Spencer Strider, Clayton Kershaw, and Domingo German seem like an odd trio to tie together, but they have one thing in common. They are each among the 10 best pitchers in chase, contact, swinging strike, and CSW rate.

O-swing%, or chase rate, is how much a pitcher gets a batter to swing and miss at pitches outside of the strike zone. It also doubles as a hitting statistic that measures how often a hitter is swinging and missing at pitches outside of the strike zone.

Contact% is how much contact a pitcher allows off all pitches thrown.

SwStr% measures the percentage of pitches with which a pitcher induces a swinging strike.

CSW% is a statistic that measures called strikes plus swinging strikes. It can help paint a better picture of a pitcher’s ability to induce strikeouts.

Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: O-swing%

Spencer Strider (SP – ATL): 37.6% O-swing

Strider has the ninth-best chase rate in baseball. It is a major reason why he was among the best pitchers in K/9 rate last season and is the K/9 leader this season. His ability to induce swings and misses outside of the zone also explains his 2.70 ERA, which is 17th best in baseball.

Strider does this with a combination of a fastball, slider, and changeup, but he throws his changeup exclusively to left-handed batters and has only thrown it 34 times overall this season. It has yet to be hit.

Strider’s fastball and slider have been incredible this season. They have a .188 and .137 batting average against (.209 and .167 xBA) respectively. His ability to induce swings and misses on those pitches are the main reason why he has a league-leading 63.9-percent contact rate. He also leads qualified pitchers with a 19.1 SwStr% and a 36.1 CSW%. His fastball, slider, and changeup have a 30.4, 51.7, and 66.7 Whiff% respectively.

Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD); 39.1% O-Swing

Kershaw has the third-highest chase rate among qualified pitchers. Similar to Strider, Kershaw is among the best in the game at inducing strikeouts. His 10.13 K/9 rate ranks 16th in baseball. He mostly uses a fastball, slider, and curveball combination while also deploying a changeup and sinker less frequently. His best pitch is his slider, which he throws more than any other – a trend he began in 2021 when he began to decrease his fastball usage.

Kershaw’s slider has a .127 BAA (.207 xBA), 36.0 Whiff%, and 25-percent putaway rate. What makes his slider so good at inducing strikeouts is his command of it. He is among the top third of pitchers at locating his slider according to Stuff+, which allows him to deceive batters and get them to swing outside of the zone.

Kershaw’s 71.2 Contact% is eighth best in baseball. His 15.1 SwStr% ranks fifth best, and his 32.3 CSW% is also fifth best. A major reason for this is another elite breaking pitch in his curveball.

Kershaw’s curveball has a 41.7 Whiff% and a 26.2-percent putaway rate. His location of the hook is in the top half of pitchers that throw curveballs according to Stuff+. Kershaw continues to dominate even in his age-35 season with a 2.53 ERA.

Domingo German (SP – NYY): 38.8% O-Swing

Perhaps the odd-man-out of these three hurlers, German has the fifth-best chase rate among qualified starters in baseball. Yet, his ability to induce swings-and-misses have not translated to a lowered ERA this season – at least not yet. He has a 4.35 ERA compared to a much more palatable 3.83 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA.

German’s issue has been the long ball. He has a 1.60 HR/9 – 16th worst in baseball – as well as the 11th-highest HR/FB rate. He should experience positive regression going forward which explains the lower xFIP and SIERA.

What have not been issues for German are his breaking and offspeed pitches. His curveball, changeup, and sinker have a .143, .115, and .154 BAA respectively. In addition, the pitches have 38.5, 36.5, and 22.2 Whiff% as well as 33, 23.5, and 27.3-percent putaway rates. His fastball has been his worst pitch and the culprit of four of the seven home runs that German has allowed.

These breaking and offspeed balls have a lot to do with why German ranks third in SwStr% and fourth in CSW%. With some better luck over the rest of the season, he could be a top pitcher this year. He is an excellent buy-low target.

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