Avoiding landmines in dynasty drafts will never be an exact science. Just as some players will become fantasy heroes from the later rounds (or even the waiver wire), many others will faceplant in the league and be deemed a “bust.”
For context, all of these players are supreme athletes and better at football than anyone reading this. A bust isn’t a bad football player, but instead one who did not deliver a performance that measures up to the capital to acquire him. Where I completely avoided the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Josh Rosen over the years, it is embarrassing to say I got caught up in plenty of Jalen Reagor and Mitchell Trubisky hype. The only thing we can really do is our best.
The 2023 rookie class was hyped up throughout last season. Many dynasty managers stockpiled 2023 picks to cast a wide net on what was to be a stellar group of future fantasy stars. By the time the NFL Draft rolled around, a good many of those touted stars lost a lot of value. This left a vacuum for certain players to rise up and gain value in rookie drafts based on flimsy stats like draft capital and perceived good landing spots. I am urging everyone to avoid these players at cost in their rookie drafts, due to their ADP writing checks their talent is unlikely to be able to cash.
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Dynasty Rookie Busts: Rashee Rice
Ah yes, our yearly dose of helium that causes the Chiefs’ pick to float into previously uncharted territory in rookie drafts. Enter a really solid receiver, Rashee Rice from SMU. The Mustangs were explosive on offense in the AAC, with Rice their best WR by far. Even with the gaudy production statistics, his tape didn’t reveal anything special to excite me about his transition to Andy Reid’s offense.
The Chiefs were all-world last season, opening a new chapter in their dynasty lore post-Tyreek Hill. The WR1 was obviously Travis Kelce, despite his dubious positional designation. Rice was drafted to fill in where JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left off. Hardly big shoes to fill, but Rice is light years behind JuJu as an NFL receiver and not even the explosive threat that Hardman is.
There is also the matter with his target competition in Kansas City. Skyy Moore is a much more polished route runner than Rice and arguably just as good at producing big plays after the catch. Kadarius Toney is an enigmatic option for Patrick Mahomes, but one defenses better respect. Moore was entrusted a great deal more by Reid and Mahomes once he got his legs underneath him later in the season. Even as a rookie second round pick, I have extreme doubts to whether Rice will ever be fantasy relevant.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
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