This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
Week 7 Waiver Wire Players to Watch
The back end of the Cubs’ bullpen is decidedly in flux. The team has just five saves on the season. Brad Boxberger (2) is the only reliever with multiple saves despite allowing nine hits, eight earned runs, five walks and three home runs in his last 7 1/3 innings.
Per a tweet from the team’s official Twitter account on Monday, Boxberger has now been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a “right forearm strain.” The move was made retroactive to Sunday. As to whether someone steps into the full-time closer’s role outright or replaces Boxberger in the ninth-inning committee remains to be seen, but Chicago certainly isn’t short on options.
Michael Fulmer, who looked like the preferred ninth-inning option early in the season, owns a 6.75 ERA and a decidedly more appealing 3.53 FIP in 17 1/3 innings this season. While he’s missed plenty of bats, he’s also struggled at times. The former Tiger allowed nine earned runs in his first 9 1/3 innings, good for an 8.68 ERA. He followed that up with five straight scoreless innings but has given up four runs in his last three innings of work.
There’s also Keegan Thompson, who is sporting a 2.95 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 21 1/3 innings this year. He has functioned as Chicago’s most utilized high-leverage reliever with six high-leverage outings so far.
Nick Burdi was called up from Triple-A as part of the series of transactions on Monday. He has collected four saves at Triple-A club this season.
That’s all without mentioning Mark Leiter Jr., who is striking out 36.8 percent of the batters he’s faced so far in 17 innings. He has one of the team’s five saves this season to go with a minuscule 1.06 ERA (2.71 FIP) and the second-highest fWAR (0.4) among relievers on the team. However, Alzolay is still the name to stash now.
Alzolay, like Leiter, has one of Chicago’s five saves this year. He’s also sporting a quality fWAR of 0.5 that actually leads all Cubs’ relievers. While the 28-year-old righty isn’t quite missing bats at the rate his teammate is, he’s still logging quality bat-missing metrics.
Mark Leiter Jr. vs Adbert Alzolay In 2023:
- Leiter: 35.3% K%, 39.3% whiff rate, 15.7% swinging strike percentage
- Alzolay: 25 K%, 23.4% whiff rate, 11.4% swinging strike percentage
The biggest factor that may play into Alzolay’s favor in terms of ninth-inning work is his ability to limit both quality contact and walks. He has given up just one barrel this season while limiting opposing batters to a 30.2 HardHit%, .249 xwOBA and .307 xwOBAcon. He’s also surrendered just four walks so far.
Overall, Alzolay owns a 2.18 ERA (2.67 FIP) in 15 appearances spanning 20.2 innings this season. He’s struck out 19 batters compared to the four walks and has added five holds. Speaking of which, it’s also worth mentioning that Alzolay does have Chicago’s most recent save, coming on May 6 against the Marlins.
The Cubs, despite having a 19-21 record and a +29 run differential, have the third-fewest saves in the league so far. As long as their record continues to hover around the .500 mark, the save totals will likely go up. Even if this is somewhat of a committee moving forward, Alzolay might be the best and most effective option in the ninth inning.
The Orioles aren’t short on quality prospects near the Majors that could make an impact. There’s Jordan Westburg and DL Hall. Connor Norby is close too, but Cowser is worth a look, especially considering Baltimore’s potential lack of outfield depth.
With Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins entrenched in left and center respectively, the O’s have given Anthony Santander the majority of the innings in right field. Though, it isn’t necessarily a situation where he’s the primary right fielder. The 28-year-old slugger has 21 appearances in right field, but he has also logged 15 appearances as the team’s DH as well as an one appearance at both first base and left field.
Santander hasn’t necessarily struggled in right field this year. He’s logged a +2 OAA and a +1 DRS at the position. Still, if Baltimore continues to move him around the diamond and utilize other players more often in right field, the team could do with reinforcements at the position.
The Orioles have also used Ryan McKenna, Terrin Vavra and Kyle Stowers – all of whom have at least 40 innings at the position – at times in right field. Vavra and Stowers have both struggled mightily. While McKenna’s surface level numbers look promising in a small sample size, they’re likely propped up by a .423 BABIP, which is all without mentioning a potentially unsustainable wOBA (.350) given the vast chasm between it and McKenna’s .262 xwOBA.
Baltimore’s Right Field Options Not Named Anthony Santander
- Vavra: 32 PA, .231 average, .333 on-base percentage, .288 xwOBA, 69 wRC+
- Stowers: 33 PA, .067 average, .152 on-base percentage, .223 xwOBA, -37 wRC+
- McKenna: 43 PA, .308 average, .349 on-base percentage, .262 xwOBA, 124 wRC+
Ultimately, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. While Baltimore’s outfield in general has the league’s ninth-best collective wRC+ (111), it’s a decidedly top-heavy group. Or rather, there isn’t an obvious choice on the Major League roster to step in if Santander, Hays or Mullins deals with ineffectiveness or injury. That is where Cowser could become a factor either as an injury replacement or as a potential spark.
Statistically, it might be hard to keep Cowser in the minors. He has produced a .336 average, seven home runs, five stolen bases and a 168 wRC+ in 174 Triple-A plate appearances. He also has nearly as many walks (35) as strikeouts (38).
When highlighting Cowser in the publication’s write-up of the top Orioles prospects on February 3, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote the following about the outfielder after noting his increase in strikeouts in the minors:
“His bat is still quick, and Cowser is capable of punishing pitches to all fields provided he can actually get the bat head to them. He’s still able to do this in the very middle and middle-away portion of the strike zone, but not usually on the inner third of the plate. Cowser’s contact quality is terrific when he makes it. His hard-hit and barrel rates are about the average among starting big league center fielders, it’s just that suddenly his contact rates are not.”
With the ability to get on base at a strong clip – Cowser has never logged a single-digit walk rate in his minor league career – not to mention the potential to contribute both home runs and stolen bases, he would be a priority waiver wire addition in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring and there are 12 or more teams if there was an injury ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
On the surface, Gausman’s metrics this year are fairly similar to those that he posted during the 2022 campaign. Granted, we’re still in mid-May, but the veteran is sporting nearly identical ERA and FIP numbers, not to mention walks and home runs allowed per nine innings.
- 2022: 174.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 10.56 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9
- 2023: 48 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 12.56 K/9, 1.31 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9
It’s possible the fantasy manager in your league might be concerned by a pair of Gausman’s starts this season. The veteran was tagged for eight runs, seven hits, seven earned runs, two walks and two home runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work against the Houston Astros on April 14. Fast forward to May 4, he gave up 10 hits, eight earned runs, a home run and a walk in 3 1/3 innings in Boston against the Red Sox.
The two starts were tied for the second-most and most runs, respectively, that Gausman has surrendered as a Major League. Since his career renaissance with the San Francisco Giants during the 2020 campaign, Gausman has only allowed more than six earned runs in one other start.
In short, these may have just been aberrations. Outliers. Blips on the radar.
Because despite those outings, Gausman has been as good as ever. He’s given up just three earned runs in his other 40 innings pitched this season, and all three of them came in an eight-inning outing against the Detroit Tigers on April 12 when he struck out 11 batters.
Gausman’s stuff has largely held up as well. In fact, based on his Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ metrics, he looks to be that much better in 2023, something that certainly isn’t a surprise with his increased strikeouts per nine innings.
Kevin Gausman In The Last Three Seasons:
- 2021: 192 IP, 109 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 107 Pitching+
- 2022: 174.2 IP, 109 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 109 Pitching+
- 2023: 48 IP, 117 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 109 Pitching+
*Pitching Data via FanGraphs
For reference, Gausman is one of only seven qualified starters this year to rank in the top 10 in all three of those metrics, joining Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Drew Rasmussen, Dustin May, Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahan.
Gausman doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon and looks poised to continue as a top-five or top-10 fantasy starting pitcher moving forward. Both in this season and in the future, especially if his stuff continues to play at this kind of level.
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