There’s no offseason when it comes to fantasy football, especially through the lens of dynasty fantasy football. With free agency, the NFL Draft and most rookie drafts in the books there’s no better time to start fine-tuning your dynasty rosters with some veteran acquisitions who are lost in the rookie hype train. And whether you are a seasoned dynasty manager or are just looking to get started, my following list of must-have dynasty targets for startups and trades will help you head in the right direction.
Let the off-season dynasty fantasy craze commence!
Erickson’s Top-10 Dynasty Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Jordan Love is slated to start for the Green Bay Packers in 2023 after sitting on the bench behind a future HOFer, Aaron Rodgers, for the past three seasons. Love was viewed as a raw prospect – a poor man’s Patrick Mahomes because of his traits and ability to make off-script plays – who needed time to marinate entering the league, so I am cautiously optimistic about his prospects this season and beyond. He played well in limited action in 2022 and possesses athletic traits that could translate to rushing production.
The weapons in Green Bay aren’t exactly elite, but there’s room for this offense to be a surprise if second-year wide receivers like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs take another step. Both guys can deliver downfield splash plays, which Rodgers didn’t necessarily take full advantage of last season. The new Jets quarterback went deep at the seventh-highest rate last season but finished below average in adjusted completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
Green Bay also added a plethora of weapons to aid in Love’s first season in the 2023 NFL Draft between Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
The Packers also have a very favorable schedule to open the 2023 season and the No.1 easiest strength of schedule for fantasy QBs per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool. Through seven games, they will face Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit, Las Vegas, Denver, Minnesota and the Rams.
Therefore, Love has the chance to surprise in fantasy circles early on even if he’s just an average quarterback in real life. He’s a player that I would be looking to buy across all formats because the market just isn’t convinced that he can be a legitimate fantasy quarterback option. But I believe Love can be exactly that, after honing his skills behind Rodgers for the last three seasons. Remember, part of why he wasn’t playing was due to Rodgers playing at an MVP level. Not necessarily because Love is a bad quarterback. His ability at the NFL level remains to be seen, but I am fully invested in finding out at the current price.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Only Travis Kelce saw more red-zone targets among tight ends than David Njoku last season, but he scored just three times. If Deshaun Watson‘s TD rate positively regresses closer to his career rate (5.8%) another year back into football, Njoku will be a top fantasy tight end in 2023 and for years to come.
The soon-to-be 27-year-old could explode, considering his 2022 usage as a full-time player with top-10 route participation. The athletic pass-catcher finished last season sixth in PFF receiving grade and inside the top 10 in several other efficiency metrics, including yards after the catch and yards per route run. It was easily his best professional season since 2018.
Njoku is TE12 per in dynasty league football ADP and TE9 in the dynasty trade value chart but slots in at TE7 in my latest dynasty rankings. Buy the dip that the Elijah Moore trade and the Cedric Tillman draft pick is creating for those fearing the additional target competition. The former Jets WR has yet to eclipse seven red-zone targets in any of the past two seasons. And Tillman will primarily operate on the perimeter away from where Njoku sees the majority of his targets.
Njoku had 20 red-zone targets just last season. Send a 2023 second-round rookie pick, Cole Kmet, or Dalton Schultz to snag the Cleveland tight end.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Damien Harris has been replaced by human meat shield James Robinson on a monopoly money and heavily incentive-based contract making him no lock to make the roster. The low commitment suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson’s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ lead back. And even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the big running back finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs.
Stevenson has a sky-high fantasy ceiling that is worth buying into. His combined size and pass-catching props are a fantasy manager’s dream for the running back position.
Recall that Stevenson’s strong campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not even fueled by touchdowns. Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10, on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression with the red zone role all but his, he will build off a strong sophomore season as PFF’s 11th-highest graded rusher.
And that’s why you should be aggressively targeting Stevenson across all formats. He’s got the requisite three-down skill set and size. All that’s missing is the TDs. And that should come in a normal functioning offense.
I am targeting the 25-year-old at his RB15 ADP in dynasty start-ups. It’s his backfield to lose in an offense that should be substantially better than last season. Give me Stevenson over Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, or Derrick Henry.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
Cam Akers was a total zero from the get-go, getting benched in Week 1 and he looked like he was going to be outright cut by the Rams. Eventually, Akers inherited the Rams’ RB1 role and he delivered as the fantasy RB4 during the last six weeks of the season. With LA in a rebuilding year, Akers will again be a truly polarizing player. Did he do enough in the final 6 weeks as the NFL’s leading rusher averaging 85 rushing yards per game to retain bell-cow-type usage?
The good news is that Sean McVay is remaining in Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the go-to guy in the backfield. Recall, that Akers played 100% of the snaps in the Rams’ season finale.
And with so many needs on the Rams’ current roster, they did not add any running backs in the draft until the sixth round. That means Akers will be competing for volume with Zach Evans, alongside Day 3 scrubs Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. Although it seems impossible considering his career arc, Akers isn’t even 24 years old yet.
His dynasty ADP is RB25. With free agency on the horizon, the Rams have all the reason in the world to ride Akers into the ground during a contract year. Send Isiah Pacheco, Mike Evans, or Gabe Davis to acquire Akers.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Jerry Jeudy stands out to me as a dynasty target because he has full-blown breakout potential after an extremely underrated 2022 campaign. No player scored more fantasy points in PPR with a sub-75% overall route participation than Jeudy in 2022. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%). And in Jeudy’s last six games: 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71).
He’s going to turn 24 years old this season, and I can’t possibly envision Russell Wilson playing worse than he did in 2022 under Sean Payton’s coaching. There are also rumors that Courtland Sutton could be traded, fully solidifying the franchise’s faith in Jeudy as their looked-and-loaded No. 1 wide receiver. Jeudy’s dynasty trade value is WR23, two spots lower than my ranking of him at WR21.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Brian Robinson Jr.‘s status as the Commanders’ starter on early downs entering the season will surely make 2024 free agent Antonio Gibson an enticing buy-low running back target based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production during his first two years in the league.
Remember that J.D. McKissic was released, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson’s 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.
He is the RB37 in dynasty start-up ADP, the RB32 in the dynasty trade value chart and the RB18 in my dynasty rankings. If being too high on 25-year-old running backs with ideal size, a three-down skillset, and proven production is wrong, I don’t want to be right. I’d happily gift a 2023 2nd-round rookie pick or A.J. Dillon straight up for AG. I recently acquired Gibson in a trade for Dillon straight up.
The whispers of Gibson getting more involved coming from Ron Rivera was truly music to my ears.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Rookie quarterbacks are a lousy bet for supporting viable fantasy WR production. That was my main argument against drafting Diontae Johnson last year, which turned out to be the correct approach. Johnson was disappointing with Kenny Pickett all season, failing to top more than 65 receiving yards or a weekly finish better than WR37. But in the case of Johnson for 2023 and beyond, I’d expect a major bounce back with Pickett entering Year 2 surrounded by a majorly upgraded offensive line.
Johnson’s ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and 137 total targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield and red zone targets were the most of any player not scoring in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year-to-year so buy low on Johnson, who was the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game. Per ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model, Johnson finished with the No. 1 open rate among all WRs in 2022.
Guys like Johnson don’t post back-to-back seasons with 26% or better target shares by accident. The Steelers’ WR ranks sixth in target share since 2021 and yet he’s WR32 in dynasty ADP/WR33 in the value chart and he is currently my WR27 in my dynasty rankings. Get the 27-year-old with two more years on his contract while George Pickens remains a darling in the fantasy dynasty community.
Trade Pickens, Kadarius Toney, or Christian Kirk straight up for him.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Christian Watson could experience a sophomore slump if Jordan Love can’t deliver as the full-time starter for the Packers. However, I’d remain a buyer of Watson regardless because Watson was absolutely dynamite as a rookie.
His 26% target rate per route run is nothing but impressive ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. Watson’s 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10 and tied with superstar Davante Adams.
And in a must-win Week 18 contest vs. the Lions, he was once again the target leader (23% target share), going for 104 receiving yards on a team-high five catches. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis in PPR.
If Watson takes over the downfield and red zone looks that Allen Lazard saw the majority of in 2022, prepare for a massive second-year leap.
The WR21 in ADP is the clear alpha in the Packers’ passing game with the current depth chart listed as Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose and Samori Toure. I’d happily gift Deebo Samuel or Michael Pittman Jr. for Watson.
Elijah Moore (WR – CLE)
Elijah Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could emerge as the No. 2 WR in the offense. Because talent is THERE.
As a rookie in 2021, Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson and Josh Johnson. Moore’s fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production for the remainder of the season. And his 12 PPR points per game average as a second-round rookie pick placed him in the same company as A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Michael Thomas, Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins.
I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There’s a path where he is easily second on the team in targets. And I wouldn’t completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022. Give me Moore with him heavily discounted outside the top-55 WRs per FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart. The former Jet is currently WR40 in my latest dynasty rankings.
A sneaky addition by the Bills this offseason was adding former Saints Pro Bowler Deonte Harty. He was hurt all last season after an impressive 2021 campaign. Worcester, Massachusetts’ finest saw an extremely high target rate per route run in 2021 at 27% and finished sixth in yards per route run (2.69).
That was enough to earn him a 2-year deal worth $9.5 million ($4.75 million guaranteed) with 5.5 million coming in 2023. It’s more than double the contract the team gave Isaiah McKenzie (2 years, $4.4 million) last season. McKenzie was recently cut from the Bills.
The signing also makes Harty the second-highest-paid WR on Buffalo, with Gabe Davis still on his rookie deal. I’m confident that Harty can deliver fantasy goodness if a starting opportunity opens in the Bills’ offense. The best part is he’s free sitting across dynasty waiver wires.
Buffalo is currently trotting out former 5th-rounder Khalil Shakir as their WR3, after drafting only rookie WR Justin Shorter in Round 5 during this year’s draft.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
DK Metcalf was one of my biggest dynasty targets last offseason and he did not disappoint even with a new quarterback. The super-sized WR finished as the WR24 in points per game and as the WR17 overall, but I’d argue that Metcalf left meat on the bone in his first year with Geno Smith at the helm considering his final output didn’t truly reflect his alpha usage.
He was the WR12 in expected points per game based on ranking 18th in target share (25.5%) and 12th in air yards share (37%). He tied for second overall in red zone targets with Justin Jefferson.
Metcalf is also just one of six WRs in the Super Bowl era to post over 4,200 receiving yards and 35 TDs through the first four years of their careers. That list included Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, A.J. Green, A.J. Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham was the 1.01 in the dynasty at 25 years old. Green was 1.02 at 26 years old. Brown is currently the consensus WR3 at 25 years old. Metcalf is 25 years old and is the WR14 per Dynasty League Football.
Ridiculous considering his body of work. Go get him with older WRs like Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, or Davante Adams. You might not have to even pay that much considering the team’s addition of first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba creating more target competition.
Jameson Williams ( WR – DET)
As a rookie, Jameson Williams remained buried on the Lions’ depth chart as the WR5 but he will undoubtedly be a starter when he hits the field in 2023 with D.J. Chark leaving town for the Panthers this offseason. The Lions also have no tight end of consequence on their roster and journeymen Josh Reynolds/veteran Marvin Jones duking it out for No. 3 wide receiver duties.
Chark led the team in air yard share (30%) and in total deep targets (15) when healthy in 2022. We should see Williams take over that role which also produced 61 receiving yards per game from Weeks 13-17.
And although Williams was extremely limited in 2022 with just 34 routes run, the former 12th overall draft pick was hyper-targeted when on the field with a 26% target rate per route run to go along with the league’s 6th-highest average depth of target.
The 22-year-old is the WR27 in dynasty league football’s ADP and can be acquired with players like George Pickens, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown, or Brandon Aiyuk.
And better yet, his six-game suspension to open the year makes him that much more attainable.
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