Dynasty rookie mock draft season is in full season, and although Superflex is the bell of the ball this time of year, it’s time we give some love to single quarterback leagues. This draft class is unique, with a generational talent up top, but it quickly tails off before a large tier of talented players presents themselves from late Round 1 through Round 2.
Going through this mock draft shows how I would prioritize these players, but it also reinforced the appeal of the second round. I’m interested in many names that just missed this list but will be scooped up shortly after the top 10, and that is where I see a sweet spot.
Dynasty rookie mock draft season is in full season, and although Superflex is the bell of the ball this time of year, it’s time we give some love to single quarterback leagues. This draft class is unique, with a generational talent up top, but it quickly tails off before a large tier of talented players presents themselves from late Round 1 through Round 2.
Going through this mock draft shows how I would prioritize these players, but it also reinforced the appeal of the second round. I’m interested in many names that just missed this list but will be scooped up shortly after the top 10, and that is where I see a sweet spot.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 10-Team, 1QB
There’s not much left to say about Bijan Robinson that hasn’t already been said, but we now know the landing spot for this class’s consensus top pick. Although Robinson was considered landing spot-proof, it doesn’t hurt to know that he will be donning the dirty bird on his helmet. The Falcons spent the ninth overall selection on Robinson, one year after drafting Tyler Allegeir, who rushed for 1,035 yards as a rookie. Allegeir is a good back, but no real competition for touches with Robinson. In fact, it’s encouraging that the Falcons’ offense compiled the third most rushing yards last season, paving the way for a big rookie season from Robinson.
Weighing in at 199 pounds, Jahmyr Gibbs’ NFL future has been a hot topic throughout the draft season. After the Lions surprisingly made him the 12th pick in the NFL Draft, the topic has been turned up to a blistering temperature. The concerns about his ability to handle an every-down workload are valid, as are the questions about his role next to David Montgomery, but the significant draft capital points to a sizeable share of the touches. He may not garner a ton of touches around the goal line, but the Lions’ offense should offer plenty of opportunities for Gibbs with D’Andre Swift out of the picture.
Last season, the Lions running back room accumulated 486.8 expected PPR fantasy points. The combination of Swift, Justin Jackson, and Craig Reynolds made up 251.1 of those, and had those expected points all gone to one player, it would have been the 10th-most in the NFL. It’s fair to assume Gibbs will take over Swift’s role, but it’s also fair to assume the team likes Gibbs a whole lot more than Swift, and obviously Jackson and Reynolds as well. The offense and opportunity share won’t look exactly the same as last year, but the opportunities will be there for Gibbs.
This might be a surprising pick, and ideally, I would trade out of this spot and pick up Zay Flowers with a later selection, as I’ve done in my drafts thus far. In this scenario, however, I’m willing to take the hit on market value. The landing spot could be better, but Flowers is the most explosive pass catcher in the draft and finds his way to an offense desperately needing that element.
Flowers plays bigger than his size with the ability to win contested catches, burn by the defense, or create extra yards on short routes. He is fluid but is very sudden and quick in short areas, which is an ideal skill set in the Ravens offense. It’s clear that Lamar Jackson demanded more playmakers on offense, and the Ravens delivered. Not only that, but Baltimore also brought in Todd Monken, who has delivered two top-five finishes in pass attempts and yards in his four years as an offensive coordinator. In a class without the high-end wide receiver talent we’ve grown accustomed to, it’s a matter of preference between the top receivers. For me, the choice is clear.
Although Jaxon Smith-Njigba will settle in behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the Seahawks’ pecking order, he will be able to move all around the formation and thrive in the slot. JSN fits nicely in the Hawks offense as a compliment to Metcalf and Lockett, who work outside and win downfield. The target competition for JSN is less than ideal, but with the presence of the other two on the outside, he will be able to win underneath with his quality route running. With a potential out on Lockett’s contract after this season, 2024 might be Smith-Njigba’s time to shine, but he will need to prove he can win on the outside to take a big leap.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jordan Addison lead the rookie class in receiving yards this year. He slides into an ideal situation as a complement to Justin Jefferson, where he can run out of the slot and potentially move outside in two wide receiver sets. Addison is slim but smooth with deceptive quickness. Although he may not possess the upside as some others in the class, Addison is extremely well-rounded and reliable. Similar to JSN, his upside will depend on his ability to win on the outside, but he can carve out plenty of production of the slot in the Vikings’ offense.
In terms of upside, it’s tough to argue any other receiver in the class has as much as Quentin Johnston does. With the ideal blend of size and speed, Johnston has all the tools to be great but falls short in many areas. He needs development as a route runner, and he struggles against press coverage. He doesn’t win enough contested catch opportunities, but he does create yards after the catch. With the Chargers, Johnston will have time to contribute sparingly while improving upon his skill set. It all boils down to his ability to improve in those areas, but being attached to Justin Herbert gives him a leg up in doing so.
This spot in the draft is earlier than we would typically see the first tight end come off the board in a non-tight end premium league, but there are a few factors separating Dalton Kincaid from the typical rookie tight end. For one, most rookie tight ends are not attached to Josh Allen and a dynamic Buffalo Bills offense. Perhaps more importantly, Kincaid can appropriately be described as a slot receiver for the Bills. Brandon Beane, Buffalo’s General Manager, compared Kincaid’s feel for the game and route running to Cole Beasley while adding that the tight end has elite hands with separation ability at the top of the route. If he can win out of the slot with technique and feel for the defense, similar to Beasley, but separate downfield with elite hands and a 6’4″ frame, Josh Allen is going to be looking his way often.
A tight end and quarterback both coming off the board in the top eight of a single QB league may be the result of a weakened class, or it may be the outrageous upside that we have in Kincaid and Anthony Richardson. The most athletic quarterback to ever attend the NFL combine buttoned up his prospect profile with the Colts’ stamp of approval at fourth overall. We’ve seen how much of a difference-maker rushing quarterbacks can be with the likes of Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. Richardson will need to mature his accuracy, but he doesn’t need to be an elite passer to be a standout for your dynasty team.
There are many different paths to take with this pick, and I would expect a lot of variation on draft boards around this spot. Although you can poke plenty of holes in Jonathan Mingo as a prospect, he offers the highest ceiling of available players. Mingo is a compact, 226-pound playmaker standing 6’1″ and is dangerously similar to A.J. Brown on tape. He’s a dynamic athlete, offering top-end spend and physicality with the ball in his hands.
Although the production overall is lacking, Mingo was on his way to a monster junior season before an ankle injury took him out. After losing Matt Corral to the NFL, Mingo returned for his senior season but was forced to line up at tight end for a portion of the season. Wide receivers drafted early in the second round have fared quite well in the NFL, and not only does Mingo check that box, but he will also have loads of opportunity in Carolina with Bryce Young and an empty cupboard of pass catchers.
This selection may lie a bit outside of consensus, as have a few others in the top 10, but every prospect at this point has flaws. It’s important not to overvalue the landing spot, but opportunity and role at the running back position are vital. I was lukewarm on the other running back prospects in this range, and despite Achane lacking the size to jump into a heavy workload, you couldn’t have asked for a better fit.
Mike McDaniel, hailing from the Shanahan tree, loves to utilize small, speedy running backs. Achane can flat-out fly and will consistently outrun defensive backs when he gets to the second level. McDaniel is tremendous at utilizing the speed at his disposal and will find ways to get Achane the ball in space. Although he won’t be asked to run between the tackles much, Achane is the type one cut runner who can find a crease and blur through it. He also tallied 705 yards after contact last season, good enough for the 25th-best in all of college football. McDaniel didn’t pound the table and ask Chris Grier to trade up for nothing, he’s going to get this kid the football.
Others considered in the Top 10:
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
