The lead up to the NFL Draft always generates many hot takes, for better or worse. Beyond the film grades and prospect profiles, the most buzz-worthy takes come in the form of comparisons. We don’t only want to hear about a player’s strengths and weaknesses, but we want to envision what they might look like on an NFL field.
The issue with a comparison is that our mind goes straight to a high-level player we are most familiar with, but not every prospect is going to turn into your favorite player or the face of your fantasy football franchise. That’s why I’m providing a low end, middle, and high-end comparison for each of the top prospects to give the full picture. It’s fun and beneficial to provide comparisons, but it’s important to understand the full range of outcomes. Let’s get to it.
Top Rookie RB & WR Comparisons
In this piece, we’ll look at some of the top rookie prospects at the running back and wide receiver positions and provide some comparisons.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL) – Round 1, Pick 8
Low End Comp: Melvin Gordon
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Edgerrin James / Saquon Barkley
High End Comp: Walter Payton
Melvin Gordon has tallied three RB1 seasons along with three RB2 seasons, resulting in six top-24 finishes out of his eight seasons in the NFL. He’s had a solid career, so it feels odd to name him as a worst-case scenario comparison, but that’s where we are at with Bijan Robinson. Gordon only topped 1,000 yards rushing in one season, but he did rack up over 400 receiving yards in three of his first four seasons. Far from a disappointment, Gordon was never truly special either and has faded significantly with age. Robinson offers a similar build and skill set, but at a higher level.
Saquon Barkley is another comparison that comes to mind, particularly with his receiving prowess. He’s been banged up a lot and has been in the league for just five years, so the longevity remains a question mark. On the other hand, Edgerrin James put together an 11-year Hall of Fame career as a versatile back running between the tackles and catching the ball out of the backfield. At 219 pounds, James ran a 4.38 40-yard dash with a similar physique and playing style to Robinson.
It would be fair to peg Edgerrin James as Robinson’s high-end comparison, since he is a Hall of Famer. But Robinson has a chance to be one of the greatest and if we are talking true best-case scenario here, he offers an upside like Walter Payton. Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith even commented on Robinson’s selection by asking, “could Walter Payton still lead your team?” Payton played 13 seasons in the 1970 and 1980s and posted an absurd 16,726 rushing yards to go with 4,538 receiving yards. There’s nothing sweeter than being compared to Sweetness himself.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET) – Round 1, Pick 12
Low End Comp: Cordarrelle Patterson
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Warrick Dunn / Jhavid Best
High End Comp: Dalvin Cook
C.J. Spiller makes a lot of sense as a Jahmyr Gibbs comparison, as the former was drafted ninth overall after churning out a 4.37 40-yard dash. Gibbs was selected with the 12th pick after running a 4.36 40-yard dash and the two mirror each other in size. However, Cordarrelle Patterson’s role and effectiveness is more of what I envision for Gibbs’ floor. Although Patterson is notably bigger, his speed and versatility have offered him the ability to line up in the backfield or out wide. Even if Gibbs struggles between the tackles, his pass catching ability should keep in a Patterson type of role.
Warrick Dunn is a throwback name that may or may not invoke a mental highlight reel depending on your age. Dunn, standing just 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, was reported to have run an unconfirmed 4.28 40-yard dash. Dunn was as shifty as he was fast, with the vision to sneak into the second level before speeding past the secondary. The NFL has certainly changed since his playing days, but Jhavid Best offers a more recent comparison. Although his career was cut short with injuries, he was lightning during his Lions tenure. The hope is that Gibbs can offer the same explosiveness in a healthier body, but I believe that Detroit has even higher hopes.
When I watch Gibbs, his running style reminds me of Dalvin Cook. Despite Gibbs being about 10 pounds lighter, the two are similar in size and share in their elite footwork. Both have a sudden and explosive downhill running style with decisive cuts. Gibbs, however, offers more top end speed and is a better pass-catcher than Cook. If he can show the type of vision necessary to gain consistent chunk yardage, Gibbs will be as good as Cook, if not better.
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA) – Round 2, Pick 52
Low End Comp: Joshua Kelley
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Ryan Mathews
High End Comp: Corey Dillon
One of the first players that came to mind as I turned on Zach Charbonnet’s film was James Conner, but I realized that comparison wasn’t quite fair to Charbonnet. Conner can be heavy-footed at times but that’s not the case with Charbonnet, who is an above-average athlete. If he struggles in the NFL, it will be his inability to piece all his tools together, something we’ve seen happen with Joshua Kelley. A more apt comparison to me is Ryan Mathews, who offered a similar combination of size and speed. Mathews ran with patience and a low center of gravity. He showed flashes of greatness and was an underrated pass catcher, but he never fully unlocked his ceiling.
DeMarco Murray is the obvious and most recent example of Charbonnet’s potential, but Murray’s run in the NFL didn’t last as long as we all hoped. Another throwback comparison, Corey Dillon is what I envision Charbonnet’s best case to look like. Dillon carved out a 10-year career from 1997-2006, clearing 1,000 yards rushing in seven of ten seasons. Dillon is one of the best illustrations of what a bigger running back with high-end athleticism can accomplish.
Wide Receiver
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) – Round 1, Pick 20
Low End Comp: Dante Pettis
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Adam Thielen
High End Comp: CeeDee Lamb
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a tough comparison. He’s a very good prospect, but not what we’re used to as a rookie WR1. He’s a well-rounded receiver who has experience playing different spots on the field. Although he’s a great route runner, he’s not a particularly fast receiver. Dante Pettis fits the mold as a recent prospect who entered the league with strong intangibles. Pettis was billed as an excellent route runner, with the ability to forecast blind spots and win with technique while also offering an ability to win after the catch. JSN is a superior prospect, but Pettis offers a glimpse into the downside of what that type of prospect can look like.
I envision JSN as an Adam Thielen-type of player in the NFL. Although he has a few inches on Smith-Njigba, Thielen similarly moves around the formation and wins primarily with his technique and route running. He has the subtle speed to change direction quickly and excels at getting open. He’s always bordered the line of a WR1/2 in the NFL. If JSN reaches his full potential, it could look similar to CeeDee Lamb. Although Lamb is still young in his own right, it’s clear that he is a WR1 who can play out of the slot or out wide. Lamb offers a bit more explosiveness, but they both represent a new wave of receivers in the modern NFL who have the versatility to move around the formation and don’t solely rely on their athleticism to win. Because of that, these types of receivers generally offer a high floor as long as they continue finding ways to get open.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) – Round 1, Pick 21
Low End Comp: Kevin White
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Dwayne Bowe
High End Comp: Brandon Marshall
When I first became familiar with Quentin Johnston, I was sure he would be my WR1 of the class. As I went through my process, however, I couldn’t get there with Johnston. Physically, he has everything you’d want in an X receiver. In a class littered with smaller pass catchers, Johnston’s 6’3″ frame stands out. With a reported 4.52 40-yard dash at his pro day, Johnston offers run after the catch ability along with his size for an ideal package. The problem is that Johnston doesn’t quite know how to use his size, evidenced by his 34.8% contested catch rate per PFF. That’s extremely worrisome for that big of a player, and adding to the concern is a 10% drop rate and struggles to beat press coverage. Kevin White offered many of the same appealing traits as Johnston, but unfortunately showed us how it can go wrong if the route running isn’t developed.
Dwayne Bowe was a tremendous prospect who put together a solid career, but it always felt that there was another level to his game that was never unlocked. Despite the consensus that Bowe was somewhat of a disappointment, he posted finishes of WR15, WR4, and WR14 during a four-year span. Although Bowe brought more physicality, his size, speed, and playmaking ability represent a reasonable expectation for Johnston, in addition to their identical arm length of 33 5/8.” Although Brandon Marshall’s arms are slighty shorter, I see a bit of his game in Johnston. Marshall had the ability to extend his arms and snatch the ball out of nowhere, but his best trait was what he did once the ball was in his hands. Marshall played with an explosive element rarely seen in players his size, which is perhaps the biggest appeal to Johnston’s game. One of the more underrated wide receivers of all time, Marshall tallied seven straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards, and accomplished the feat in eight of nine seasons between 2007 and 2015.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) – Round 1, Pick 22
Low End Comp: John Brown
Mid/Most Likely Comp: T.Y. Hilton
High End Comp: Antonio Brown
Zay Flowers quickly became my favorite wide receiver prospect in this class, which can be considered an upset as I am typically drawn to bigger wide receivers like Quentin Johnston. At 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds, Flowers looks and plays a lot like John Brown. Both are burners with quality ball-tracking abilities who play bigger than their size. Brown was a small school guy and not an early declare, like Flowers, but what is often left out of Flowers’ profile is the fact that he was considered a Day 1 or Day 2 draft prospect after his junior season.
Another four-year collegiate player, T.Y. Hilton represents what the total package of a player like this can do. Hilton is incredibly shifty and despite his size, he competed over the middle of the field when he wasn’t blowing past the secondary. A sure-handed, speedy wide receiver with sharp route running and toughness at the catch point is basically the name of Flowers’ game, who posted a 58.3% contested catch rate last season per PFF.
The more you watch Flowers on film, the more his high-end comparison becomes apparent. The fluidity he displays in his hips and body movement is reminiscent of Antonio Brown. Flowers offers more speed than Brown, who didn’t have a particularly appealing prospect profile, but Brown’s versatility made him an exceptional player. He was utilized behind the line of scrimmage, lined up out wide or in the slot, and won at all levels of the field with his technique. He won contested catch opportunities despite lacking in size, as does Flowers. It’s unlikely that Flowers is the next Antonio Brown, but his only real weakness is the same as Brown’s: his size.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN) – Round 1, Pick 23
Low End Comp: Randall Cobb
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Robert Woods / Diontae Johnson
High End Comp: Calvin Ridley
You could do a lot worse than Randall Cobb as a low-end comparison, but it’s tough to place a low-end comparison on a player with a seemingly high floor. Let’s be honest; Cobb has had a nice career but that would be a disappointment for Jordan Addison. I don’t expect Addison will see any carries out of the backfield, but the Cobb comparison comes into play if Addison is relegated to playing primarily out of the slot with a limited athletic profile. He’s steady, sure-handed, and can get open from time to time, but he doesn’t offer a lot of explosiveness or ability to create on his own.
We’ve heard the Diontae Johnson comparison for Addison, and that makes a lot of sense, but I also see a bit of Robert Woods in his game. Like Woods, Addison offers the versatility to line up all over the field. He spends time in the slot but also wins on the outside, primarily with his technique. Woods, however, has the benefit of extra weight that both Johnson and Addison lack. Although Johnson doesn’t have elite top-end speed, he wins with a quick twitch, sharp route running, and great hands, like Addison.
Beyond Johnson, another popular comparison for Addison is DeVonta Smith. It makes a lot of sense given Addison’s 173-pound frame, but another name to consider is Calvin Ridley. A featherweight himself, Ridley has a bit more speed than Addison but is a crisp route runner who beats the defense at all levels of the field. If Addison consistently wins on the outside, he can be as effective as Calvin Ridley and DeVonta Smith.
Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR) – Round 2, Pick 39
Low End Comp: Cody Latimer
Mid/Most Likely Comp: Miles Austin
High End Comp: A.J. Brown
Jonathan Mingo was near the top of my list for players I projected to be drafted higher than the rest of the fantasy football world. This is partially because of his athleticism and partially due to the film. His profile presents a ton of upside, but also plenty of risk. His production is spotty, but he lined up at tight end last season out of necessity, limiting his volume and proving his physicality. Because of the holes in his profile plus solid size and raw athleticism, there’s a wide range of outcomes for Mingo. On the low end, he profiles a lot like Cody Latimer did coming out of Indiana. Latimer presented many of the same physical tools as Mingo and showed toughness with a quick release on tape. Latimer, like many others, struggled to adapt to the nuances required to beat defenders in the NFL. If Mingo relies on his athleticism alone, he’s at risk of suffering a similar fate to Latimer.
Players like Mingo bust often and hit big sometimes, with few falling in between. At 6-foot-1, he is unable to rely on his height. But if you combine the athleticism and weight with the development of a full route tree, you often see a prolific NFL receiver. Despite Miles Austin coming out of Monmouth and going undrafted, he had a solid profile entering the league. Austin was able to win on the outside and get open while playing with athleticism and physicality. That’s precisely what I expect from Mingo, but where he can truly unlock his potential is what he does after the catch. That’s where A.J. Brown comes in, who also wore the number one at Ole Miss. In addition, both Brown and Mingo weighed in at 226 and the two are just an inch apart in height. Brown ran a 4.49 40-yard dash compared to Mingo’s 4.46, and each were selected in the second round. The first time you watch film of Jonathan Mingo, you’re likely to mistake it for A.J. Brown. Averaging 7.3 yards after the catch last season, Mingo is a threat to take it to the house every time he gets the ball in his hands. It’s unlikely he will become the next A.J. Brown, but if he can recreate some of the big plays that Brown has, he’ll be in good shape.
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