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Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: LaMonte Wade Jr., Adley Rutschman, Alex Bregman

Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: LaMonte Wade Jr., Adley Rutschman, Alex Bregman

Only 10 qualified hitters have a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. Those players are Luis Arraez, Jeff McNeil, Alex Bregman, Adley Rutschman, Jose Ramirez, LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Kwan, Keibert Ruiz, Masataka Yoshida and Gleyber Torres.

Among those 10 hitters, Wade, Rutschman and Bregman possess the highest walk rates and are first, seventh and 12th, respectively, among all qualified hitters.

Let’s dig into their walk rates and discipline to determine how we should value these batters overall.

Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers

LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF – SF) | 21.4% BB

Wade Jr. has totally overhauled himself as a hitter, and the results are some of his best stats ever.

His 21.4% walk rate is not only a career-best but is also the current league best and is 2% higher than his strikeout rate. This makes him an excellent target for points leagues.

His strikeout rate is the best of his career since a 69-game stint in 2019 when it was 13%. And with such a high walk rate and a relatively low K rate, Wade  Jr. has a career-best .443 OBP.

Wade Jr.’s .260 batting average is not a BABIP fluke, either. His line drive rate is in line with what he did last year when his BABIP was far too low, and his career BABIP is just 8 points lower than his .271 BABIP on the season.

What has made Wade Jr. such a better player this year is an approach change that has led to his improved discipline. His career-low swing rate has helped him cut his chase rate down to 17.8%. Here he is talking about his approach at the plate this season:

What has made Wade Jr. even better this season is a 16.4% barrel rate and a 43.6% Hard-hit rate, both career bests. His pace of home runs should regress since his 24% HR/FB rate is nearly double what he has done over his career, but he looks like a brand new player who is very much fantasy relevant this season.

You need to find room to add Wade Jr. to your team if he is still available in your leagues and try to trade for him otherwise.

Adley Rutschman (C – BAL) | 17.3% BB

Rutschman is showing fantasy managers why he was valued as a top-five catcher and a top-75 overall pick in NFBC leagues. While his overall value may not match his current production, he is certainly worth the pick as a top-five player at his position.

Rutschman has essentially flipped his strikeout and walk rates from 2022 – 18.3% and 13.8%, respectively, to where there are now. His 2023 walk rate sits at 17.3%, while his K rate is 13.4%. He has a .291 AVG on a reasonable .310 BABIP, with a .409 OBP.

While his Hard-hit rate is a disappointing 33%, his barrel rate is much more respectable at 9.1%. Part of the reason he could sustain a batting average in the .290-.300 range is that he is not only barreling the ball well but driving it well too. He has a 33% line drive rate and has lowered his groundball rate to 26%.

Among all of Rutschman’s positive qualities, his discipline is probably his best feature. He is one of two qualified hitters (the other is Kwan) to be among the 20 best in chase rate, contact rate both in and outside of the zone and swinging strike rate.

Those that roster Rutschman should feel comfortable knowing they have a set-it-and-forget-it catcher, who is also among the best fantasy assets in the game.

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU) | 15.9% BB

Bregman has a 15.9% strikeout rate and an 11.4% K rate but has managed just a .218 AVG this season. This comes on the heels of a .259 season where Bregman finished with a higher walk rate than K rate.

The most glaring issue for Bregman this season is a .228 BABIP vs. a .283 BABIP. His line drive rate is 20%, which is higher than last season when his BABIP was .260. He also has similar hard contact data, and all of those data points suggest his BABIP and AVG should see some positive regression as the season progresses.

While his chase rate and contact rate have worsened slightly from last season, most of his other metrics affecting his power or AVG are similar to last season. Another issue facing Bregman is the lack of homers. He has three in 132 PAs.

One reason for the slow pace of home runs is a 6.7% HR/FB rate. It is nearly half of his career rate and about 3.5% lower than last season. This is despite a higher FB rate than his career and a FB rate nearly identical to last season. If he can maintain the rate of fly balls, the home runs should start coming.

Now is the time to buy from an impatient Bregman owner, especially with a dearth of talent at third base.

CTAs

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.


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