Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
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Fantasy Baseball Players to Buy & Sell
Here’s are players to trade now.
Buy Low
Torkelson has started off the season slow, slashing .231/.285/.350 with three home runs and a stolen base. However, the underlying numbers are much better. His xBA is .275 and he is hitting the ball hard, in the air, and pulling it. The Tigers seem committed to giving the top prospect time to work things out and as the weather continues to warm up, I expect he will get more balls over the fence and do it with a decent average. You can grab him for next to nothing and he is even on the waiver wire in some leagues.
Teoscar has struggled at the plate this season, striking out 34% of the time and hitting .229. However, his xBA is .249 and all the power metrics are exceeding his eight homer output. He is getting unlucky on balls in play and I think the average will tick up and the power will continue to grow as the season goes on.
Cortes has thrown 42.1 innings with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season, which has been extremely disappointing. However, it is really just two really bad starts and his xERA is 3.90. He has been getting unlucky in the BABIP department and the strand rate. He won’t put up a sub 3 ERA again, but he is much better than the surface numbers show.
Alcantara is a really good example of why it is important to watch the games as opposed to just looking at the stats. Alcanatara’s stats are not what you expect from the ace, but he has gotten unlucky and let down by his defense and usage. For example, Alcantara was pitching well in his last start versus the Reds and the Marlins let him try and pitch the eighth when they should have pulled up after seven strong innings since they had the lead. He would go on to give up three more runs in the eighth which made his line look bad. Alcantara is still an ace, but the numbers are mediocre enough you can get him on a discount.
Sell High
Casey Schmitt has come up and raked in his Major League debut, slashing .458/.458/.833 with two home runs in his first week as a Major Leaguer. While Schmitt is a fantastic defensive player that can keep full-time at-bats moving forward, the bat isn’t as strong as his first week would indicate. He has a history of hitting the ball on the ground a ton which inflates his hard-hit percentage and exit velocities. The low launch angle prevents him from turning the hard hits into home runs. With how excited some are getting about Schmitt, this might be the best time to cash in those shares before he cools down.
Whit Merrifield has started the year out great, hitting .281 with a home run and 12 stolen bases this season. However, I am worried he is a shell of his former self. His xBA is .245 and he is just getting lucky on balls in play. He has yet to get near the top of the lineup and while he has run this year, if the on-base slips, as it seems like it is starting too, the stolen bases will as well. Sell now before it becomes more obvious that he is on the downturn.
Sandoval has pitched 44.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA and has been pretty effective for fantasy. However, he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball with a 4.45 xERA because he is getting really lucky in the BABIP department. I would expect some pretty strong regression being around the corner and I am happy to sell before it arrives.
Alex Cobb has been fantastic this season, throwing 47.2 innings of a 1.70 ERA. However, he is getting really lucky as his xERA is actually 3.61. He relies on his defense to get him out of jams, but the Giants aren’t a very good defensive team. It is only a matter of time before that catches up with him in the way it has hurt teammate Logan Webb this season. Cobb is also not known for his health which means he could easily miss time as he usually does. Right now is the time to move him.
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