Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try to buy low and sell high on after the first month of the season.
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Here are players to consider trading this week.
Buy Low
George Springer (OF, DH – TOR)
George Springer has struggled this season, hitting .210/.273/.304 with four home runs and five stolen bases. However, he has been getting really unlucky with a .229 BABIP, and his xSLG is .441. Add in the fact that he is making the best zone contact of his career, and he is running at the highest pace of his career, and he could have a massive fantasy output the rest of the way.
Josh Naylor (1B, OF, DH – CLE)
Josh Naylor has started the season slowly, hitting .202/.256/.321 with three home runs and two stolen bases. Despite the bad start, his xBA is .274, and he is striking out under 20% of the time. He is hitting the ball hard enough, but just not pulling the ball a ton. He is making good contact in the zone as well. I think Naylor will turn it around here and now is a nice cheap buy low.
Zack Wheeler has thrown 38 innings this season, allowing a 4.26 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. Wheeler hasn’t been dreadful, but he hasn’t produced the ace numbers we are looking for. However, the underlying numbers are fine. He has a 2.47 FIP and a 3.58 xERA. He is getting really unlucky on balls in play and strand rate. His home run rate and contact rates are the best of his career. If someone is selling Wheeler, I am buying.
Johan Oviedo was a deep sleeper coming into the season, and unfortunately, the results have put your teams to sleep if you drafted him. However, the underlying numbers are much better than the surface ones. He has a 3.30 xERA, a decent walk rate, a great home run rate and is doing a good job at preventing hard contact. He might be available on your wire right now or very cheap in a trade. The Pirates don’t have many other options, so they shouldn’t move on from him quickly. You have got a chance to grab him for nothing.
Sell High
Riley Greene has started off the year well, hitting .262 with three home runs and two stolen bases. He has been hot over the last two weeks, hitting .320 in that time. However, he is striking out at a 31.7% rate on the season, and despite the hot streak, he is still striking out 26% of the time over the last two weeks. His ground ball rate is about 60%, and he is just getting lucky on balls in play. It’s time to sell while he is hot.
Tommy Edman has started off the year in a mediocre way, hitting .248/.322/.448 with five home runs and three stolen bases. Considering his original draft price, it is well enough that he can still get sold for a decent price. However, he is hitting ninth against right-handed pitchers and struggling against them on top of that. This limits his stolen base upside with the top of the lineup following him. If I could get close to draft day value for him right now, I would.
Shane Bieber is pitching well to start the season, throwing 45.2 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. However, the strikeout rate is suddenly down to 16.6%, and he is allowing more contact than he ever has. He is getting lucky in the BABIP department and his home run rate. I worry that he is riding a very risky line here, and it could end poorly for him.
Bryce Elder has been fantastic this season, throwing 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. However, his xERA is 4.35, and he allows a ton of contact. While a lot of it is on the ground, I worry that as things heat up, he will get burned pretty hard. So far, Elder is getting really lucky. Regression will come back to haunt him here at some point.
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