This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Week 6 Waiver Wire Players to Watch
Similar to Taj Bradley in last week’s column, Walker absolutely merits picking up in redraft formats if he was released in your league following the Cardinals’ decision to option him to Triple-A. The 21-year-old’s underlying data from his first taste of the Majors was decidedly hit and miss, but there’s plenty to be encouraged by here in terms of his fantasy upside.
First and foremost, to put it plainly, Walker hit the ball hard, with a 47.2-percent hard-hit rate and a 113.9 MPH max exit velocity in his first 78 Major League plate appearances. There was also a reasonably solid 7.5-percent barrel rate, as well as a .262 xBA. Elsewhere, the outfielder contributed right away in terms of both home runs and stolen bases, with a pair of each in the aforementioned 78 plate appearances. In regards to the stolen bases – and Walker’s potential for more in the future – he checks in in the 87th percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric.
Those were all positives. So, too, was his eligibility at both third base and in the outfield in Yahoo leagues. The not-so-positive developments were that Walker logged unideal swing-and-miss metrics like a 36-percent chase rate and a 30.9-percent whiff rate. He also walked just 3.8 percent of the time.
Still, we’re dealing with an incredibly small sample size here. Walker remains one of the higher-upside fantasy prospects in the sport due to the potential to contribute home runs and stolen bases at an above-average rate. He logged 19 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 536 plate appearances at Double-A last year and has the following present game power and speed grades of 55 and 50, respectively, per FanGraphs.
While the swing-and-miss numbers weren’t great, Walker should have no trouble making a fantasy impact if the Cardinals give him regular plate appearances at the Major-League level. Despite being recently optioned to Triple-A, those regular plate appearances could very well come later this summer. Of course, that’s all entirely speculative, but if St. Louis – a team that entered play Monday with an 11-24 record and eight losses in their last 10 games – decides to trade veteran outfielders Tyler O’Neill and or Dylan Carlson this summer, it would open up the Major League plate appearances for Walker to breakout fantasy-wise.
If that ends up being the case, Walker has the potential to be a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch. Add him now before the Cardinals make any trades.
McLain isn’t the only top infield prospect the Reds have stationed at Triple-A – Elly De La Cruz is there as well – but it’s getting to the point with McLain where he might not have anything left to prove in the minors. The 23-year-old, who started the season ranked as Cincinnati’s seventh-best prospect per FanGraphs, is batting .333 with a .448 on-base percentage, nine home runs and eight stolen bases in 143 plate appearances for Louisville.
The ability to make an impact with both home runs and stolen bases is certainly nothing new for McLain. Per FanGraphs‘ write-up of the Reds’ top prospects in mid-January, he has the following current and future grades for raw power, game power and running:
- Raw power: 45/50
- Game Power: 45/50
- Run: 60/60
Eric Longenhagen wrote the following about the infielder in the same article, breaking down McLain’s power upside but also noting the infielder’s “vulnerability to fastballs up around his hands”:
“His underlying contact quality and batted ball data suggests that the power output is for real (a 31% ground ball rate, a barrel rate already above what is typical for a starting big league shortstop), but so is McLain’s vulnerability to fastballs up around his hands, which he struggles badly to get on top of. Other than a subtle change to the position his hands load from, there hasn’t been a noticeable swing overhaul or anything like that here, but there’s a significant enough signal in the data to alter the way we think about McLain’s skill set. He doesn’t have huge raw power, but he’s going to get to the power he does have in games via the lift in swing and a selective approach that prioritizes damage.”
While McLain’s weakness against said fastballs near his hands is certainly worth watching, his power and speed potential in what is one of the league’s two most hitter-friendly ballparks is too hard to ignore fantasy-wise.
Elsewhere, Cincinnati isn’t overflowing with long-term infield solutions that are blocking the former first-round pick’s path to the majors. Of course, that’s entirely speculative, but Kevin Newman has posted a 44 wRC+ in 84 plate appearances so far this season. While Nick Senzel has provided decent production (a 95 wRC+ and three home runs in 85 plate appearances), he can also play the outfield if needed.
It feels like it’s only a matter of time before McLain is up with the Reds. When that happens, he’ll be a quality source of home runs and stolen bases.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
Machado is certainly more of a trade option than a dynasty addition, but he’s someone to consider targeting, especially if the manager in your league with Machado is at all worried about him having a down year or suddenly being incapable of reaching his past career norms.
Machado has hit at least 30 home runs in seven of his last eight seasons and has logged a wRC+ of 130 or better in five of those seasons. Yet, his numbers are decidedly down to begin the 2023 season. The veteran entered play Monday hitting .252 with a .303 on-base percentage, four home runs and a pair of stolen bases in 142 plate appearances.
It’s been a bit of a slow start for Machado, but that might actually be all it is: a slow start. Or rather, it was a slow start.
Since April 18, Machado is batting .267 with a .333 on-base percentage, three home runs and a stolen base. Most crucially, his underlying metrics in that span are right in line with his career metrics and his most recent full seasons.
- Machado Since April 18: 9.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 8.7% barrel rate, 45.7% hard-hit rate, .200 ISO, .348 wOBA
- Career Stats: 8.4 BB%, 22.1 K%, 9.9% barrel rate, 46% hard-hit rate, .209 ISO, .358 wOBA
- 2022: 9.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, 9.8% barrel rate, 49% hard-hit rate, .234 ISO, .382 wOBA
- 2021: 9.8 BB%, 15.9 K%, 13.3% barrel rate, 52.2% hard-hit rate, .211 ISO, .350 wOBA
- 2019: 9.8 BB%, 19.4 K%, 8.0 barrel rate, 43.7% hard-hit rate, .206 ISO, .335 wOBA
Machado will be just fine moving forward, both this season and in future seasons. Plus, he’s now hitting behind Fernando Tatis Jr. again, with Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts filling out the rest of the top four in San Diego’s lineup. It’s arguably the most fantasy-friendly top half of a lineup in baseball. Machado gets to hit second or third in it on a regular basis. That should help him log elite RBI and run-scored metrics.
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