This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
Week 5 Waiver Wire Players to Watch
In years past, it has been James Karinchak as the next reliever in line for save chances after Emmanuel Clase in Cleveland.
Last season, it was Karinchak and Trevor Stephan who soaked up most of the ancillary save chances. The duo split six saves evenly and were the only relievers not named Clase to log multiple saves.
Now, they may have both been jumped in the ancillary saves hierarchy by Eli Morgan.
Of course, Stephan and Karinchak are both still on the team and pitching in high-leverage roles. But while the former has been reasonably effective this season with a 1.46 ERA and a 4.17 FIP in 12.1 innings, the latter has struggled mightily. So far, Karinchak has pitched to a 5.79 ERA and a 6.22 FIP In 12.1 innings.
It is worth noting that Stephan has one of two Cleveland saves that don’t belong to Clase this season. However, Morgan has the other. And based on his effectiveness and usage, he looks like the reliever to add in case Clase deals with injury or ineffectiveness – or if the Cleveland closer has simply pitched too many days in a row and there’s a chance for a save.
The 26-year-old has been excellent so far, logging 12.2 scoreless innings and a 1.73 FIP for Terry Francona’s club while striking out 15 batters compared to just three walks allowed.
His four-seamer won’t overpower hitters, with an average velocity of just 92.1 MPH, but it features a decent amount of vertical movement and doesn’t get hit all that hard, either. Opposing batters are hitting .300 against the pitch but have managed just a .323 wOBA and a .316 xwOBA.
But it’s the right-hander’s other two primary offerings that help him find success.
Morgan’s changeup and slider are both sporting whiff rates north of 33%, with xwOBA numbers south of the .270 mark.
- Eli Morgan’s Changeup In 2023: 30.2% usage rate, 33.3% whiff rate, .268 xwOBA, .332 xSLG, .227 xBA
- Eli Morgan’s Slider In 2023: 22.2% usage rate, 41.7% whiff rate, .216 xwOBA, .256 xSLG, .230 xBA
What’s more, he’s also been Cleveland’s third-most utilized reliever in high-leverage spots in the eighth inning or later after Karinchak and Clase – though, based on early results, it’s fair to wonder if Karinchak will continue to see those types of late-inning opportunities in the short term.
That Morgan has as many high-leverage, ninth-inning appearances as Karinichak so far – both have two -would also seem to bode well for his ancillary save chances moving forward.
Clase is still undoubtedly the favorite for saves for the Guardians, but Morgan is establishing himself as one of the league’s (and fantasy’s) best backup closers, if you will. He can help fantasy managers with categories like ERA and WHIP now while adding an ancillary save here and there, but his fantasy ceiling would be immense if he were needed to step into regular ninth-inning work.
There’s a chance that someone in your league dropped Taj Bradley, whom the Rays optioned to Triple-A last week.
If someone in your league did, in fact, drop Bradley, now’s the time to add him because everything about his potential and ability screams “impact fantasy starter,” and he did little to quell those notions in his first three turns in the Major League rotation.
The rookie thrived in his first three starts in the Majors, pitching to a 3.52 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, and 23 strikeouts in 15.1 innings. What’s more, he only surrendered two walks and two home runs during that span. In his three starts, the top prospect posted respective CSW rates of 35%, 32%, and 23%. Perhaps unsurprisingly, with those metrics on a strong Rays club, he came away with the pitcher win in all three of his starts.
Speaking of turns in the Major League rotation, one of the primary reasons the Rays reportedly optioned Bradley to Triple-A was to get him used to pitching every fifth day instead of every sixth day, per an article from The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin on Saturday. Topkin wrote the following about the team’s decision to send the starter to the minors:
“Principally, that means transitioning him from the six-day starting schedule he mostly has been on in the minor leagues to the once-every-five-day routine that is common in the majors.”
It’s not entirely that. Topkin also wrote in his article that in Triple-A, Bradley will work “to further refine his curveball and change-up” and “find ways to maintain his velocity.”
Still, this doesn’t seem like an assignment that’ll keep the former fifth-round pick in the minors too long.
In closing, Topkin wrote:
“If Bradley transitions well to the five-day routine, and in at least in one outing pushes his career-high workload past 91 pitches, he will be back in the mix the next time they need a starter. The Rays hope the decision can be merit based. And maybe then, Bradley can stick around.”
Simply put, Bradley will have league-winning upside once he returns to the Majors. Even in leagues with short benches, he’s worth the wait to stash until he returns to the Majors. Plus, depending on your league size, there’s a chance the right-hander is your best pitcher come fantasy playoffs. He’s that good with that kind of ceiling.
Run, don’t walk, to add Taj Bradley if he was released in your league.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
Sticking with the Tampa Bay Rays, outfielder Josh Lowe – like Bradley – is in the midst of a breakout campaign.
Lowe entered play Monday hitting .342 with a .397 on-base percentage in 78 plate appearances. Perhaps most crucially, he’s cut down his strikeouts considerably. After striking out 33.3% of the time in 198 plate appearances in 2022, Lowe’s strikeout rate is down to 19.2%, with his whiff rate falling from 32.6% to 27.5%.
As it happens, Lowe is actually chasing more pitches outside the zone this year. His chase rate has jumped from 25.4% to 32.4%. That also comes with nearly identical chase contact rate metrics in the past two years at 57.0% and 56.4%, respectively.
Still, the outfielder has made up for that in part by connecting on more pitches in the zone, seeing his zone contact rate rise from 71% to where it currently sits at 78.8%.
The increase in contact has certainly helped the 25-year-old log a rather high batting average, not to mention a similarly high xBA (.286) that sits in the 85th percentile league-wide.
Lowe is also getting the barrel of the bat on the ball much more. His barrel rate has skyrocketed from 5.2% last year to 11.9% so far. In fact, he already has more barrels (seven in 59 batted ball events) than he did last year (six in 116 batted ball events) in nearly half as many batted ball events.
Those barrels have helped Lowe bring some quality production in the power department despite only a 35.6% hard-hit rate. It’s the power potential, as well as the stolen base upside, that made Lowe such an intriguing prospect.
And now he’s making good on both, with five home runs so far to go along with the .342 average and 1.030 OPS, not to mention five stolen bases and an 88th percentile ranking in Statcast’s sprint speed metric.
Looking both short and long-term, Jose Siri‘s return from the injured list has cut into Lowe’s playing time a bit. With the Rays’ propensity for platoons and trading away Major League players, if this is making the manager in your league with Lowe on their roster start to get cold feet, now’s the time to make an offer.
The 25-year-old outfielder is finally starting to make good on his potential in the Majors, and if he keeps this up, it’s going to be hard for Tampa Bay to keep him out of the lineup moving forward – both short and long-term.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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