On the road is where he’s far weaker and has seemingly lost all his XBH ability. He’s hitting .280 in May so there’s some intrigue there but this is shaping up to be a week where he disappears.
Thomas has turned heads this season with his surprise offensive ability. The issue is, the farther into the season we get the more it seems he may be a beneficiary of good luck. Hitting .281 with five home runs and four stolen bases is great. So is hitting leadoff. But much of Thomas’s appeal has been from the uptick in power which isn’t sustainable. His Baseball Savant page is nothing but blue and doesn’t lend to someone with a ton of upside. Against teams like the Padres he will likely struggle and he has just three XBH on the road compared to nine, meaning that KC series may be void of power. Pass and let him be someone else’s issue.
#Nationals Lane Thomas since May began:
– 10G/40 PA
– 4HR/1SB
– .333/.350/.692
– .438 wOBA
– 176 wRC+
– .359 ISO
– Has led off 5 straight as he shifts back into the leadoff role full time (for now)Red Flag:
Still has notable splits – .669 OPS ,81 wRC+ and a 28.8% K% vs RHP pic.twitter.com/AGF0jvi8wo— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 12, 2023
San Francisco Giants: @ MIN (3), @ MIL (4)
Ok first major issue I have with the Giants in week eight is the fact that they’re spending the entirety of it on the road. Never a good sign. They’re hitting a combined .239 on the road with 37 home runs and injuries to their lineup that bum some of us out…I’m looking at you, Joc Pederson.
Against the Twins, they are lined up to face a murderer’s row of pitchers to start the week. Monday against Bailey Ober, then Sonny Ray and Joe Ryan is going to be no easy ask. They’ve all had breakout and resurgent seasons and are all doing a good job of making opposing hitters look like they still belong in the minor leagues.
Milwaukee may be a slight notch down from Minnesota so far but with the matchup happening at the end of the week as opposed to the front, they’re poised to line up against both Burnes and Peralta. Corbin Burnes has had some issues so far but he’s still arguably a top-three pitcher in baseball, and Peralta is doing everything in his power to remind people that his 2021 season was no joke.
Hitters To Avoid
For as much as I love me some Mitch Haniger, this week just doesn’t offer much in terms of fantasy upside. He doesn’t offer much in the way of speed or batting average, so his value comes from his power. With just two home runs so far that power isn’t there either. He’s hitting just .138 on the road and with tough pitching matchups coming it’s highly unlikely this changes for Mitch this week.
One of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball this year, but don’t let Estrada surprise you when he struggles this week. After a scorching March/April which saw him hit .346 he’s now hitting a much more “normal” .256 in May with just five XBH. He does tend to hit for a slightly higher average on the road but his power doesn’t play the same way. He’s gone just 6-32 in his last seven games and has scored just eight runs in his last 18 despite hitting atop the order. You’ll likely find much better production elsewhere this week.
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