This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Here are waiver wire players to watch and dynasty fantasy baseball advice for this week.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Already with a 20-27 record and 9.5 games out of first place in the National League East, the rebuilding Washington Nationals look like a team that might trade away veterans at the trade deadline.
Of course, if that comes to pass, one of the veterans who’s dealt could be Harvey, who is already Washington’s most effective reliever this season, though not yet the team’s full-time closer.
The 28-year-old has pitched to a 3.00 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in 21 innings so far, adding 24 strikeouts compared to seven walks while registering eight holds. He’s also established himself as one of Dave Martinez’s most trusted high-leverage options, pacing the team with 12 high-leverage outings so far.
Still, Harvey could step into regular ninth-inning work and wider fantasy relevance outside of saves+holds leagues if the Nationals trade current closer Kyle Finnegan. Of course, from a surface-level stats standpoint, Finnegan might own a 5.00 ERA and a 6.13 FIP in 18 innings this season, but he’s sporting a 1.72 ERA and a 3.28 FIP in his last 15.2 innings.
Finnegan also has nine saves so far, more than twice the combined save tally of every other Nationals reliever so far. However, and perhaps most crucially for fantasy managers, Harvey has already siphoned off two ancillary saves as the primary backup option for when Finnegan is unavailable or pitched earlier in the game.
Harvey potentially inheriting the closer’s role post-trade deadline is obviously the long-term play here, but there’s also short-term upside to be had as well if Martinez continues to utilize Finnegan as he has in the last few weeks.
Finnegan has registered a pair of holds in two of his last appearances, entering in key situations earlier in the game.
If that’s the case and he starts to be utilized as Washington’s primary high-leverage reliever ahead of Harvey more often, it could open up even more save chances in the short-term for the former Baltimore Orioles draft pick – still with the potential for more later if the Nats do end up trading Finnegan.
At first glance, Andrew Chafin would appear to be the Arizona Diamondbacks’ closer of choice. The National League West club hasn’t operated with a set closer at times this season, with four relievers splitting 12 saves.
Chafin has six of those saves, and with a 3.57 ERA and a 2.37 FIP – not to mention 26 strikeouts compared to just five walks – in 17.2 innings, he’s turned in a strong season so far. Fantasy managers have certainly bought into it as well, as of writing on Monday, Chafin was rostered in 59% of Yahoo leagues.
Meanwhile, Castro, who has enjoyed a solid season in his own right, was rostered in just 27% of Yahoo leagues.
The 28-year-old has pitched to a 2.61 ERA and a 3.01 FIP in 20.2 innings for the National League West club. He’s struck out 19 batters while handing out seven free passes. He’s accumulated four of Arizona’s 12 saves and also has seven holds on the campaign.
Thanks in part to a sinker that opponents have managed just a .320 xwOBA, as well as a solid slider (35.6% whiff rate) and changeup (33.3% whiff rate) pairing, Castro has limited opposing batters to just a 23.6% hard-hit rate and a 1.8% barrel rate so far.
Perhaps most crucially, as of the beginning of play on Monday, Castro has three of Arizona’s four saves and three of the team’s six high-leverage appearances ninth inning appearances in the last two weeks.
At worst this looks like a timeshare that could pay serious dividends moving forward. The Diamondbacks began Monday with a 27-20 record and a +12 run differential. Even splitting duties with Chafin, Castro could easily see 10-15 more saves from here on out. Furthermore, he might be better positioned for saves in general, considering Chafin is left-handed and might be needed earlier in contests.
If Miguel Castro hasn’t been picked up in your league, now’s the time to add him before more of the fantasy baseball world catches on.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
Much of James Outman‘s breakout season so far looks legitimate in terms of potential future fantasy success. Or, in other words, it’s not a fluke.
The 26-year-old entered play Monday hitting .256 with a .343 on-base percentage, nine home runs and five stolen bases.
That he looks poised to continue contributing both home runs in stolen bases is only part of the picture here. Outman is sporting a strong 12.2% barrel rate that sits in the 77th percentile league-wide. He’s also currently in the 88th percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric.
What is arguably just as crucial is that the rookie looks locked into a regular role for the foreseeable future in the eternally dynamic Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles led the league in runs scored during the 2022 season. After a number of significant offseason departures, some drop-off was expected.
Fast forward to Monday and the Dodgers aren’t leading the league in runs scored.
They are third though.
All that despite losing a host of position player talent in the offseason, from Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to Justin Turner and Joey Gallo – to say nothing of Gavin Lux missing the current season due to injury – the Dodgers remain one of baseball’s most productive lineups.
Of course, that’s in part due to players like Outman and Miguel Vargas making a significant impact early in their respective Major League careers, but it’s hard to discount the fantasy value of being a regular in the Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles is not only scoring runs at an elite rate this season but – perhaps unsurprisingly – they’re also accumulating a ton of plate appearances with runners in scoring position as a team.
The National League West club entered play Monday with the fourth-most plate appearances with runners in scoring position in baseball.
It’s a perfect situation, fantasy-wise, for members of the Dodgers lineup who get to share a lineup with the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy on a daily basis.
That’s especially true for a player like Outman with some quality underlying metrics.
In addition to the strong barrel rate and sprint speed metrics, the rookie has added a .431 xwOBAcon this season while logging a 9.6% walk rate and a 24% chase rate.
Admittedly, strikeouts look like they might continue to be part of his game. The outfielder struck out 29% of the time in 307 plate appearances at Double-A in 2022, followed by a 25% strikeout rate in 252 plate appearances at Triple-A last season. He’s struck out 33.1% of the time so far in 2023.
Still, he brings more than enough to the table elsewhere – most notably making loud contact when he does connect on pitches – to be an impact fantasy player in arguably the league’s most fantasy-friendly environment in Los Angeles.
He’s already an impact fantasy player as a rookie. Moving forward, the sky is the limit fantasy-wise.
There’s the ceiling of a top-10 overall fantasy player here sometime in the next handful of years. Now’s the time to acquire him in dynasty formats and watch the counting stats pile up.
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