It’s Dynasty rookie draft season. Fantasy managers are having a blast adding the newest crop of NFL stars to their rosters and dreaming of their team’s dominance when they reach their potential.
Rookie fever is a natural feeling that comes with the cycle annually, but are rookie picks safe bets to add value year over year?
Let’s revisit last year’s class of 2022 and see where their current evaluation stacks up.
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- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Revisiting the Dynasty Value of the 2022 Rookie Class
Let’s take a look at the 2022 class of dynasty rookies and their current outlook.
First Round
1.01 Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | Current startup value: RB4
Breece Hall had just started to look like the 1.01 last season when he suffered a devastating ACL injury in Week 7. He flashed enough to retain his value, though, as he is still being drafted as a top-five RB in startups. Hall’s recovery seems to be going well, and he should bounce back with a robust 2023.
1.02 Drake London (WR – ATL) | Current startup value: WR17
Drake London is the first of a few players on this list that’s value is depressed because of his situation rather than his talent. London, by all accounts, looked the part of a first-round NFL WR in 2022, but the Falcons looked inept as a passing offense.
After spending a top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft, Atlanta seems even more committed to running the ball. London will, without a doubt, lead the Falcons’ WR room, but will it be enough to justify his ADP?
1.03 Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) | Current startup value: RB5
Kenneth Walker delivered in 2023 for the fantasy managers that put faith in him after his one massive season at Michigan State. Walker was a stud for the Seahawks, rushing for over 1,000 yards with nine TDs as a rookie. The fantasy football community reacted by vaulting Walker into the RB1 conversation until the 2023 NFL Draft occurred.
To no fault of Walker’s, the Seahawks spent a second-round selection on highly regarded RB Zach Charbonnet from UCLA. Charbonnet’s skillset and draft capital suggest Seattle’s backfield will be more of a committee going forward. Walker still holds tremendous value but is not likely a bell cow in the future.
1.04 Treylon Burks (WR – TEN) | Current startup value: WR29
It’s hard not to consider Treylon Burks’ rookie season a disappointment. One of the knocks on Burks coming out of college was his durability. That knock showed itself in 2022, as Burks played in only 11 games. There were glimpses of the talent that made him a top pick, and by all means, managers should still be optimistic about his career outlook.
However, the Titans’ offense is a mess, and the team appears to be transitioning at QB. Still, Burks is the clear top target on the team and could be in for heavy volume in 2023.
1.05 Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | Current startup value: WR8
Garrett Wilson would be the 1.01 if we were drafting this class today. Wilson wowed as a rookie, posting over 1,100 receiving yards despite some of the worst QB play in the league. The Jets have added future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers this offseason, so Wilson is in for some seriously improved QB play. He is flying up draft boards and should crack the top five amongst wide receivers by the kickoff of the 2023 season.
1.06 Jameson Williams (WR-DET) | Current startup value: WR23
Jameson Williams is a roller coaster. During his last season in college, he dominated the SEC at Alabama with his blazing speed before suffering a season-ending injury in the National Championship game. Despite fantasy managers knowing he would miss most of the 2022 season, Williams was still a mid-first-round rookie pick due to his immense ceiling.
Upon his recovery, he flashed his big-play ability, confirming the priors of his fans and creating hype for his 2023 campaign. However, a suspension for gambling will delay that campaign by six games.
1.07 Chris Olave (WR – NO) | Current startup value: WR12
A year ago, the community kept Chris Olave at the bottom of the upper tier of receivers due to him not being an early declare. In hindsight, that was a big mistake. Like Wilson, Olave impressed with subpar QB play, posting over 1,000 receiving yards in 2022. Olave gets a QB upgrade this year in the form of Derek Carr and should continue to ascend in value.
1.08 Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT) | Current startup value: QB19
Kenny Pickett was far from a perfect prospect, but he earned the only first-round draft capital among QBs. Being the only anything makes you a scarce asset, and that vaulted Pickett into the first round of superflex drafts. Pickett was nothing special in 2022 but was serviceable. He is a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues with some added upside due to his youth.
1.09 Skyy Moore (WR – KC) | Current startup value: WR59
No player with first-round ADP has lost more value than Skyy Moore. A small-school receiver, Moore was propped up in rookie drafts by his juicy landing spot in Kansas City with QB Patrick Mahomes. Despite the Chiefs having a Super Bowl season, Moore disappointed with a dismal 22-250-0 receiving line for the 2022 campaign.
1.10 Christian Watson (WR – GB) | Current startup value: WR18
Christian Watson was a gamble as a raw, FCS receiver out of North Dakota State. The Packers bet on his athletic traits and won. Watson was dominant at times as a rookie, including a four-game stretch where he scored seven touchdowns. He is entrenched as the Packers’ No. 1 WR, but Jordan Love is throwing to him going forward rather than Rodgers.
1.11 James Cook (RB – BUF) | Current startup value: RB30
Dalvin Cook‘s little brother flew up draft boards due to his projectability as a pass-catching back and probably because of his last name. Throw in a Buffalo landing spot, and you have a rookie first-rounder. James Cook saw half the touches that incumbent Devin Singletary did, but he did supplant Zack Moss to become the No. 2 option. Damien Harris joins the party to replace the departed Singletary, but Cook’s opportunity to be a fantasy stud is officially here.
1.12 George Pickens (WR – PIT) | Current startup value: WR24
George Pickens is one of the more polarizing players in the NFL. His jaw-dropping catch radius will generate a highlight reel, but many question his ability to separate consistently to garner a target share large enough to be a WR1. His history of character concerns and suspensions, along with the injury, dropped him in drafts a year ago. However, an 800-yard rookie campaign for the Steelers has him holding solid value at WR24 in 2023 startups.
Second Round
2.01 Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) | Current startup value: WR37
Jahan Dotson, the 16th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, did not see the draft capital bump that fantasy managers give first-round prospects. Dotson was drafted before Burks, Moore, Watson and Pickens, yet was going later than all of them in rookie drafts.
Dotson flashed as a rookie, specifically in the last five games of the year, where he earned 35 targets and turned them into 344 yards and three TDs. His value is trending up, but the Commanders boast one of the most questionable QB rooms in the league.
2.02 Rachaad White (RB – TB) | Current startup value: RB22
Fantasy managers applauded Rachaad White’s Tampa Bay landing spot as his pass-catching RB archetype seemed like a perfect fit for Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. In some ways, it was; White caught 50 passes as a rookie, along with 129 carries, spelling Leonard Fournette. Sure, Brady is retired now, but White demonstrated the skill set to be a potent fantasy producer and now heads the RB room in Tampa Bay. It could be an ugly season for the Buccaneers but a fruitful one for White.
2.03 David Bell (WR – CLE) | Current startup value: WR101
David Bell’s massive freshman breakout at Purdue made him a devy darling within the fantasy community. This resulted in him going high in rookie drafts despite worse NFL Draft capital than most expected. Bell was invisible for Cleveland in 2022, turning in a 22-214-0 receiving line. The Browns have since added Elijah Moore via trade and Cedric Tillman via the NFL Draft. Bell’s fantasy value is dead.
2.04 Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) | Current startup value: RB18
Dameon Pierce was relatively unknown when the Texans selected him in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He was a role player at Florida, never amassing more than 106 carries in a single season. Houston didn’t care; they all but made him their bell cow, giving him 250 touches in 13 games. There was a seven-game stretch where he rushed for 80+ yards in six of those seven games. Singletary joins him in Houston’s backfield in 2023, but it’s still Pierce’s group to lead.
2.05 Malik Willis (QB – TEN) | Current startup value: QB34
Once thought to be a first-rounder in the NFL Draft and the top fantasy QB in the class, Malik Willis fell to the third round, crippling his dynasty value. Some fantasy managers stuck to their priors despite the draft capital and should learn a lesson from that going forward.
Willis was flat-out bad in his limited run for the Titans in 2022. Bad enough to where the franchise has already replaced him, trading up to draft Will Levis in round two of the 2023 NFL Draft. If you can get anything of value for Willis, take it and run.
2.06 Desmond Ridder (QB – ATL) | Current startup value: QB31
Desmond Ridder is in the best spot to become fantasy relevant out of the trio of quarterbacks drafted in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. After taking Marcus Mariota‘s job, Ridder dodged the Falcons using an early 2023 pick on a QB. He is set to start the season as the Falcons QB with only Taylor Heinicke behind him. Atlanta’s offense is loaded with top-10 picks Kyle Pitts, London and Robinson. So if Ridder isn’t successful, it’s on him.
2.07 John Metchie (WR – HOU) | Current startup value: WR63
John Metchie’s rookie season was derailed before it even started, as he was diagnosed with cancer in July. It seems Metchie’s treatment has gone exceptionally well and that he will get his opportunity in 2023. He could be an excellent buy as Houston has a new QB in No. 2 overall pick, C.J. Stroud, and no clear top target for him at WR.
2.08 Alec Pierce (WR – IND) | Current startup value: WR62
Alec Pierce gained dynasty value when the Colts spent second-round draft capital on him to be their WR opposite Michael Pittman. The Colts’ season was a disaster, seeing the end of Matt Ryan‘s career and the beginning of Jeff Saturday’s coaching career. That second part is still crazy to say. Nonetheless, Pierce was just average. The Colts also drafted WR Josh Downs on day two of the 2023 NFL Draft, further muddying Pierce’s prospects.
2.09 Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) | Current startup value: WR58
The Giants spent a second-rounder on Wan’Dale Robinson after his massive 1,300+ yard season at Kentucky. His rookie season was quiet until Week 10 vs. the Lions, where he had 13 targets, catching nine balls for 100 yards. An ACL tear the following week would end his rookie season with just that one strong performance to gauge his future value. The Giants added WR Jalin Hyatt in the 2023 NFL Draft, but the alpha role in New York is wide open.
2.10 Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | Current startup value: TE19
The 2022 class won’t be remembered as a strong TE class, but someone had to be TE1, and that was Trey McBride. Arizona’s second-round pick was nowhere to be seen until Zach Ertz went down, and even then wasn’t very productive. Rookie tight ends usually take time to develop, but it’s not encouraging that he was out-performed by fellow rookies Greg Dulcich and Chigoziem Okonkwo. McBride must take a step forward this year, or his dynasty value will suffer.
2.11 Isaiah Spiller (RB – LAC) | Current startup value: RB65
Like Bell, Isaiah Spiller was a devy darling in college. Considered by many to be better than Hall before the NFL Draft process, Spiller’s value fell off the face of the Earth. Fantasy manager’s prior thoughts on him kept him in the late second round of rookie drafts, but even that was too early to take him. Spiller carried the ball only 18 times as a rookie and has little to no dynasty value.
2.12 Brian Robinson (RB – WAS) | Current startup value: RB33
The story of Brian Robinson’s rookie year is an unbelievable one. Washington already had Antonio Gibson at RB but spent a third-round selection on Alabama’s Robinson. Robinson performed so well in camp that he took Gibson’s starting job, but then… he got shot.
Not only did he recover from his injuries, but he was back by Week 5. Robinson went on to carry the rock 205 times for the Commanders, claiming the early-down role. He’s a nice dynasty asset if you’re looking for safe weekly rushing volume.
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