Avoiding landmines in dynasty drafts will never be an exact science. Just as some players will become fantasy heroes from the later rounds (or even the waiver wire), many others will faceplant in the league and be deemed a “bust.”
For context, all of these players are supreme athletes and better at football than anyone reading this. A bust isn’t a bad football player, but instead one who did not deliver a performance that measures up to the capital to acquire him. Where I completely avoided the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Josh Rosen over the years, it is embarrassing to say I got caught up in plenty of Jalen Reagor and Mitchell Trubisky hype. The only thing we can really do is our best.
The 2023 rookie class was hyped up throughout last season. Many dynasty managers stockpiled 2023 picks to cast a wide net on what was to be a stellar group of future fantasy stars. By the time the NFL Draft rolled around, a good many of those touted stars lost a lot of value. This left a vacuum for certain players to rise up and gain value in rookie drafts based on flimsy stats like draft capital and perceived good landing spots. I am urging everyone to avoid these players at cost in their rookie drafts, due to their ADP writing checks their talent is unlikely to be able to cash.
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Dynasty Rookie Busts
There’s no doubt we all felt instant excitement when TCU WR Quentin Johnston was selected by the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert is among the best QBs in the NFL and generally does a fantastic job elevating his receivers. The Reagor alarm is still ringing like tinnitus in my head. The Chargers picked two TCU pass catchers, neither of whom I envision as a good fit for Kellen Moore’s offense.
Johnston is a large-bodied receiver who was a big play waiting to happen in the defense-starved Big XII conference. He also struggled to run a full route tree and his YAC ability overshadowed his unrefined game at the catch point. I would hate to see a first round rookie pick turn into Mike Williams‘ little brother. They are so similar, with Mike being a far more well-rounded weapon for his QB. Exciting plays don’t score more fantasy points, so be careful with Johnston compared to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison in the same range. Even Zay Flowers is a notch above Johnston in my rankings.
Trying to roster the correct non-Kelce TE in fantasy football is a crapshoot. Similar to Johnston, the excitement around stud TE Kincaid peaked when Josh Allen‘s Buffalo Bills used their first round pick on the Utah receiver. He is certainly a talented player and definitely deserved to be a first round pick. My trouble with Kincaid is the projection that he will plop right into the starting lineup as a big slot receiver, instead of a more traditional TE.
Kincaid does everything generally well, but his route running was not a strength I had highlighted in the scouting report. The difference in getting open against pitiful Pac-12 defenses and against NFL defensive backs is astronomical. Kincaid often struggled to gain separation against keyed coverage on tape. Once a team put a decent plan in place, Kincaid was subject to erasure. I still want him on my roster if I can get him in the second round, but he is currently sporting a late-first (and rising) ADP. For that, I’ll wait and spring for equally talented Michael Mayer or Sam LaPorta.
Ah yes, our yearly dose of helium that causes the Chiefs’ pick to float into previously uncharted territory in rookie drafts. Enter a really solid receiver, Rashee Rice from SMU. The Mustangs were explosive on offense in the AAC, with Rice their best WR by far. Even with the gaudy production statistics, his tape didn’t reveal anything special to excite me about his transition to Andy Reid’s offense.
The Chiefs were all-world last season, opening a new chapter in their dynasty lore post-Tyreek Hill. The WR1 was obviously Travis Kelce, despite his dubious positional designation. Rice was drafted to fill in where JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left off. Hardly big shoes to fill, but Rice is light years behind JuJu as an NFL receiver and not even the explosive threat that Hardman is.
There is also the matter with his target competition in Kansas City. Skyy Moore is a much more polished route runner than Rice and arguably just as good at producing big plays after the catch. Kadarius Toney is an enigmatic option for Patrick Mahomes, but one defenses better respect. Moore was entrusted a great deal more by Reid and Mahomes once he got his legs underneath him later in the season. Even as a rookie second round pick, I have extreme doubts to whether Rice will ever be fantasy relevant.
The buzz around Tyjae Spears started when he eviscerated the wet paper bag known as the USC Trojans defense for 200 yards and four touchdowns in the Cotton Bowl. He then was a standout performer in Mobile at the Senior Bowl, which put his draft stock into a dizzying ascent. Just one taco over 200 pounds, Spears is an exciting runner with big play chops both as a runner and receiver. His third round draft capital isn’t surprising, but his rookie draft ADP has stayed strong in the early to mid-second round. Why? He figures to be able to compete for touches behind an aging Derrick Henry.
The bad news. Pre-draft medical exams revealed extensive cartilage loss and early signs of arthritis in his twice-repaired right knee. He also has gotten by without an ACL in that knee, which puts an ominous expiration date on the stability of the joint. Even if he is able to cope for having no ACL, the arthritis is a long-term concern for his flexibility and mobility in the knee. Look no further than with the precipitous decline of Todd Gurley. RBs already deal with the shortest shelf life of any position in professional football. Even if he can carve out some meaningful touches for the Titans, I have a really hard time investing a valuable rookie pick on a player with such a high risk of career-threatening injury.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
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