The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With the NFL Draft comes dynasty rookie draft season! We have you covered with our dynasty rookie draft coverage, and of course, you can complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our mock draft simulator. While you take that simulator for a spin to prepare for your dynasty rookie mock drafts, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock and analysis from Pat Fitzmaurice.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Here’s our take on a dynasty rookie draft. It’s a 12-team superflex league from an early draft position.
1.06 – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
Should we be excited about Gibbs’ fantasy outlook after the Lions selected him with pick No. 12, which was much earlier than he was expected to go in the draft? Or should we be concerned about the potential shared backfield he’s facing?
Gibbs is an exciting RB prospect whose talents would seem to be a perfect fit for the modern-day NFL. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Gibbs clocked a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, and that blazing speed shows up on his college tape. But Gibbs isn’t merely about straight-line speed. His agility and his sharp cuts are going to give NFL defenders nightmares.
What has fantasy managers most enthusiastic about Gibbs is his pass-catching ability, which should translate into immediate fantasy value. In addition to his 926 rushing yards and 7 TD runs for Alabama last season, Gibbs had 44-444-3 receiving. In his three seasons with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs caught 104 passes and had only two drops. Gibbs has frequently been compared to Alvin Kamara, whose speed, agility and pass catching made him an impact fantasy performer upon his NFL arrival. Gibbs might not have Kamara’s rare contact balance, but the comparisons are otherwise fair.
Gibbs will be a coveted asset in dynasty leagues, even though he’s going to share work. It’s a good bet that Gibbs will have a majority (or at least a plurality) of Detroit’s RB touches in 2023. In 1QB dynasty formats, Gibbs figures to be a top-4 rookie pick, with Bijan Robinson the only player certain to be taken earlier. In superflex leagues, Gibbs is likely to be a mid-first-round pick, going somewhere from 1.04 to 1.08 in most drafts.
2.06 – Michael Mayer (TE – LV)
It was a surprise that Mayer fell out of the first round of the NFL Draft, but the slide shouldn’t significantly affect his fantasy value. The Notre Dame product landed in a reasonably good situation with the Raiders, who needed a replacement for the departed Darren Waller.
A true dual-threat tight end who excelled as both a pass catcher and blocker at Notre Dame, Mayer frequently draws comparisons to Jason Witten, who was a top fantasy tight end for more than a decade. PFF awarded Mayer the highest grade of any FBS tight end last year, as he had 67-809-9 despite playing most of the season with backup QB Drew Pyne after starter Tyler Buchner sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in September. Mayer finished his college career as the all-time leader at Notre Dame, a school known for churning out NFL tight ends, in TE receptions (180), receiving yards (2,099) and TD catches (18).
Mayer is a high-effort player likely to maximize his potential. The 6-4, 249-pound Mayer excels at body positioning at the catch point, boxing out his defender like an NBA big man trying to grab a rebound. Mayer has reliable hands and consistently makes catches is tight quarters. And since Maher is such a strong blocker, he’s going to play a high percentage of snaps, maximizing the potential to accrue fantasy points.
The biggest knock on Mayer is that he has ordinary speed, unlike some of the other top tight ends in this class. He’s not a seem splitter who’s going to score many long touchdowns. Mayer’s overall athleticism is lacking as well. PlayerProfiler.com gives him an athleticism score of 99.0, which ranks 464th out of the 466 tight ends the site has ever graded.
In dynasty leagues, Mayer is worth considering at the end of the first round or early in the second round of 1QB rookie drafts (slightly higher in TE-premium formats, of course), and in the middle part of the second round in superflex rookie drafts. In redraft leagues, consider Mayer a high-end TE3. Although it’s not unprecedented for a rookie tight end to produce useful numbers in his rookie year, that is the exception rather than the rule.
3.06 – Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
The Broncos didn’t have a pick until late in the second round, so their selection of Mims with that pick is a noteworthy endorsement. Denver already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton at wide receiver, although both were rumored to be on the trading block during the offseason. If they’re both around in 2023, it’s hard to see Mims having an immediate impact. But if either of them is traded, Mims could end up being a Week 1 starter.
Mims is a versatile downfield playmaker who lined up both inside and outside during his college career at Oklahoma. With 4.38 speed, a 39.5-inch vertical jump and terrific body control, Mims is a big play waiting to happen. In his two seasons as a college starter at Oklahoma, Mims averaged 20.8 yards per catch. He holds the Texas high school record for career receiving yardage, and in his senior year of high school he had 2,626 receiving yards and 31 touchdowns.
The 5-11, 183-pound Mims is going to face more physical cornerbacks in the NFL and will have to learn how to consistently defeat press coverage.
In dynasty leagues, Mims will probably come off the board in the early-to-mid second round in 1QB rookie drafts and late in the second round in superflex drafts.
4.06 – Xavier Hutchinson (WR – HOU)
Hutchinson fell into the sixth round of the NFL Draft, which would seem to bode ill for his dynasty outlook. He landed in a pretty good spot, however, going to the Texans, who aren’t exactly flush with WR talent. The Texans’ depth chart at wide receiver includes Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Noah Brown and rookie Nathaniel “Tank” Dell.
Hutchinson was a productive three-year starter at Iowa State, wrapping up his college career with a 107-catch, 1,171-yard, 6-TD season in 2022. Hutchinson’s strengths are body control and ball-tracking. At 6-2 and 203 pounds, his size is a plus, and he has respectable speed for a bigger receiver, clocking a 4.53 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Hutchinson offers schematic flexibility: He mostly lined up as an X-receiver at Iowa State but could be used as a Z or as a big slot receiver. Perhaps the biggest knock on Hutchinson is that he didn’t have a lot of big plays at Iowa State. He averaged only 11.5 yards per catch during his three years with the Cyclones and scored only 15 touchdowns in 37 games.
There are worse late-round dart throws in your dynasty rookie draft than Hutchinson, who has a chance to work his way up the Texans’ flimsy WR depth chart.
5.06 – Parker Washington (WR – JAC)
Washington probably wasn’t going to be a coveted asset in dynasty rookie drafts no matter where he landed, but his landing spot seems especially unfortunate. He was a sixth-round selection of the Jaguars, who already have Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones at wide receiver. Washington might make the roster, but he’s unlikely to make any sort of meaningful contribution as a rookie.
Parker is a solid possession receiver who does his best work against zone coverage and is strong after the catch. The 5-10, 204-pound Washington has a physical style and isn’t afraid to make tough catches in traffic. There aren’t a lot of big plays on Parker’s resume. He averaged 13.2 yards per catch at Penn State and had 12 TD catches in his 32 games with the Nittany Lions. Although Washington ran a 4.49 at the NFL Scouting Combine, his acceleration and athleticism are ordinary.
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